This hand has people talking

[Crimson]

I agree with Stheif on this one, i would explain more, but i think he has done a great job. If you disagree, please explain, because i can find no fault in his logic. I play it the same.

[sthief09]

3 players creating 3 situations:

1. donkbettor. if he's not betting a Q I'm not sure what he is betting. is he betting K4 into 3 people including a preflop raiser? I guess it's possible. a lower flush draw makes sense. maybe A5.

2. preflop raiser. he has us beat ~60% of the time. 60% of that he has 99-JJ. so we have a parlay. even if 50% of the time UTG has a better hand, 36% of the time the PFR has 99-JJ, and 10% of the time he folds 99-JJ (I earlier said 8% would be enough that we have to raise, but I'm not sure), then we can improve our position from 2nd to 1st on the flop a whopping 1.8% of the time. we had 50% equity anyway, so even assuming we win all 1.8% of the time, it only improves our hand by .9% since we were going to win 50% of the time anyway. now we add on another 1.8% but we'll hit a draw half of that time and it would've taken it down. so we took down the 12 bets in the pot .9% of the time, for a gain of .108 SB. so we don't even gain that much by making him fold. I've already shown why it's not a problem to let AK stay in the pot

3. the cold-caller. is he really even a concern to overcall a bet and two calls on a Q42 board with some kind of draw, considering we're not ahead very often

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
I see one reason to raise: to fold out better hands, and at 3/6 6-max, the chances that someone bets the flop with a worse hand, AND the preflop raiser folds an underpair to queens for 2 bets, is close to 0

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree that protection/promotion is not an adequate reason to raise. The difference is I see several other reasons to raise that you claim not to see. The total weight of all the reasons is why I want to raise.

1A. It could win the pot by protecting your hand. You may have the best hand in which case the players behind you have many outs against your pair of fours. You don't want them staying in for one bet. After bet-call-call, I seriously think it may be theoretically correct for Button to peel with J9, especially if he has a heart or two diamonds. Backdoors + button + implied odds equals a call, especially when you consider that it sounds to him like spiking a pair might win. Anyway, whether you agree or not, if no one raises he probably will stay in with that and worse because that's what people do.

1B. It could win by promoting your hand. Folding out a medium pocket when you are second best is a gigantic gain because of the pot size. It's important even if it's rare.

Now for the reasons you don't acknowledge:

2. This is probably a 55-60% pot equity hand when you consider all the ways you can win. The value mathematics of such a strong draw are very different from your typical 30% flush draw or OESD. Normal flush draws should seek "horizontal" value. Investing as few bets as possible while getting lots of callers provides the best return. Raising always hurts if it means losing a caller. Even if no one is forced out by the raise, you lose money if only one player calls and you break even if two players call. Only if all three players call both bets does raising show a modest profit.

Superdraws often do better with a more "vertical" approach. The total number of bets you extract from other players becomes more important and minimizing the amount you contribute matters less. Losing one caller only hurts a little and is actually profitable in some cases. When the raise doesn't force anyone out, getting one caller is slightly profitable and getting two or three callers is very profitable.

Raising a strong draw and hoping they call multiple bets may actually provide more value than playing for overcalls. All the signs are there for getting these coldcalls: the pot is big, the field is loose, and none of your three opponents is 'just a limper'. They all have done something more to commit themselves to this pot.

Anyway, raising is at least close to being just as good a value play. Close enough that reason #1 takes precedence.

Now come the less important reasons that add value:

3. You may save money on the big streets, especially if the field is reduced. You may get a free turn card, you may get a free showdown for your fours, and you may reduce the amount of turn or river action by intimidating UTG. Even if someone bets the big streets behind you, that's much better than UTG betting through you into a possible raise.

4. You disguise your hand no matter how you improve it. It doesn't matter if you catch the flush, the four, or the ace. If doesn't matter if UTG bets the turn or discretely checks because the turn is scary. If you just call flop bet(s) from second position and then come to life on the turn everyone is going to be really scared.

But anyone who calls the flop raise will probably see it through because the pot is really big and there is no warning that you improved. CO in particular might make a huge mistake by raising with a trapping overpair or because he hit an overcard.

5. The call-raise plan is lame because it kills your action in exchange for a small profit. I have a rule that this play always shows a flush draw or a set. I'm rarely wrong.

[sthief09]

that is a very long post and it's very late so I'm going to read it tomorrow because I don't like to be proven wrong before I go to bed

[timprov]

I like this line. I'd also like a flop raise. I think I might prefer a raise slightly, but it's not much to argue about.

The main advantage I see in a raise is that it makes you less likely to spend the rest of the hand going for overcalls when you hit. With the flop bettor to your right, if it calls through the pot is still going to be medium-sized, and you won't want to face the players behind you with two big bets cold. If you raise and they stay in, either the pot will be substantially larger and they'll have to call anyway, or you can drive the big street betting yourself, getting at least as much there as you would anyway.

[SpicyF]

I would never raise the flop here. You want the others in the pot as you will not win this unimproved, and since you need to improve you want as much money in the pot as possible. As for capping the flop when it get's raised behind you I think cap can be ok, but still I would only call since this will give you more information and definet their hands more.

As for rest of hand it's just auto.

[GuyOnTilt]

I love everything except the flop cap.

GoT

I haven't read many of the responses, but I think I'd go flop call/call, but not cap. Capping's not bad -- certainly fine for value -- but just smoothcalling the 3-bet can provide deception that could win hero MANY BBs on the turn and river if he hits. Also, with multiple opponents and no fold equity there's nothing wrong with proceeding a little cautiously.

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
Post flop you played it [censored] perfect.

[/ QUOTE ]

[BottlesOf]

Do you always play AXs in MP in a non-tough game? How often would you open raise here in MP vs. fold?