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#1
10-20-2005, 07:38 PM
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Re: another way to look at it
[ QUOTE ]
Anyone put him on Qh9h?? With his stack size and position isn't this a reasonable range and play? Especially if he feels he is against a very aggressive player?? Isn't this the same Dan that tried to push Ivey off a 9 set with 73? [/ QUOTE ] Posted this in the STT thread. http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...;o=14&vc=1 I guess since there is only 1 way to make it and the turn raise probably discounts it further even with the extra outs, no one is considering it. I would still put it in the range though. From what I've seen from Dan's TV play, although he is tight, his bluffs tend to be big ones against aggressive players that are capable of laying down a decent hand. 
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#2
10-20-2005, 04:48 PM
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Re: another way to look at it
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I would also disregard Dan saying he had a worse hand than top 2, he would never tell if he had 33 there. [/ QUOTE ] I agree. What Harrington says he had means nothing. He could have been ahead or been on a stone bluff. He also may not have believed Gigabet had top two.
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#3
10-20-2005, 05:36 PM
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Re: another way to look at it
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I would also disregard Dan saying he had a worse hand than top 2, he would never tell if he had 33 there. [/ QUOTE ] I agree. What Harrington says he had means nothing. He could have been ahead or been on a stone bluff. He also may not have believed Gigabet had top two. [/ QUOTE ] I sure don't.
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#4
10-20-2005, 05:12 PM
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Re: another way to look at it
[ QUOTE ]
1-the aforementioned pulling a big move to fold out at least TP 2-he may think gigabet is simply making a move on him with a flop bluff-call and turn lead, and can easily make him fold air. 3-he thinks there is a chance he has the best hand, but does not want to call the turn and be faced with a very tough river decision after giving up the momentum on the turn, so he raises now to make the river play much easier. [/ QUOTE ] 1,2 - I agree that Dan can be on complete air here. I think he has a very strong hand or nothing. 3 - He won't be facing a tough river decision. If he gets bet into on the river, it will most likey be in the neighborhood of how much his raise is for since the pot will be ~40K and stacks ~100K. That is why the bet looks so strong: Dan can play a pot that does not cripple him if he loses but elects to escalate. Dan and Giga understand this which is why it can be pure air, but I would think it is a big hand a lot more often, maybe 3 times as often (maybe more).
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#5
10-20-2005, 05:05 PM
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Re: another way to look at it
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I'm in the BB w/ J4. Folded to an aggressive SB who completes. I check my option. We both have 120k and the blinds are 600-1200. Flop is JT3. He makes a pot sized bet of 2700. I raise to 7k straight w/ my top pair no kicker. He calls. I put him on a OESD draw, a jack, a ten, or garbage with the intention of moving me off the hand on the turn. Pot is ~16k. Turn is a 4h putting two hearts on board. He bets 12k into me. I think my hand is definitely good now since it's hard for me to put him on a set w/ the lack of preflop raise (though JJ/TT is possible, but unlikely due to the largish flop bet), but I don't want to lose top pair, so I raise it to 30k with the intention of probably checking behind on the river. He folds, he probably had some sort of T or a gutshot. [/ QUOTE ] I don't like raising the turn here with J4, but it's close. Any hand less than Jacks and Fours and I really hate raising the turn. (The reason J4 I only don't like a little is that J3 is a very real possibility for SB if he comes back over the top) The reasons I don't like it are: <ul type="square"> [*]It makes the next action all in, and if SB pushes you have to call, but you really don't like it.[*]Most hands you are beating are laying down here if you raise, but may fire on the river if you call. SB likely has 5 outs or less if you are ahead (though I guess Jx [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is possible if you don't have the J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] for 12 outs).[/list] In other words, I don't think you get paid off by many hands you are beating since you are saying you are willing to play for all your chips here with your bet when you could have gotten to a showdown without putting a lot more chips in. OTOH, you get stacked by most better hands. If you had abosolutely nothing, I can see making this bet as a bluff against a good thinking opponent, and if you had a really big hand like a set I think you can make it and trap another good hand (and against a good thinking opponent like Gigabet, both of these or neither of these need to be in your repetoir). J4 is close to being big, but I really only see J3 or better continuing here if you raise. So if the only hands SB could have that continue are JT, J3, J4, or 33 (given the action), you are not in good shape against that range. OTOH, sb will likely fire again or at least pay off a river value bet with a hand like T3 (and maybe something like J8, but I am not so certain a hand like J8 leads this turn). I am not sure how you rule out a set here. If you have a good read that there is no way sb has a set, then raising the turn in your scenario seems better, but I still think you are looking at 50% equity if you get called. Also, the raise on the turn prices out draws, but offers a nice price for made hands. I really like the size of the turn raise. I could be wrong but I really think this is a very strong hand or a bluff. I'm repeating myself here, but I just think there is so much value in calling down with one (top after this action) pair and weaker two pair hands here that Dan is not raising those. Personally, I don't like raising JT in his spot since there just are not that many free cards that scare me, and position here rules (i.e. I will likely get another bet out of villain either by snapping off his bluff or value betting if he checks; if he is bluffing and gives up, oh well, but I think his most likely lines on the river are bet (fold) or check call if you check behind on the turn).
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#6
10-20-2005, 05:15 PM
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Re: another way to look at it
[ QUOTE ]
I'm in the BB w/ J4. Folded to an aggressive SB who completes. I check my option. We both have 120k and the blinds are 600-1200. Flop is JT3. He makes a pot sized bet of 2700. I raise to 7k straight w/ my top pair no kicker. [/ QUOTE ] I can put Action Dan on just about any other hand in this thread. J4o, however, is not making this raise on this flop to this bet from that player.
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#7
10-20-2005, 05:19 PM
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Re: another way to look at it
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'm in the BB w/ J4. Folded to an aggressive SB who completes. I check my option. We both have 120k and the blinds are 600-1200. Flop is JT3. He makes a pot sized bet of 2700. I raise to 7k straight w/ my top pair no kicker. [/ QUOTE ] I can put Action Dan on just about any other hand in this thread. J4o, however, is not making this raise on this flop to this bet from that player. [/ QUOTE ] harrington always says in his books that he likes to raise for information. I don't see why he can't be raising with J4 on this flop, although perhaps the pot-size bet is a deterrent?
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#8
10-20-2005, 05:31 PM
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Re: another way to look at it
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harrington always says in his books that he likes to raise for information. I don't see why he can't be raising with J4 on this flop, although perhaps the pot-size bet is a deterrent? [/ QUOTE ] This might be assuming too much, but if he knows who Gigabet is, he knows a raise for information with a marginal hand is the worst thing he can possibly do there.
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#9
10-20-2005, 08:00 PM
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Re: another way to look at it
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] harrington always says in his books that he likes to raise for information. I don't see why he can't be raising with J4 on this flop, although perhaps the pot-size bet is a deterrent? [/ QUOTE ] This might be assuming too much, but if he knows who Gigabet is, he knows a raise for information with a marginal hand is the worst thing he can possibly do there. [/ QUOTE ] Does anyone know if Dan knows who Gigabet is or if he does, does he know Darrell is Gigabet? I think many assumptions have been made about Dans read just because Gigabet is well known online. I wouldn't know him in a live game.
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#10
10-20-2005, 08:00 PM
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Re: another way to look at it
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This might be assuming too much, but if he knows who Gigabet is, he knows a raise for information with a marginal hand is the worst thing he can possibly do there. [/ QUOTE ]
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Hybrid Mode
