What a STUPID 4th place...what should have I done?

[zipppy]

[ QUOTE ]
limp?

how is that enticing - an Ace hits, what do you do? push maybe?

A jack hits, what do you do?

hmmm, an AKJ hits - now what do you do?

Limping is rubbish, why waste your chips

if the big stack has anyting about him and the flop is rags he will bet and you still might have the winning hand (ignoring this particular case)

Definately don't limp, thats worse than folding IMHO

Cheers

Damian

[/ QUOTE ]

I think playing postflop (limping) is only rubbish if you have 0 reads on your opponents and don't know how to play postflop.

>>>ZIP

[adanthar]

What the hell is going on in this thread? It's like the last six months and ICM never happened.

As to the hand, since it's a low buyin, raising to 500 and folding to a push or just plain limp/folding (while trying to get the short stack to push) are both fine. In a 109, I'd push since big stack isn't calling me without those nines.

[BadMongo]

OK, I honestly don't know where you are getting some of these numbers from, +1.76% is a ridiculous result that should tell you something is wrong. So instead of trying to sort out everything you did wrong I just did the analysys by hand myself (of course I used poker stove and the ICM calculator to makes things a bit easier).

I'm assuming a calling range of [22+, A2+, KJo+, K9s+, QJs] for each player, but it really doesn't make too much of a difference in this case as I mentioned before.

This range represents 23% of all possible hands, but since some hands (i.e. pairs) are less likely to be dealt than others, the actual chance of being dealt one of these hands is 20.6%

Against the given range, AJo wins 56.34% of the time, and therefore loses 43.66% of the time.

Ignoring multiple callers and split pots for simplicity, there are 7 possible outcomes for pushing:
a) BTN calls and you win
b) BTN calls and you lose
c) SB calls and you win
d) SB calls and you lose
e) BB calls and you win
f) BB calls and you lose
g) Everyone folds


BTN calls = 20.6%
a) % win = (.206 x .5634) = 11.6%
Chips = (1860 + 635 +300) = 2795
$EV = 34.2%
b) % lose = (.206 x .4366) = 8.99%
Chips = (1860 - 635) = 1225
$EV = 18.8%

SB calls = (1 - .206) x .206 = 16.3%
c) % Win = (.163 x .5634) = 9.18%
Chips = (1860 + 1795 +200) = 3855
$EV = 38.6%
d) % lose = (.163 x .4366) = 7.11%
Chips = (1860 -1795) = 65
$EV = 2.3%

BB calls = (1 - .206 - .163) x .206 = 13%
e) % Win = (.13 x .5634) = 7.32%
Chips = (1860 + 1860 + 100) = 3820
$EV = 36.6%
f) % lose = (.13 x .4366) = 5.68%
Chips = (1860 - 1860) = 0
$EV = 0%

Everyone folds = (1 - .206 - .163 - .13) = 50.1%
g) % Win = (.501 x 1) = 50.1%
Chips = (1860 + 300) = 2160
$EV = 28.5%

$EV Push = (.116 x .342) + (.0899 x .188) + (.0918 x .386) + (.0711 x .023) + (.0732 x .366) + (.0568 x 0) + (.501 x .285)
= 26.32%

$EV Fold = 26.56%

$EV Diff = 26.32% - 26.56% = -0.24%

This is pretty damn close to the -0.3% result that SGA gives.

[vabogee]

even if you put the two other large stacks calling range at 'super tight' (like JJ+, ATs+, AJ+), it's a marginal push at best (+.5%).

basically, fold if you like money.

[Xhad]

[ QUOTE ]
if they are morons aren't you better to push then and hope he calls with Q 5?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. In bubble situations with a tiny stack, an all-in showdown is usually more EV for the bystanders than it is for the people in the confrontation.

[jkiddy07]

I wouldve raised 3x bb. If i get reraised, i would seriously have to consider what type of players they are. If theyre a bunch of TAGs, I fold to a reraise all in and live to fight another day. Even if he has pp 2's, its not worth calling on a coin flip because you are on the bubble. Wait it out for a better situation and dont over use the all in especially when you have so many chips. Its stupid to risk your entire stack for 3 sb.

[ZeroPointMachine]

I was surprised by the ICM results on this. After playing around with it for a while I realized that the key factor here is not the relative strength of your hand or with the size of the shortstack. The key factor is the size of the blinds. If the blinds are 150/300 it becomes a clear push. I don't feel the short stack is small enough to be a factor in your decision at this point. If he doubles up once he becomes a contendor.

The problem with this hand(at 100/200) is it falls in that fuzzy 8-10 BB area where just because ICM says push doesn't mean you should. In this case ICM says you shouldn't. So, pushing is clearly bad. But that doesn't mean that folding is correct. How to play it depends entirely on your style and your reads of the table. Almost like playing poker.

I for one will almost never fold this hand.

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
limp?

how is that enticing - an Ace hits, what do you do? push maybe?

A jack hits, what do you do?

hmmm, an AKJ hits - now what do you do?

Limping is rubbish, why waste your chips

if the big stack has anyting about him and the flop is rags he will bet and you still might have the winning hand (ignoring this particular case)

Definately don't limp, thats worse than folding IMHO

Cheers

Damian

[/ QUOTE ]

I think playing postflop (limping) is only rubbish if you have 0 reads on your opponents and don't know how to play postflop.

>>>ZIP

[/ QUOTE ]

[Damian UK]

Just had AJ 4 handed, pushed got called by the BB with AK

should have let it go

OK, lesson learned

Thanks all

Damian
(hoisted by his own petard!! [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img])

[Sciolist]

I have to say that whilst I do respect the people who've worked out the EV in these situations, my instinct would definitely be to raise. I wouldn't want to go allin though.

Perhaps if I knew the big stack was tough and would just put me allin knowing I didn't want to bubble, I'd be passing or going allin. That isn't often the case in small buyin events though.

So my question is, when exactly do you steal blinds? Most games you have 4 players on relatively equal stacks at this stage. What kind of situations should you be looking for? If one guy has 3x bb and another has 10x, I can see the rationale for simply passing. What if everyone had 2k? Is it a push then?

Shall I go search for ICM? :]