Why SNGs have MORE variance than ring games

[45suited]

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This just simply can't be true. The players down there are really really really bad and unobservant. So why waste the money on advertizing that they're not going to pay any attention to anyway, when you could just skip to "nutpeddle?"

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Advertising is unnecessary in 25 NL. Most of my profit in 25 NL comes from 3 sources:

1) Nut peddling (of course)
2) Value betting in short handed pots
3) Snapping off the bluffs of habitual bluffers

I really don't see any reason why a player on the 11s with an ROI of 10% or below should not try 25 NL. The money is good and it will improve their overall play.

I understand that SNG's are a unique animal, but to say that improving one's post flop play will not help in SNGs is obviously wrong as there is still SOME post flop play in SNGs. It can even help your heads up game a LOT if you arrive to the final two with the blinds low enough to not be in push / fold mode. If you could increase your 1st / 2nd ratio in this manner, your ROI would jump dramatically.

But anyway, back to the OP. I have a relatively small sample in 25 NL, but I think that the play there is so weak that my variance could actually be lower in that game (even though I crush lower limit SNGs). I honestly don't have a large enough sample size to give this answer with any certainty though.

The SNG format, although one can become very skilled at it, still becomes an all-in luckfest to a certain extent when the blinds get high. In 25 NL, nut peddling against an opponent who thinks TPTK is the nuts (and will put all his money in with it, which is not uncommon) really cuts down on variance.

[AleoMagus]

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if we want an accurate estimate of variance, we should assume identical ability in both.

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In a way, this notion is what I'm really so opposed to in this thread.

What the heck is identical ability in both?

So many of the skills required are so different. I know a lot of players who can crush one game, but are losers in another. Or, for the purposes of this thread, can crush one game, but only make a very small profit in another. This is not uncommon.

Regards
Brad S

Ok, good point, Im definatly guilty of that.

[gildwulf]

I think all of you are missing an extremely important point: ROI is not set in stone, and SNGs are a learning process. Just because someone has 10% ROI at the 20s doesn't mean they will have 10% ROI at the 20s 4 months from now. So telling someone they should only play cash games because they aren't good enough (yet!) at SNGs is, well, pretty silly.

[45suited]

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I think all of you are missing an extremely important point: ROI is not set in stone, and SNGs are a learning process. Just because someone has 10% ROI at the 20s doesn't mean they will have 10% ROI at the 20s 4 months from now. So telling someone they should only play cash games because they aren't good enough (yet!) at SNGs is, well, pretty silly.

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Agreed... My point was that I don't understand why struggling SNGers don't try ring games in order to improve their overall play. (Especially when 25 NL is so soft.)

[AleoMagus]

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Game A (Sample size 1175 events)

$/event $0.95
SD$/event $17.90
Bankroll required for .5% ROR = $1388
Multitable earn = $23.69/hr

Game B (Sample size = 930 events)
$/event = $6.83
SD$/event = $83.41
Bankroll required for 0.5% ROR = $2699.18
Multitable earn = $24.24/hr


Both of these allow me to make my weekly nut (if I play the required number of hours). If my concerns are (in order):

Lowest ROR
Smaller bankroll swings
Profitability

Which game should I play?

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I'm actually a little confused here. You make $.95 per event with game A, but still get $23.69/hr multitabling. So whatever this game is, you get about 25 of them in each hour.

This as opposed to the other game where you make $6.83 but get less than 4 each hour.

See, when we start talking about different amounts of multitabling things get even more complicated

If our SD after 1 event is x, our SD after n events is x*SQRT(n)

So, if you want to know your SD/hr at these two games, what it really looks like is something like this...

Game A
(17.90)(SQRT(25)) or, about $89.50

Game B
(83.41)(SQRT(4)) or, about $167

So, given the very close profit levels in the two games, and given your listed concerns, I'd say game A is the clear winner with no other info.

Of course other info can be quite important here. Like I don't know what game you are getting 25 of each hour, but that doesn't seem like much fun however creative I get imagining it. Also, the game with bigger SD can have huge long term expecation not accounted for because it might further develop your game or allow you to eventually add more tables/move up, etc... But then you didn't list these things in your concerns

I'd love to know what these two games are

Also, don't misunderstand me. While I am talking about variance here, and while I occasionally talk about ROR also, I have never put much personal emphasis in any of these things.

The real point is just that it isn't as simple as saying "this game has lower variance than this other game".

Regards
Brad S

[SuitedSixes]

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I'm actually a little confused here. You make $.95 per event with game A, but still get $23.69/hr multitabling. So whatever this game is, you get about 25 of them in each hour.


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I included rakeback in the multitable factor, because when deciding which game to play the only concern I really have is if I can make my nut or not. Game A is 16-tabling ring games (I actually 19 table, but don't keep track of the other site on PT so I have no idea what my stats are there just that it adds to my hourly earn. Game B is my current SNG level ($55s, and I am most comfortable 3-tabling those).

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This as opposed to the other game where you make $6.83 but get less than 4 each hour.

See, when we start talking about different amounts of multitabling things get even more complicated

If our SD after 1 event is x, our SD after n events is x*SQRT(n)

So, if you want to know your SD/hr at these two games, what it really looks like is something like this...

Game A
(17.90)(SQRT(25)) or, about $89.50

Game B
(83.41)(SQRT(4)) or, about $167


So, given the very close profit levels in the two games, and given your listed concerns, I'd say game A is the clear winner with no other info.

Of course other info can be quite important here. Like I don't know what game you are getting 25 of each hour, but that doesn't seem like much fun however creative I get imagining it.

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Game A is neither fun nor imaginative, which is why the correct answer for me is C . . . a mixture of the two. If I had to play 40 hours a week of either game I'd go insane.

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Also, the game with bigger SD can have huge long term expecation not accounted for because it might further develop your game or allow you to eventually add more tables/move up, etc... But then you didn't list these things in your concerns

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At this point I have no long term concerns, only short term ones, but it is not likely that I am learning anything playing 16 games at a time.

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I'd love to know what these two games are

Also, don't misunderstand me. While I am talking about variance here, and while I occasionally talk about ROR also, I have never put much personal emphasis in any of these things.

The real point is just that it isn't as simple as saying "this game has lower variance than this other game".

Regards
Brad S

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Thanks. I really just wanted to show some numbers so we can have some kind of idea of how to go about comparing the different species.

[A_PLUS]

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Agreed... My point was that I don't understand why struggling SNGers don't try ring games in order to improve their overall play. (Especially when 25 NL is so soft.)

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Playing 25 NL will improve your overall 'poker play'. Whatever that means. It may or may not help your 10$ SNG play. You are acting like this is gospel, but I think it is far from it. I think 25NL play greatly improves your SNG play on UB, FTP, etc. Where there is room for losing a post flop pot and still winning the event. On party poker, with 800 chips, there is NO WAY the optimal post flop strategy from 25NL and a 10$SNG are anywhere close. If you think they are, you are playing one of them very poorly.

Instead of the generic "post flop play". How about an example. B/c everyone I can think of, my strategy is night and day. I think learning the game as a NL cash player has hurt my low level SNG play. I am constantly having to catch myself from making the correct Cash play / MTT play (I think they relate a lot better).

I think NL cash experience will help you as you move up in limits and stacks get somewhat deeper, but I dont see it in the 10-20$ range

[45suited]

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Playing 25 NL will improve your overall 'poker play'. Whatever that means. It may or may not help your 10$ SNG play. You are acting like this is gospel, but I think it is far from it.

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Anything that gives you greater understanding about poker will help your play, even in SNGs. I try to keep SNGs as simple as anybody, but post-flop play does occur, even in 800 chip games.

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On party poker, with 800 chips, there is NO WAY the optimal post flop strategy from 25NL and a 10$SNG are anywhere close. If you think they are, you are playing one of them very poorly.

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So are you saying that post flop play never occurs in a 800 chip SNG? Situations come up frequently, say from level 3 on, where you might be in a shorthanded pot, maybe out of the blinds. Playing NL cash games has given me the courage to make a read and stick with it, putting money into the pot with less than a premium hand or less than top pair.

As for the rest of your comment, you're probably right. I am the worst 30%+ ROI player (on the 11s) in the history of Partypoker.

Recently, this forum seems to have degenerated into a bunch of bitter, angry people who look to throw out personal insults at the first opportunity rather than talk about poker strategy. I admit that I'm not the greatest player on this forum, but I will gladly accept a challenge from you if you'd like to see how poor of a player that I am over a large number of 11s.

And as I said earlier, becoming a better post flop player can help you to increase your ratio of 1sts / 2nds, especially with the new blinds structure. There is actually sometimes room for postflop play when down to two players. This alone (increasing your 1sts) would make NL cash game play worth it for the low level guys.

[A_PLUS]

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Playing 25 NL will improve your overall 'poker play'. Whatever that means. It may or may not help your 10$ SNG play. You are acting like this is gospel, but I think it is far from it.

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Anything that gives you greater understanding about poker will help your play, even in SNGs. I try to keep SNGs as simple as anybody, but post-flop play does occur, even in 800 chip games.

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On party poker, with 800 chips, there is NO WAY the optimal post flop strategy from 25NL and a 10$SNG are anywhere close. If you think they are, you are playing one of them very poorly.

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So are you saying that post flop play never occurs in a 800 chip SNG? Situations come up frequently, say from level 3 on, where you might be in a shorthanded pot, maybe out of the blinds. Playing NL cash games has given me the courage to make a read and stick with it, putting money into the pot with less than a premium hand or less than top pair.

As for the rest of your comment, you're probably right. I am the worst 30%+ ROI player (on the 11s) in the history of Partypoker.

Recently, this forum seems to have degenerated into a bunch of bitter, angry people who look to throw out personal insults at the first opportunity rather than talk about poker strategy. I admit that I'm not the greatest player on this forum, but I will gladly accept a challenge from you if you'd like to see how poor of a player that I am over a large number of 11s.

And as I said earlier, becoming a better post flop player can help you to increase your ratio of 1sts / 2nds, especially with the new blinds structure. There is actually sometimes room for postflop play when down to two players. This alone (increasing your 1sts) would make NL cash game play worth it for the low level guys.

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Dude, what are you talking about? You really need to chill out. I have no idea who you are, or what you know about poker. Honestly, I dont really care if you have 200% ROI. I am trying to argue a point, thats it.

I didnt say you were bad at SNGs. I said it you follow the same post flop strategy at 25NL and 10$ SNGs, one of them HAS to be very wrong. The correct strategies are unique to the game.

I see your point in that if you have never played cash poker, playing anything post flop can be intimaidating. and ring play can cure that. I am talking about lots and lots of ring play. If you arent already a good SNG player, those habits (that win $$ in ring play) are tough to break when switching to SNGs. Trying to learn both at the same time will probably do more harm than good.

Lastly, I didnt mean to insult you, I have no idea as to the quality of your play. But if you want to challenge me to any sort of HU match, I am always game [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]