My doooces

[lautzutao]

May I ask why you think it's the best possible move? How are you not putting someone on a big Pocket pair here? This call seems...curious.

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Hello.

Help!

I've been at the table for a few orbits.

UTG is a somewhat loose and very aggressive player (say like 28/16), MP2 is a bad player like (40/1), MP3 seems to be good, solid, and aggressive (and so far is like 24/15 but only after 25 hands or so and seems to be getting good cards). BB limps too much and is fairly passive overall but hasn't done anything remarkable so far.

Full ring 1/2

Fishaholic is SB with 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

UTG raises, folded to MP2 calls two cold, MP3 3-bets, Hero calls??...

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ok. fine. fair enough on the points raised...
i felt there was a great chance BB calls and a small chance UTG capped. unfortunately, BB folded but at least UTG didn't cap. MP2 called one more.

Flop: (4 ppl, 13 sb) T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I check, UTG checks, MP2 checks, MP3 bets... what do I do?

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I would fold, I think a good aggressive player is 3betting PF here with a big overpair way too often to think about putting in any more money here.

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interesting that you say that, since i was thinking a good aggressive player is much more likely to not have a premium overpair in this situation given the over aggressiveness of UTG and the badness of MP2. and he basically needs to auto-bet the flop no matter what...

(though i agree his actions are also consistent with a big pair)

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I guess I didn't really see the reads on the other players. I still fold here, you are unlikely to have the best hands and unlikely to get this heads up.

I don't mind taking one off on the flop here, I think that a 2 on the turn gives us the best hand pretty much 100% of the time and we can likely make up quite a few bets on the big bet streets.

[tyler_cracker]

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Since sets hold up about 75% of the time, you're ~10:1 to be best by the river). So unless we're fairly confident the pot will be >=28SB or 14BB, I'd dump it.

edit: This is also neglecting the reverse implied odds of hitting your set and paying to show a second best hand, which makes the required final pot size even bigger.

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Aren't the reverse implied odds already included when you say "sets hold up about 75% of the time"? If our set held up 100% of the time, the pot would only need to be big enough to account for us hitting a set by the river (somewhat less than 7.5:1). Since you threw out 75% => ~10:1, we don't need to account for making the best hand and losing *again*, right?

[tiltaholic]

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May I ask why you think it's the best possible move? How are you not putting someone on a big Pocket pair here? This call seems...curious.

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i don't really know.

it was part "my hand could be best" (they could have missed the flop)

and part, i'm getting ok odds to draw to a turn 2 if noone raises the flop and calls.

and part spewage. i'm not very good at the poker.

[DMBFan23]

also,

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Since sets hold up about 75% of the time

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what is the distribution here? is it linear? I suspect not. how often does 222 hold up versus, say, 888?

[droolie]

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Fold pf. Tempting but just not enough of a margin to take a shot at your set.

Fold the flop. You're spewing by getting involved in this hand postflop. Getting this entire crew to fold when most of them have two overcards to the board and one of them very likely has an overpair seems like a longshot. You will most likely need to take this to SD and I don't like your chances of dodging half the deck on the turn and river if you're miraculously ahead.

Now if your pattern mapper is working and you're spiking a river 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] I love it!

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So, I agree that I can't fold people if I raise.
I called thinking 14:1 was "close enough" if they're going to spew on the big streets (hoping UTG didn't check raise) and getting 16:1 when UTG and MP2 call.

bad?

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One of you doooces is tainted and you're not closing the action....bad? Methinks yes.

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Fold pf. Tempting but just not enough of a margin to take a shot at your set.

Fold the flop. You're spewing by getting involved in this hand postflop. Getting this entire crew to fold when most of them have two overcards to the board and one of them very likely has an overpair seems like a longshot. You will most likely need to take this to SD and I don't like your chances of dodging half the deck on the turn and river if you're miraculously ahead.

Now if your pattern mapper is working and you're spiking a river 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] I love it!

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So, I agree that I can't fold people if I raise.
I called thinking 14:1 was "close enough" if they're going to spew on the big streets (hoping UTG didn't check raise) and getting 16:1 when UTG and MP2 call.

bad?

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One of you doooces is tainted and you're not closing the action....bad? Methinks yes.

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The board is paired so both of the 2's are clean. Moves it from bad to marginal IMO.