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#43
10-21-2005, 04:29 PM
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Re: Flop a joint, river pairs board
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'll overbet the pot here. Bet an even $100. [/ QUOTE ] What can reasonably call an overbet (that I beat) besides A6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]? [/ QUOTE ] Any hand that has been calling you all along that isn't a busted draw. A busted draw won't call anything. T9 might call your overbet becasue he thinks you're trying to buy the pot with your busted draw, or otherwise senses weakness in your out-of-the-blue overbet. A standard value line here is to take small chops at the river with a bet you're pretty sure your opponent will call. Something like 1/4-1/2 pot, in many cases. And that's what I do most of the time, too. But I'm always looking for an opportunity to try to make a big score. Given that you surely have the best hand, and that there is an obvious busted draw on board, this could be that chance. Your opponent will fold to your big overbet often. But he doesn't have to call very often at all in order to make overbets more +EV than little chop bets. 
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#44
10-21-2005, 04:30 PM
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Re: Flop a joint, river pairs board
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Have you played on stars at 200nl or above? I have. You're thinking is quite backwards for this level. Most people understand the basics of the game. They understand draw heavy boards and they know how to maximize value on these kinds of flops or fold small pots when they get outdraws. Villian played this hand perfectly for a crafty player imo. He made it look like a busted flush draw on the river, whic was his plan right from the beginning (if I had to bet). [/ QUOTE ] Crafty or not this is simply spewing until he hits his miracle 6. He was beat postflop (until the river) and just didn't know it. Slowplaying 99 from UTG is very weak IMO. I would have at least CR the turn if I were villain. I don't think Villain was thinking about possibly being beat at any time in the hand and will probably pat himself on the back for being so skilled a player. Giving hero the opportunity to draw (assuming villain put him on a draw) is just asking for trouble. [/ QUOTE ] I don't know how you think this is spewing. Villian thinks he's ahead, but perhaps on the turn he second guesses himself. Either way he played the hand perfectly. I can't explain myself any clearer than I have. If you don't understand then ask another question. Perhaps I can elucidate this a bit more for you. Let's say that villian raises the turn as an example. With the texture of this flop(and considering a non-raised multi-way pot), he's folding out any hand other than an underset and maybe two pair. If he is indeed against an underset ot two pair, then he will get it in on the river regardless. Any other hand, like 87 has him beat, and a flush draw is of little consequent if hero is betting for him. Study game level theory.
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#45
10-21-2005, 04:38 PM
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Re: Flop a joint, river pairs board
I agree no possible way is this spewing. He is gonna fill up 1/3 of the time IF and that is a big if he does not have the best hand already.
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#46
10-21-2005, 04:44 PM
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Re: Flop a joint, river pairs board
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I'll overbet the pot here. Bet an even $100. [/ QUOTE ] What can reasonably call an overbet (that I beat) besides A6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]? [/ QUOTE ] Any hand that has been calling you all along that isn't a busted draw. A busted draw won't call anything. T9 might call your overbet becasue he thinks you're trying to buy the pot with your busted draw, or otherwise senses weakness in your out-of-the-blue overbet. A standard value line here is to take small chops at the river with a bet you're pretty sure your opponent will call. Something like 1/4-1/2 pot, in many cases. And that's what I do most of the time, too. But I'm always looking for an opportunity to try to make a big score. Given that you surely have the best hand, and that there is an obvious busted draw on board, this could be that chance. Your opponent will fold to your big overbet often. But he doesn't have to call very often at all in order to make overbets more +EV than little chop bets. [/ QUOTE ] What about all those times they would have bluffed the river if you had checked and all those times that you are beat? You make more money here in the long run by check calling. What is the purpose of making an overbet if the only person that can call is one that has you beat? This is not about if you have the best hand... this is about if you have the best hand when you are raised... and the villan is either gonna fold or re-raise you here to an overbet, thus the overbet does nothing except get the hands that would have bluffed you to fold. Of all the options I have heard the overbet is without a doubt the worst IMO. If the guy did limp with pocked JJ and was gonna call a half pot bet well you blew him out of the water and pretty much assured the only person you are getting action from has you beat. You have a strait with a paired board and someone showing interest in the pot.. that is not the time I overbet (and I do overbet a lot).
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#47
10-21-2005, 05:00 PM
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Re: Flop a joint, river pairs board
[ QUOTE ]
Against a thinking stars player at this level, when hero almost full pots the turn, with the texture of the flop, then he may believe there's a good possibility that he's behind. I can see a set flat calling the flop, even if it's draw heavy, but the turn may have confused him. Is a thinking stars player going to limp JQ, or call a flush draw on the turn here, no. My river action completely depends on my read. If I think he's a donk, I'll check/call hoping he'll bluff. If he's a thinking crafty player, I bet/fold. [/ QUOTE ] This begs the question... would a good player call with a set if he believes hero has the straight? He's only got 10 outs on the turn and calls nearly a pot sized bet... and, he can't expect to necessarily get paid off if the board pairs. So, the difficulty here is that a 'good' Stars players might already be out of the hand. I also think a crafty player might have air and be planning to bet if either the board pairs or a heart hits.
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#49
10-21-2005, 05:37 PM
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Re: Flop a joint, river pairs board
Not too crazy about the size of the river bet.
Bet more for value, check call I guess if stars really this weak tight, or you think he on a draw. Against 99% of players on 99% of sites I'm trying to get more money in on this river.
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#50
10-21-2005, 06:00 PM
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Re: Flop a joint, river pairs board
[ QUOTE ]
He only has 10 outs on the turn. Unless I'm so tired after a long day at work that I'm not thinking straight, I don't think he does have the correct odds. [/ QUOTE ] 1) Villian doesn't know for sure he's behind. 2) Hero looks like he likes his hand, which leads to... 3) Implied odds. 4) Position.
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