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#42
07-13-2005, 04:04 PM
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Re: I puked a little and folded my full house
[ QUOTE ]
a value bet on the river shows +EV when you're going to get called by a worse hand more than 50% of the time. [/ QUOTE ] This is only true if you're last to act. If you are first to act and are considering calling a river bet if you check, then the calculation is more complicated. 
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#43
07-13-2005, 04:14 PM
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Re: I puked a little and folded my full house
[ QUOTE ]
a value bet on the river shows +EV when you're going to get called by a worse hand more than 50% of the time. This is not the case here. -Scott [/ QUOTE ] Um.. why not? Everything we've seen the opponent do so far says this is exactly the case here. There are only 4 cards out there that beat you. He calls down with almost any random two cards. The odds that he calls with a worse hand are >>50%. I don't understand how this is even remotely debatable..
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#44
07-13-2005, 04:39 PM
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Re: I puked a little and folded my full house
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] a value bet on the river shows +EV when you're going to get called by a worse hand more than 50% of the time. This is not the case here. -Scott [/ QUOTE ] Um.. why not? Everything we've seen the opponent do so far says this is exactly the case here. There are only 4 cards out there that beat you. He calls down with almost any random two cards. The odds that he calls with a worse hand are >>50%. I don't understand how this is even remotely debatable.. [/ QUOTE ] Oh come on people! what are you sniffing!?? he's had ONE orbit with this guy! this isn't 1000 hands, it's maybe 10 hands! And just because he called ONE hand down with K-high doesn't mean he's calling every hand down with no pair...it means he's done it once! -Scott
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#45
07-13-2005, 04:48 PM
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Re: I puked a little and folded my full house
[ QUOTE ]
Oh come on people! what are you sniffing!?? he's had ONE orbit with this guy! this isn't 1000 hands, it's maybe 10 hands! And just because he called ONE hand down with K-high doesn't mean he's calling every hand down with no pair...it means he's done it once! -Scott [/ QUOTE ] "What am I sniffing" Hmm? Way to further devalue your opinion (who would've thought it possible?) by adding rudeness. Still, I will try One More Time. He would call you with any ace, and almost certainly any king. There you go - > 50%. He could have 78 89 Ax KQ Q9 K9 plus a whole lot of other random [censored] if he thought you were bluffing. He's a Moron. You don't need 1000000 hands to tell someone's a moron when they cold call and call down with nothing and don't raise the nuts. Value bet.
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#46
07-13-2005, 05:16 PM
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Re: I puked a little and folded my full house
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Oh come on people! what are you sniffing!?? he's had ONE orbit with this guy! this isn't 1000 hands, it's maybe 10 hands! And just because he called ONE hand down with K-high doesn't mean he's calling every hand down with no pair...it means he's done it once! -Scott [/ QUOTE ] "What am I sniffing" Hmm? Way to further devalue your opinion (who would've thought it possible?) by adding rudeness. Still, I will try One More Time. He would call you with any ace, and almost certainly any king. There you go - > 50%. He could have 78 89 Ax KQ Q9 K9 plus a whole lot of other random [censored] if he thought you were bluffing. He's a Moron. You don't need 1000000 hands to tell someone's a moron when they cold call and call down with nothing and don't raise the nuts. Value bet. [/ QUOTE ] The sniffing comment was meant as a joke. get a sense of humor. as for the rest of the crap u spewed, dude where are u getting your facts? I try one more time too. its been ONE orbit. you don't know he's calling down with all the crap you listed. How can you possibly say like it's fact, that: He would call you with any ace, and almost certainly any king. ?? And I said one thousand hands, not a million like you mentioned. And one orbit doesn't make him a moron. -Scott
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#47
07-13-2005, 05:23 PM
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Re: I puked a little and folded my full house
Opponent has called down with K high on an ace high board... I would probably bet an ace for value on this board, let alone a boat (albeit a crappy one).
I call his raise. The not raising the river, with the nuts (was he closing the action?) does not make me fear his raises. It's not like he can have STRONGER than the nuts : ) It makes me think he doesn't know what he's doing, and that means I do not respect his bets. I guess my point is, not raising the river with the nuts does not make me assume his raises mean strong hands. I think they are not related closely enough to make that assumption. None the less, the pot is small, so folding isn't too bad. Every other decision in the hand was as I would make it.
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#48
07-13-2005, 05:44 PM
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Re: I puked a little and folded my full house
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] "What am I sniffing" Hmm? Way to further devalue your opinion (who would've thought it possible?) by adding rudeness. Still, I will try One More Time. He would call you with any ace, and almost certainly any king. There you go - > 50%. He could have 78 89 Ax KQ Q9 K9 plus a whole lot of other random [censored] if he thought you were bluffing. He's a Moron. You don't need 1000000 hands to tell someone's a moron when they cold call and call down with nothing and don't raise the nuts. Value bet. [/ QUOTE ] The sniffing comment was meant as a joke. get a sense of humor. as for the rest of the crap u spewed, dude where are u getting your facts? I try one more time too. its been ONE orbit. you don't know he's calling down with all the crap you listed. How can you possibly say like it's fact, that: He would call you with any ace, and almost certainly any king. ?? And I said one thousand hands, not a million like you mentioned. And one orbit doesn't make him a moron. -Scott [/ QUOTE ] Fine. I didn't appreciate your joke, but I accept that's what it was. I'm afraid you won't like mine either. If you think coldcalling then calling down with kx on an ace high board, AND failing to raise the nuts on the river in a single orbit doesn't make someone a moron... I'm afraid you may be a moron. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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#50
07-13-2005, 06:32 PM
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Re: I puked a little and folded my full house
[ QUOTE ]
This is a really easy bet and a reasonably easy fold to raise. [/ QUOTE ] What are you putting him on that he'd play that way? Given the factors, this is much more easier of a call than a fold. b
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