Ditch this draw or play?

[runout_mick]

[ QUOTE ]
Early in the PP 40k Guarantee. 10/15

Hero is dealth T7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on the button.

1 fold, donk utg(~750) min raises to t30, utg+2(~800) calls, an mp player calls, hero calls t30 and the blinds come along.

Pot = t180

Flop comes: Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

blinds check, utg bets t15, utg+2 raises to t200 all the action folds to me...

Do I have to let this go? I figure I'm about even against his range.

What do you guys think?

Thanks-

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is a call here. You don't want to raise and keep the blinds from getting in on the action because that bet of t15 on the flop by the minraiser looks way too weak. He HAS to be setting a trap, looking for an opportunity to re-raise.

I'd hope for one of the blinds to call or raise, and EXPECT the original pf minraiser to jam (nobody could be bad enough to minraise pf and then bet 15 into a 180 pot without it being a trap... nobody). At this point there's three, four, or five people going all in on this flop.

Not a bad scenario. I have a very hard time believing that if you call this flop, you won't be re-raised.

If this does just get called to the turn, there IS the chance you'll have a hard decision to make. In my opinion the potential rewards of luring the blinds in and hoping for a re-raise is vastly greater than the potential risk of seeing the turn without another action.

I just really don't want to scare those blinds away, I want this pot to be either HUUUGE, or small enough to walk away from at need, before the turn. Anything in between is marginal... (i.e. pushing and gettinng h.u. with re-raiser)

[Dave D]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Early in the PP 40k Guarantee. 10/15

Hero is dealth T7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on the button.

1 fold, donk utg(~750) min raises to t30, utg+2(~800) calls, an mp player calls, hero calls t30 and the blinds come along.

Pot = t180

Flop comes: Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

blinds check, utg bets t15, utg+2 raises to t200 all the action folds to me...

Do I have to let this go? I figure I'm about even against his range.

What do you guys think?

Thanks-

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is a call here. You don't want to raise and keep the blinds from getting in on the action because that bet of t15 on the flop by the minraiser looks way too weak. He HAS to be setting a trap, looking for an opportunity to re-raise.

I'd hope for one of the blinds to call or raise, and EXPECT the original pf minraiser to jam (nobody could be bad enough to minraise pf and then bet 15 into a 180 pot without it being a trap... nobody). At this point there's three, four, or five people going all in on this flop.

Not a bad scenario. I have a very hard time believing that if you call this flop, you won't be re-raised.

If this does just get called to the turn, there IS the chance you'll have a hard decision to make. In my opinion the potential rewards of luring the blinds in and hoping for a re-raise is vastly greater than the potential risk of seeing the turn without another action.

I just really don't want to scare those blinds away, I want this pot to be either HUUUGE, or small enough to walk away from at need, before the turn. Anything in between is marginal... (i.e. pushing and gettinng h.u. with re-raiser)

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank you sir.

[MLG]

No, worst case scenario is you call, UTG folds, you make your hand and then don't make a dime more from the villain. You seem to think that if you make your hand on the turn you will magically automatically get called. You are trading the chance that you will lose your action, and the chance that UTG will call a push anyway, for a chance at an extra 200. That is a bad trade off.

[DarrenX]

[ QUOTE ]
(nobody could be bad enough to minraise pf and then bet 15 into a 180 pot without it being a trap... nobody).

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's my indepth take on the minraise preflop and the minbet on the flop:

Donk gets two cards, (probably sooted) then sees the pretty RAISE 30 button. He thinks, "gee, TWO cards higher than ten? I should bet"

After the flop, he realizes he now has FIVE pretty cards- he's a little bummed that apparently he has to SHARE 3 of those cards with other people, but not bummed enough to press the BET 15 button. WHEEEEE!!! Isn't poker fun? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

No trap.

[Dave D]

[ QUOTE ]
No, worst case scenario is you call, UTG folds, you make your hand and then don't make a dime more from the villain. You seem to think that if you make your hand on the turn you will magically automatically get called. You are trading the chance that you will lose your action, and the chance that UTG will call a push anyway, for a chance at an extra 200. That is a bad trade off.

[/ QUOTE ]

Both blinds fold, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 decides to get super scared after pot betting the flop and fold to any bet when you make your hand on the turn?

Highly highly unlikely, especially in this tournament.

[runout_mick]

You seriously think that minbet doesn't look fishy enough to hope for a re-raise from him? I think he's just twitching to re-raise...

[runout_mick]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
(nobody could be bad enough to minraise pf and then bet 15 into a 180 pot without it being a trap... nobody).

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's my indepth take on the minraise preflop and the minbet on the flop:

Donk gets two cards, (probably sooted) then sees the pretty RAISE 30 button. He thinks, "gee, TWO cards higher than ten? I should bet"

After the flop, he realizes he now has FIVE pretty cards- he's a little bummed that apparently he has to SHARE 3 of those cards with other people, but not bummed enough to press the BET 15 button. WHEEEEE!!! Isn't poker fun? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

No trap.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL, point taken

Still, I'm greedy. I'll bet on this horse... with a name like THUNDERBALL how can he lose?

[MLG]

you keep hand waving, and saying things like highly unlikely. That's all it is though, handwaving. Right now, your only argument for calling instead of pushing, is that you might not get 200 out of the third player, who might not even call anyway.

I have several arguments for pushing.
1. As you said, there's a 5% chance everybody folds
2. You will never be forced to put the rest of your chips in as a 2:1 dog on the turn.
3. You will never hit your hand and not get paid.
4. You will never be forced off your draw (if the 3rd player doesnt call, and the flop raiser pushes the turn)
5. You might get it in with a 60% chance to triple up (if both players call)

[Elaboration]

[ QUOTE ]
As far as checking the turn and betting the river, all I can say is that it works against 90% of average opponents.

[/ QUOTE ]

hmm...you must be talking about that 5k guarantee on Saturday morniings, right? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] That I could see.

It's abit moot, since I believed that utg+2 would reraise all-in if I did anything but put him all-in. Stacks are a little shallower on Party, starting at 1k.

Thanks-

[MLG]

what's your poin?, If he is willing to reraise, he is willing to call a push. that's good for you. and no, that bet is not a monster all that much.