I have to be ahead.....don't I? - Page 5

Aeioux · #41 08-04-2005, 01:10 PM

What is your deal josh, no need to be so weird about posting results...we are here to learn, and if people say the results help them, you don't need to act how you are.

Josh W · #42 08-04-2005, 03:35 PM

Learning WHY I'm acting the way I do is a very valuable tool.

See, when it comes back to me on the river for a cap, THE ONLY QUESTION that should enter my mind is "what percent of the time am I ahead?". Nothing else (regarding this hand) matters.

So, I asked it here. What percent of the time am I ahead? I said in my post I thought it was over 13%, so I should call. What do others think?

Elindauer says that by knowing the results, readers can figure out if there thought process is okay. Well, not really.

If I say BB had K9c and CO had Ac, so I lost, I SHOULD STILL CALL IF I THINK I'M AHEAD 13% OF THE TIME ON THE RIVER. If BB has JT and CO has Ac, it doesn't make my river call any "easier" or more "obvious".

What if I was 6-tabling, and after I called the fourth bet on the river (the last possible action I could have on this hand), I minimized the table and sat out, because I was UTG, didn't want to play short anymore, and was leaving the table. What if that happened, and I DON'T EVEN KNOW IF I WON??? That would almost be ideal. It would make us completely divorce results-oriented thinking.

All you should care about it "what percent of the time am I ahead?". You should go through the thought process of putting your opponents on hands, probabilities that they play those hands like they did, and figure out what percent of the time you (or me) are ahead.

Results really honestly truly don't matter. Learn that. It's a lesson that way too few people on here have learned.

Josh

Josh W · #43 08-04-2005, 03:37 PM

BB had 98c. I assume CO had Ac.

Josh W · #44 08-04-2005, 03:37 PM

BB had JTo. CO had Ac.

Josh W · #45 08-04-2005, 03:38 PM

BB had QQ. CO had Ac.

Josh W · #46 08-04-2005, 03:38 PM

BB had JTo. CO had QQ.

Josh W · #47 08-04-2005, 03:39 PM

BB had Ac. CO had TT.

TheWorstPlayer · #48 08-04-2005, 03:44 PM

I don't play this high. I don't even play limit, in fact. But this post is so ridiculous that I had to comment. How do you learn the probabilities of people's holdings without seeing showdown? What if, for your entire life, you never saw the results of any hands? How the hell would you be able to play? You can't know how often someone will cap the nut flush here unless you actually see several hands play out this way and see how often they are capping the nut flush. So just humor the people who read the thread and predicted one way or the other on the likelihood of people's holdings and give them your one data point as to whether they were correct in their predictions or not.

andyfox · #49 08-04-2005, 03:47 PM

There's a sense, too, in which results are ALL that matters. After all, we need to pay our bills. If we're putting our opponents on hands, reviewing the probabilities that they'd play those hands in the way they did, figuring out the possibility that we're ahead, and losing, results matter a lot.

Don't misunderstand: I get your point. But if we find ourselves in tough and/or close situations and coming out on the short end, the results are the only thing that will tell us whether our thought process is flawed.

That said, loved your results posts.

Josh W · #50 08-04-2005, 03:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
How do you learn the probabilities of people's holdings without seeing showdown?

[/ QUOTE ]

As I said in the post you referenced,

[ QUOTE ]
You should go through the thought process of putting your opponents on hands, probabilities that they play those hands like they did, and figure out what percent of the time you (or me) are ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]

You use all of the data you have, up to that point in time, then extrapolate to one more data point.

Could you learn poker from scratch without ever seeing a showdown? I don't honestly know, but I doubt it. Fortunately for us, we've all seen showdowns before. Most people on here play 30-60, or can at least assume how people play there. Posters here can figure out how my opponents will (roughly) play based on my image (which I give), the limit, position, etc.

But I agree. If nobody here had ever played poker before, they probably couldn't give good advice. If that were the case, I woulnd't have asked for it. Fortunately, people here have played before. Phew!! What an amazing coincidence.

The results have nothing to do with the thought process.
Josh