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[gaming_mouse]

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There are PLENTY of hands that you beat, he might play just like this, and will call a bet. They include:

TT, 88, 77, 66, 33, 22, any 4, 53, 52.

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Eric,

I think a 60 VPIPer also plays any A. Without counting the combos (feeling lazy), I'm pretty sure there are more combos of any-A hands than there are combos of the hands you listed above.

So even if we do not expect to get c/r'd by an A, we will still be losing more than 50% of the time that we are called on the river (again, I'm just ballbarking the math, but I'm think I'm right).

Of course, you could argue that an A would have raised at some point (making him less likely to have one on the river), but I'm not sure that's true.

gm

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Too funny. Here's how I see this conversation:

me: You might argue that we don't know his postflop SD%. I would respond that no one plays this loose preflop and then is suddenly tight heads up.

you: preflop and postflop are different! We don't know his showdown percentage!

There are PLENTY of hands that you beat, he might play just like this, and will call a bet. They include:

TT, 88, 77, 66, 33, 22, any 4, 53, 52.

Further, after he just calls a turn bet, there is every reason to believe that he does NOT have a 9, and that if he has an ace, he will just call the river. In other words, you expect that you will almost never be check-raised, save for exactly 23 hitting the gutshot.

Finally, arguing that you once saw someone play very loose preflop but then reasonably postflop is absurd. Almost everyone who plays 61% of their hands preflop is going to be very loose postflop. You don't beat these players by bluffing ace-high boards, you beat them by value-betting them to death. If you wouldn;t bet an ace, you're essentially saying that you need ace-above-average-kicker to bet here. That's too passive against a calling station. He can call you with king high!

I don't have a problem with checking the turn, but that's where the danger was. After you are just called on the turn, the river is an easy bet.

Good luck.
Eric

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If you bet this river, on this board, that bet can only make money off of someone who doesnt understand poker. This bet will not make money in the long run vs even most calling stations. You will get called or check raised by a better hand more than 50% of the time unless the player just sat down and is playing poker for the first time in their life.

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


There are PLENTY of hands that you beat, he might play just like this, and will call a bet. They include:

TT, 88, 77, 66, 33, 22, any 4, 53, 52.

[/ QUOTE ]

Eric,

I think a 60 VPIPer also plays any A. Without counting the combos (feeling lazy), I'm pretty sure there are more combos of any-A hands than there are combos of the hands you listed above.

So even if we do not expect to get c/r'd by an A, we will still be losing more than 50% of the time that we are called on the river (again, I'm just ballbarking the math, but I'm think I'm right).

Of course, you could argue that an A would have raised at some point (making him less likely to have one on the river), but I'm not sure that's true.

gm

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hi gaming mouse,

4x is just as common as Ax, and more likely to play the hand without a raise. Add in 36 combinations of pocket pairs, 24 combinations of gutshots that just made a pair, and the occassional king high what-was-he-thinking call, and you have a reasonable value bet against this very loose player.

A tight player wouldn't hold hands like 4x and 52 here, so you couldn't bet this normally. 61 VPIP though probably defends heads up with everything, so you bet the river.

Good luck.
Eric

No problems. I play this hand the same way against a 61/13/1. If he has an ace, you lose, but there is definitely value in a river bet against this type of opponent.

Sorry, I overlooked the 9 pairing on the turn.....still a good bet.