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#1
09-01-2005, 12:49 AM
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An interesting sitituation .....
A discussion in the HUSH forum prompted me to make this post.
You're plyaing in a limit hold'em game. Let's say you have A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img],2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] on the button. It's folded around to you. You open-raise. SB folds. BB calls with 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img],8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Flop comes 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. At this point, let's assume that you both flip your cards over so you each can see one another's cards. (i.e. Fundamental Theorem of Poker). PokerStove says BB has roughly a 70% equity advantage compared to Hero's 30%. Accordingly, BB bets (as he should) because he has a huge equity edge. By the same token, it is out of the question for Hero to raise. However, Hero does currently have the best hand. According to the Fundamental Theorem of Poker, should Hero Fold or Call the flop bet? Adam 
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#2
09-01-2005, 01:02 AM
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Re: An interesting sitituation .....
i don't see why this is interesting. You are getting over 5:1 on a hand that is just over 2.25:1 to win. You profit around .5 SB from a flop call.
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#3
09-01-2005, 01:18 AM
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Re: An interesting sitituation .....
[ QUOTE ]
i don't see why this is interesting. You are getting over 5:1 on a hand that is just over 2.25:1 to win. You profit around .5 SB from a flop call. [/ QUOTE ] Well, when you put it that way .... [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] (I don't know, the whole problem was bouncing around back and forth in my head, and I didn't know how to properly calculate it - tunnel vision). Adam
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#4
09-01-2005, 01:21 AM
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Re: An interesting sitituation .....
LHE would be a lot easier if my opponents flipped up their cards more often.
Obviously you would call if for some reason (like his hand being flipped up) his hand range is reduced to ONE HAND, particularly one you are easily getting pot odds to see the next card against (and can play perfectly against on the turn and river, no more getting semibluffed off the best hand or paying off with the worst. And if he tries to semibluff three-bet a blank turn you can happily cap it up). You would need less than 1.14-1 to call this bet because of your ability to supremely outplay your opponent on later streets. Getting >4-1 folding here would be a tremendous mistake.
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#6
09-01-2005, 01:30 AM
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Re: An interesting sitituation .....
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] You would need less than 1.14-1 to call this bet because of your ability to supremely outplay your opponent on later streets. [/ QUOTE ] Hero flipped his hand up too. [/ QUOTE ] Ah, didn't notice that. Still, you are going to have the best hand on 24 of 45 turn cards (53% of the time) so it must be a call.
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#7
09-01-2005, 06:28 AM
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Re: An interesting sitituation .....
i fold. this ain't worth the money to fool around with. it's a tiny azz pot. there's a difference between having the best hand and having the best chance to win a hand. villian has a full 23 outs, thats half the fuking deck. hero has to dodge 23. villian has 2 chances to catch one of 23 cards.
yes based on a purley mathmathically point of view, hero should call. his odds are 1.05 to 1 and he is getting 5.1 to 1 on his money. but poker is more then math. sometimes you have to use common sense and judgment. easy fold, don't be stupid.
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#8
09-01-2005, 07:05 AM
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Re: An interesting sitituation .....
[ QUOTE ]
yes based on a purley mathmathically point of view, hero should call. his odds are 1.05 to 1 and he is getting 5.1 to 1 on his money. but poker is more then math. [/ QUOTE ] Wow. I really don't know what else to say. Just Wow. [ QUOTE ] villian has a full 23 outs, thats half the fuking deck. [/ QUOTE ] Let's see 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]s 3 9's 3 8's 3 5's 3 T's 9 + (3*4) = 9 + 12 = 21 So um yeah, 21 outs. And it's less than half the deck (as should have been obvious from the odds you came up with of 1.05-1, which should actually be 1.14-1. (21/45) < (1/2). Really. Try it.
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#9
09-01-2005, 07:23 AM
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Re: An interesting sitituation .....
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] yes based on a purley mathmathically point of view, hero should call. his odds are 1.05 to 1 and he is getting 5.1 to 1 on his money. but poker is more then math. [/ QUOTE ] Wow. I really don't know what else to say. Just Wow. [ QUOTE ] villian has a full 23 outs, thats half the fuking deck. [/ QUOTE ] Let's see 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]s 3 9's 3 8's 3 5's 3 T's 9 + (3*4) = 9 + 12 = 21 So um yeah, 21 outs. And it's less than half the deck (as should have been obvious from the odds you came up with of 1.05-1, which should actually be 1.14-1. (21/45) < (1/2). Really. Try it. [/ QUOTE ] why the hell would there be only 3 5's and 3 10's? are we playing party where the deck is rigged?
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#10
09-01-2005, 07:33 AM
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Re: An interesting sitituation .....
[ QUOTE ]
why the hell would there be only 3 5's and 3 10's? are we playing party where the deck is rigged? [/ QUOTE ] I already counted the 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and the T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] once. Furthermore, this call is not only immediately profitable but some calculations can show us that it is even more profitable since we can knowingly push our edge on the turn. This hand in all is a cool example of how extremely awesome it would be to actually see our opponent's hand and be able to make all our decisions based on that. After calling the flop, we will always charge him a BB to draw out on us the turn when he doesn't hit the turn, and we will never pay off when he does connect with the deck. Given that we have 29.09% equity, we can evaluate the immediate flop call's EV as follows: FlopCallEV = (-1 SB) + (.2909 * 6 SB) FlopCallEV = +0.745 SB FlopCallEV = +0.373 BB So by folding we are giving up almost 2/5 of a BB in terms of immediate value. However, we are giving up even more than that. Because of the ridiculous nature of our implied odds and lack of reverse implied odds, we have a positive expectation from the turn action. So folding here costs us even more than the 0.373 BB figure I just came up with. We can calculate our EV for the rest of the hand, assuming that our opponent never makes a FTOP mistake and we don't either, it will be (21/45)*(-0.5 BB) + (45-21)/45 * (21/44) * (-0.5 BB - 1 BB) + (45-21)/45 * (44-21)/44 * (+1.5 BB + 2.5 BB) which comes out to +0.48 BB So folding here actually cost you a profit of almost a full small bet. If the small blind isn't totally dropped for the rake as I assumed in my calculations, it would be costing you even more. So, yeah, folding really sucks.
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