NFL Preseason predictions

[Jack of Arcades]

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Why do the Jets get absolutely no respect, they make the playoffs 3/4 years, they're team is arguably better and healthier then last year, and they're not even mentioned as a playoff team?

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The Jets had a really bad secondary last year, one of the worst in the league, but you couldn't tell just by looking at raw stats because a) they played some bad quarterbacks and b) the offense last year had such a huge TOP advantage over everyone else. Now that Abraham is gone, they have nothing back there.

They've got a real good LB corps in coverage, though (tight ends and RBs got nothing on them last year). However, I'd expect Curtis Martin to drop off, he's been getting the rock so much the past few seasons.

[trevorwc]

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Why in the world is Minn getting so much respect in this thread? What did they add this offseason?

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A defense.

Pat Williams, Darren Sharper, Fred Smoot, Sam Cowert, Napolean Harris, and Erasmus James are all new starters.

[Wes ManTooth]

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The Jets had a really bad secondary last year, one of the worst in the league, but you couldn't tell just by looking at raw stats because a) they played some bad quarterbacks and b) the offense last year had such a huge TOP advantage over everyone else. Now that Abraham is gone, they have nothing back there.

They've got a real good LB corps in coverage, though (tight ends and RBs got nothing on them last year). However, I'd expect Curtis Martin to drop off, he's been getting the rock so much the past few seasons.

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Really bad secondary? one of the worst in the league? they were ranked 14th, far from worse in the league and overall the defense was ranked 3rd.

As for the quarterbacks they played they included
Trent Green, Bryan Leftwich, Vick, Drew Brees (twice including playoffs), Aaron Brooks, Tom Brady (twice) Jack Plummer (who threw for 4000+ yards).
Yeah but they are all real bad.

[IndieMatty]

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Why do the Jets get absolutely no respect, they make the playoffs 3/4 years, they're team is arguably better and healthier then last year, and they're not even mentioned as a playoff team?

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The Jets had a really bad secondary last year, one of the worst in the league, but you couldn't tell just by looking at raw stats because a) they played some bad quarterbacks and b) the offense last year had such a huge TOP advantage over everyone else. Now that Abraham is gone, they have nothing back there.

They've got a real good LB corps in coverage, though (tight ends and RBs got nothing on them last year). However, I'd expect Curtis Martin to drop off, he's been getting the rock so much the past few seasons.

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Stick to baseball.

[McGahee]

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Why in the world is Minn getting so much respect in this thread? What did they add this offseason?

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A defense.

Pat Williams, Darren Sharper, Fred Smoot, Sam Cowert, Napolean Harris, and Erasmus James are all new starters.

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Yeah, plus losing Moss makes them a great 'Ewing Theory' candidate; although I'm starting to worry since so many people are picking them to be good.

[CarlSpackler]

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Why do the Jets get absolutely no respect, they make the playoffs 3/4 years, they're team is arguably better and healthier then last year, and they're not even mentioned as a playoff team?

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The Jets are a stone cold lock to win less than 9.5 games -- write it down, take a picture, record it, whatever. The Jets have a rookie kicker. That's going to cost them 1 or 2 games right there. They lost Ferguson, the heart and soul of their defense - no way their run defense is as good as last year. He was more important to their defense than any other player. And their secondary is subpar at best. CMart is not going to lead the league in rushing again, and the loss of Lamont Jordan is huge. Plus, they got Coles back, but he's not the same player he was when we last saw him in NY. Dude's got a chronic toe problem, and that's why he doesn't get the ball downfield, because he can't get open downfield like he used to.

Try taking a look at the Jets schedule. Their non-divisional road games are absolutely brutal. It's very likely they go 1-4 there, and they could realistically lose all 5 of those games. In addition to this, they still play the Patriots twice this year. They don't get Buffalo early so Losman should be settled in by the time they play both games (the second game is the last of the year). And the Fish aren't going to be the easy pushovers they were last year (they'll still suck, but they'll be competitive).

Finally, Herm Edwards is an above average coach, and great motivator, but no one is going to confuse this guy with Walsh, Gibbs, or Belichek when it comes to actual game time strategy. The Jets will finish at or below .500.

[CarlSpackler]

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Even better you have the Redskins finishing in 2nd(4th last year) in the NFC east. This after they lost Smot, Coles and Pierce. Arrington is in a conract dispute after not playing much last year and you have Sean Taylor facing 10-to-20. After the Giants and Cowboys have made a number of roster improvements in the off season and the skins are all capped out its easy the redskins will finish last in the east.

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Washington was literally 6 plays from being 10-6 last year and making the playoffs. And that was with dirty Mark Brunell starting most of the year who could only run one play effectively, that qb rollout sprint. This was Patrick Ramsey's team before Gibbs got there, and it's his again. He has the confidence of his teammates, and will actually have pass protection, something which was obviously absent under Spurrier. Clinton Portis is comfortable in the offense now, and the playcalling will be tweaked to fit his style of running.

The Redskins lost Smoot and Pierce on defense, and their replacements will be downgrades. LA and Phillip Daniels, however, missed most of last season, and their return to the lineup should lessen the impact of the free agent departures. They still have arguably the best defensive coordinator in the league in Greg Williams, and the remaining players should perform better this season as it's the second year in his system.

Overall Washington has coaching continuity for the first time in recent memory. The loss of OT Jansen last season crippled the offense. He's back this year, and they upgraded the interior line with C Rabach. They got rid of the cancer Coles, and the other cancer Gardner will be cut soon too. With the addition of Moss and Patten, they now have one of the fastest receiving corps in the league, and that's what Gibbs' offense needs as it's designed to pound the ball on the ground and use playaction to throw deep for the big play.

[alta_chuttes]

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This was Patrick Ramsey's team before Gibbs got there, and it's his again. He has the confidence of his teammates, and will actually have pass protection, something which was obviously absent under Spurrier. Clinton Portis is comfortable in the offense now, and the playcalling will be tweaked to fit his style of running.

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but he can't run if they put 8 men in the box and you seem to presume ramsey will be successful, which while possible seems optimistic. there's a reason they drafted jason campbell in teh 1st round

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With the addition of Moss and Patten, they now have one of the fastest receiving corps in the league,

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but are either a threat to catch 80 balls? neither is a "great" reciever, fast as they may be. IMO they will be hard pressed to improve on their horrible passing offense from last season.

there d will be good, even losing pierce. the O line will be excellent, and the change in play calling should benefit the impatient portis.

[IndieMatty]

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Why do the Jets get absolutely no respect, they make the playoffs 3/4 years, they're team is arguably better and healthier then last year, and they're not even mentioned as a playoff team?

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Really nice post, I just have some minor disagreements.

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The Jets are a stone cold lock to win less than 9.5 games -- write it down, take a picture, record it, whatever. The Jets have a rookie kicker. That's going to cost them 1 or 2 games right there.


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Their rookie kicker is a HUGE improvement over Doug Brien who routinely could not kick the ball past the 25 yard line on kickoffs, and blew 2 games himself.


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They lost Ferguson, the heart and soul of their defense - no way their run defense is as good as last year. He was more important to their defense than any other player.

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Is heart and soul another term of underrated/nice player? Fergusun was a great run-stopper and a fun guy in the clubhouse; but he is not irreplaceable. Vilma and Coleman will each get better from their superb years. And to address the loss of Lamont Johnson, no team can release the AFC's leading rusher or pay a backup 6M a year. Blaylock is more then serviceable, and the Jets offense will be throwing the ball MUCH more with the improved Heimerdinger as O-Cooridinator.

Their secondary IS subpar, and the loss of Karreem McKenzie is a killer, but there's also HUGE improvements in:

Chad Penningtons health.
Coles > Moss
Jolley> Becht
an allegedly healthy Abraham

Rookies with key contributions: Vilma/Coleman/Strait will have a year of experience under their belt too.

I expect the Jets to go 11-5 at worse.

[The Armchair]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why do the Jets get absolutely no respect, they make the playoffs 3/4 years, they're team is arguably better and healthier then last year, and they're not even mentioned as a playoff team?

[/ QUOTE ]

The Jets had a really bad secondary last year, one of the worst in the league, but you couldn't tell just by looking at raw stats because a) they played some bad quarterbacks and b) the offense last year had such a huge TOP advantage over everyone else. Now that Abraham is gone, they have nothing back there.

They've got a real good LB corps in coverage, though (tight ends and RBs got nothing on them last year). However, I'd expect Curtis Martin to drop off, he's been getting the rock so much the past few seasons.

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Stick to baseball.

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If he's as good in football as he is in baseball, then I'll have to ask him how he'd improve my Mets.

Clearly, I agree with Jack, which is why I didn't have the Jets in the playoffs. Their secondary only appeared good last year because the OC (Hackett) ran a very conservative offense, leading to low scores and high times of possession. Combined, this means that the other team had fewer drives than most others, and when they did, the need to strike quickly was lessened (because the Jets weren't putting up a lot of points).

Having Donnie retire hurts a lot. Losing Ferguson is going to hurt as well, but more importantly, the Jets didn't add anyone on the defensive side of the ball. Minus two starters and nothing of note to show for it? Not good.

On offense, Curtis Martin is going to take a big step back. He had his _best_ season last year, so you'd expect him to return to the median anyway. Add in the fact that he's old and a 1,200 yd, 9 TD season is optimistc. (I like Blaylock as a backup, so the loss of Jordan is not a big deal in my book.)

I like Pennington and I think he'll be healthy. Coles is better than Santana Moss, and anyone is better than Butterfingers Becht. The team will probably show a lot of two-TE sets (Heimberdinger or however it's spelled loves them), and Pennington's freakish accuracy should mean a lot of action for his pass-catchers. But I don't think that'll be enough to overcome the losses suffered on defense, and the added loss of Kareem McKenzie futher tempers my optimism.

I think 9.5 is a fair over-under, and I'd be more likely to take the under there.