A Lot of Fun Until Your Friends Find Out...

[hellite]

Read my previous post.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]

As far as reads go, you mean W. knew that villain had him beat when he raised the flop and got 3-bet? If not, when did he pick up the read?



[/ QUOTE ]

Hellite, honestly, I'm interested in why it is that you do not believe the given read. This is a rare case where the action is so telling that you can literally limit villain's hands to a range of about 6 hands (44-99). It is really a very standard exercise, and in fact unique how exact an answer it provides.

By the way, "marginally profitable" is a good thing. And 45% is not marginal.

[oreogod]

Well I like OPs hand from the turn to river. Preflop and flop are pretty bad.

Villian played his hand really well all the way through IMO (didnt see if he raised the river or not which would be no good).

I also put villian on 55-99ish (actually I was thinking 77-99)

[TakeMeToTheRiver]

[ QUOTE ]
Nice post Donnie. Great content, and lots of humor. Its good to see that the resident droids at least all agree with each other whether they are right or wrong.

As far as reads go, you mean W. knew that villain had him beat when he raised the flop and got 3-bet? If not, when did he pick up the read?

Why not take a look at my last post? Is there something wrong with my description of the events? Even if his read on villian in accurate, he is an underdog to win the hand and his turn call is marginally profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Based on the action, I think the read of "middle pocket pair" is good 80% to 90% of the time. Admittedly, I didn't catch it right away. But go back and read the original post again. What other hands are indicated by a cold call pre-flop and a three-bet on the flop with a 332 board?

And you are correct -- Will is an underdog on the turn -- anywhere from a 7.5-1 to 9-1 underdog -- but he is being offered 10-1 pot odds with a likelihood of at least one more bet on the river! That is a +EV situation! That is what you play for!

Here is your problem -- If a turn call is "marginally profitable," the call is correct. It's that simple.

[Free Tip of the Day: Kickers don't play when you have a full house.]

[W. Deranged]

In my opinion, villain played his hand perfectly. I got very lucky.

Pre-flop is certainly bad. I'm still looking to know why I should fold the flop automatically getting 12 to 1. Does anyone simply call the flop here and hope for the best?

[callmedonnie]

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...and his turn call is marginally profitable.

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[hellite]

Turn Play: Villain bets... The pot is offering you 10-1 on a call. I give you 4-5 clean outs here. I know you want all six, but given the action there is really no way you can be sure that if you hit a 10 you win (or even the K for that matter). I have mentioned some possible holdings of Villain which you seem to be very sure you can rule out. I'm not so sure, and given the flop aggression I really don't see how you can place Villain on such a limited range of holdings for the rest of the hand? The fact that villain 3-bet does not limit him to 44-99. What did he have a glistening in his eyes? You do say it is possible Villain could be holding 1010 though? Well there goes 3 outs, right? I am not saying this is especially likely but this should all be taken into account when you compute how many outs you have to win.

46 unseen cards, lets just say 4.5 outs give you a winning hand. This in fact is not really correct because of the possibility you split the pot. This means you will make your hand a little less than 1 out of ten times. Unless you are certain that if you make your hand you win AND villain will call a bet on the river this is a losing play.

If you give yourself the full six outs (I think this is incorrect)then this can be a profitable play.

[oreogod]

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I don't like the flop much because the entire table is behind you and you could easily be crushed by UTG. With a field that big I am assuming that the hand is going to showdown and that. The rest of the hand is simple though.


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Pretty much echos my feelings about the flop situation.

[callmedonnie]

He good read card.

[hellite]

I think everyone in this thread knows I screwed up the King kicker? Doh. All apologies.

Now, If someone can attempt to construct all possible holdings of villain, and still give W. six clean outs to win this hand without the possibility of a split, Please do come forth. Please.