Hand I think I played well

[Bob T.]

I guess I've had a little success in similar situations, so that is why I don't think that Scott is out of line here.

The flop, 982 two tone. This is one of those flops that might be categorized as 'Something for everyone, yet nothing for everyone'. It is possible that someone has a 9 or an 8 in their hand, but it is more likely that a lot of playable hands have two overcards, possibly a straight draw, and maybe a flush draw.

The button raised preflop on the button, against two limpers. There is a very wide range of hands that he might have, and a lot of them are going to be overcards on this flop. Some of those hands will be big draws, and if Scott bets out on the flop, those big draw hands will have a combination value/free card raise on the flop, and it will be hard to determine exactly where anyone is on this hand.

We have a four handed pot, on the flop, and if either the BB or MP made a pair of 8s or 9s on the flop, they have a very fragile hand, and it would probably be correct for them to either bet out, and try and trap the players in between against the threat of a raise from the button, or check and raise, and try and make draws more expensive. Both of these players check called the flop bets, so I think it would be a good assumption that they likely have some cards in that morass of overcard/straight/flush draws that are out there. He has three opponents, but they all likely hold similar undefined hands, so it is almost like playing one opponent.

When the turn card comes, it certainly didn't help any of those hands, and if Scott was in the lead on the flop he probably is close to a 50% favorite to win this hand. It also certainly didn't help his hand from anyone else's point of view. His bet here, clearly is a value bet, and he is representing a pair of nines. When the button responds by calling, you can pretty well expect that he has overcards, and when MP calls, you have confirmation that his hand is probably in that range also.

River. That card didn't help the overcard hands and I think that his hand is very likely good, and now the question is how to play the river. I like betting here, because if he checks, the button might bet his unimproved Ace, and then MP, might call, and then you have the tough decision to overcall on the river with third pair. If you bet, they have to make the decision to call you, and they could either error, by calling with an unimproved ace, or folding a pair of sixes or sevens.

I agree that his play on this hand was thin, but I also think that he played poker on this hand, and took a hand that didn't look like a winner, and got a little extra value out of it.

A side note. While I was writing this, I limped in late position second in, with a small pocket pair, ended up playing against the blinds and the limper, flopped a set and managed to extract 12.5 small bets from my opponents. So I don't think that limping in this position is necessarily -ev.

[rigoletto]

Great analysis Bob!

[Homer]

Bob,

I have no problem with Scott betting out on the flop. In fact, I think it is the second best option behind check-folding. What I don't like is the check-call. I know you think that if one of the callers had top or second pair they would raise or bet out, but I disagree. This is a low-limit game. Players tend to be passive with hands like top-pair small kicker and middle-pair, especially when there has been a preflop raisor. I really think Scott should have folded after the button bet and two players called. For the same reason I don't like the turn bet. I did like the river bet, however.

-- Homer

[Jeffage]

"I put the button on overcards, probably AK or AQs."

Really, what do you put everyone else on? Both drawing? No one has a pair? You missed your set. You can fold the flop now in most cases. Betting out would be better than check-calling but I still vote for check folding here.

Take care,
Jeff

[bernie]

if you have the 5d you flop call is easy. it closes the action. though it could complete an openender.

your turn bet tells you that the button doesnt have anything. he's afraid of a 4? he has overcards. figure the other guy on a flush draw. though he could have more.

id bet the river. you probably still have the best hand. if you checked and the button bet, youd almost have to call since you induced him to bluff. although, if the other guy called the buttons bet on the river, you have to figure what he may be calling with.

i think it was fine

b

[bernie]

why?

what if he raises you with his overcards? and many players will. you cant call then. but closing the action getting 11-1 on your call is much better. IF you hold the 5d. if you dont have this 5d, then id fold to the flop bet.

i agree with Bob T. you played poker in this hand

b

[bernie]

the possible raise if sobe bets the flop. sure the button would be correct to call. but he'd be even better to raise. a raise puts alot of pressure on the 55 then.

i would raise this with overcards, if bet into, a great percentage of the time. depending on who's betting, even then i may still jack it. especially if the bet is from my direct right.

the check call is fine.

b

[JTG51]

what if he raises you with his overcards? and many players will. you cant call then.

Huh? Why? If he put his opponent on over cards before the flop, and knows many opponents would raise his flop bet with overcards, why would he bet then fold to a raise on the flop? If I was in SoBe's spot and had bet the flop, I'd be happy the button raised if it folded everyone else.

[bernie]

i think he said there was a great possibility of overcards. and JJ counts as overcards, dont they? what're you going to do, go in check/call mode the rest of the hand unless a 'zone' card hits? sure it knocks out the other players, but you could be looking way up hill through the big streets.

youre call closes the action if the button bets. youre getting 11-1 on your call. there is a chance it will check through on the turn. as many players quit betting no paired overcards on the turn figuring someone may have them beat. ill repeat, many players quit on the turn.

mason had a very similar hand in poker essays 3. where he had 33 and played somewhat the same. might be worth checking out. from his essay, it sounded like it was quite a thread, much like this one.

given the position of sobe, if i had the 5d, i would check-call the flop here. i wouldnt mind the button betting. it's a position bet anyway. it doesnt mean much. but a raise could mean alot more. especially if this players raising standards are tight. and he's just made your implied odds for the set a whole lot worse. especially if you need to hite to win. youre not going to collect enough bets from 1 player. it's not a good spot to be in. id much rather take 11-1 than get my odds cut by a raise. which should be figured in if youre planning on betting. you should factor your odds at this point, if you bet, to be possibly 2 bets on the flop. so youd be starting at 5-1. (8 bets preflop + 2 bets with the button raise to your 2 bets being put in on the flop) plan ahead. it's better to check call. you can always fold the turn if you miss. or, you could bet. as sobe did. and i think it was a good move. it may be safe to say that it's bet or check/fold time.

sorry, im not betting the flop here

b

ps... check out that essay. it's a good one

[Binkus]

I dont think I would have played this hand at all since it was going to be short handed it would be hard to get proper odds for making a set