AT hand that's been bugging me - Page 5

Yerma · #41 10-25-2005, 01:43 PM

The turn raise for a free showdown does not apply when that raise is knocking out a hand behind you that is drawing slim. Raising the turn here is horrible.

There is only one case where the turn raise would have worked out. Both you have to have the best hand on the turn with your AT, and CO draws out on you on the river, and he would not have called your turn raise, and UTG does not draw out on the river (in which case it was irrelevant what CO's chances were).

My calculations suggest that it is disastrous to not raise the turn about 1/50 times. So let the CO get his chips in there. He's inflating your pot odds for those times that you draw and lose, so his call is helping you out 49/50 times.

milesdyson · #42 10-25-2005, 01:47 PM

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My calculations suggest that it is disastrous to not raise the turn about 1/50 times. So let the CO get his chips in there. He's inflating your pot odds for those times that you draw and lose, so his call is helping you out 49/50 times.

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show these calculations please.

lautzutao · #43 10-25-2005, 01:48 PM

Do you want to drive CO out of this pot?

MrWookie47 · #44 10-25-2005, 01:52 PM

Yes, I do. The pot is large, and I don't want him catching two pair with his 9x, 8x, Ax, or whatever.

milesdyson · #45 10-25-2005, 01:54 PM

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Do you want to drive CO out of this pot?

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well i'm going to call down here and spend 2 bets to see a showdown vs. UTG (who has me beaten often but not always).

the pot is over 10 bb when it gets to you on the turn, and let's be real, CO is not drawing dead here, regardless of how bad he is (a hand like 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] has 4 outs against us). combine this with the slim chance that UTG can actually 3-bet us here, and you can see what i'm getting at.

Aaron W. · #46 10-25-2005, 03:44 PM

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We can check behind on the river as better hands like AK will probably call our raise fearing a made flush and check the river too us. So we're paying the same amount of bets. But hands worse then ours will probably still commit to a showdown. The only arguement for flat calling is so we can raise the river if we hit our outs, but lets face it, 4 flush on the board, its a brave man who bets out, and then calls our raise.

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This line is not effective against the type of player OP described:

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I've also noticed a tendency to overplay TPWK regardless of the action, or possible straight and flush possibilities on the board.

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So you will reasonably often be caught in a position where you're 3-bet, but you're still compelled to pay him off. Change your kicker to a queen, and suddenly you're ahead of many more overplayed Ax hands and life is much better. Because of the 9 and 8 on the board, you're losing to many more of the "playable" Ax hands than usual.

I think calling down is far better.

Shillx · #47 10-25-2005, 04:29 PM

Something isn't right about this hand. While I don't blame you for taking this line (kind of a cut your loses type move), there has to be a flaw in theory behind this hand. You are avoiding -EV plays on the flop and turn and that is fine, but that also tells me that 3-betting preflop is -EV as well. Let me give you an example that might illustrate it better.

Say I have 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in the BB and I take a flop HU against a very tight yet aggressive PFR. The flop is J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and I check and call. The turn is the T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and I check/fold. From an EV standpoint, check/folding the turn is the best play I can make. How is my play on 4th street? Most people will tell you that I played it perfectly. I will tell you that I should bet the turn. That is where the difference lies.

Brad

detruncate · #48 10-25-2005, 04:48 PM

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Something isn't right about this hand. While I don't blame you for taking this line (kind of a cut your loses type move), there has to be a flaw in theory behind this hand. You are avoiding -EV plays on the flop and turn and that is fine, but that also tells me that 3-betting preflop is -EV as well.

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I don't necessarily agree. The c/r hit OP as a hint that Villain has a stronger than average hand. It's a strange line for Villain. There are plenty of situations where we hit an A and are able to push.

As you say, it's also an example of how we minimize -EV plays post flop to help make the pf play +EV -- we recognize dangerous situations and minimize our losses when we see something that suggests we're behind.

I may be missing your point, though.

istewart · #49 10-25-2005, 04:52 PM

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Say I have 3 2 in the BB and I take a flop HU against a very tight yet aggressive PFR. The flop is J 6 6 and I check and call. The turn is the T and I check/fold. From an EV standpoint, check/folding the turn is the best play I can make. How is my play on 4th street? Most people will tell you that I played it perfectly. I will tell you that I should bet the turn. That is where the difference lies.

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Very nice point.

istewart · #50 10-25-2005, 04:58 PM

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Something isn't right about this hand. While I don't blame you for taking this line (kind of a cut your loses type move), there has to be a flaw in theory behind this hand. You are avoiding -EV plays on the flop and turn and that is fine, but that also tells me that 3-betting preflop is -EV as well.

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I don't necessarily agree. The c/r hit OP as a hint that Villain has a stronger than average hand. It's a strange line for Villain. There are plenty of situations where we hit an A and are able to push.

As you say, it's also an example of how we minimize -EV plays post flop to help make the pf play +EV -- we recognize dangerous situations and minimize our losses when we see something that suggests we're behind.

I may be missing your point, though.

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I think his point is that if you are going to 3-bet preflop, you need to play postflop in a manner that reflects the fact that you think your hand "matches up well" against his. If you can't play this semi-ideal flop very hard, you are probably better of folding preflop.

BUT his postflop play may have the highest EV GIVEN THAT HE GOT THERE, but it's up in the air whether he should be in the pot.

The correlation, as I see it, with the 32s example, is that Brad can't call the flop with the intention of check/folding the turn. Check/folding the turn is the best play ONCE HE GOT THERE, but he needs to have an reason that he is calling the flop other than to "improve."