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#41
07-06-2005, 06:19 PM
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Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
Yes this hand is misrepresentative of the SB's actions in other hands.
The average pot size is 10BB's, but as I stated could pretty easily be forced up to 20 if people weren't afraid of the maniac. I was confident that I could push the pot up to 20BBs anytime I had a hand. You are right that I left a few bets on the table. I should have definitely raised the turn and maybe even the flop. 
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#42
07-06-2005, 06:22 PM
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Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
[ QUOTE ]
Quote: On one hand you say this. On the other hand, the maniac doesn't raise 2 of the 3 postflop streets on the hand you show us. Which should we believe? LMAO.. nice one! I'm sure this was just a rarity. After all, OP has 30 hands of reads that say otherwise!! [/ QUOTE ] Dont be a dick. When someone doesnt fold and shows down things like bottom pair or mid pair every hand for 30 hands it generally means they are going to continue on that way. I agree with you that 30 hands is not enough for reads against most players, but against someone who does the same thing every hand regardless of what they are holding or how much heat they are facing I think you can gather a lot of information from those 30 hands.
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#43
07-06-2005, 06:32 PM
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Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
[ QUOTE ]
Hamlet thank you for your well thought out analysis. That is all I wanted. Perhaps I was being a bit optimistic in how big I could get the pot. I could be mistaken here but it seems that the below doesn't work out mathematically. [ QUOTE ] So if you assume that the pots you lose are going to be the same size as the pots you win, you can pretty much cut your expected pot size in half and call that your net win when you flop a set. [/ QUOTE ] The pots I win are the same size as the pots I lose and the only pots we are concerned about here are the ones where I flop a set. Then I assume I win 25% of the time when I flop a set. Why then are we cutting the pot in half for the net win when I flop a set? Wouldnt it make more sense to cut the pot by 25%? Just for kicks lets try to figure out what the end pot needs to be for the call to work out. -6.5BB for all the times I miss. .75x= 7.5 = 10BBs for the call to be breakeven. [/ QUOTE ] you forgot that you will lose plenty of money if you hit your set and lose anyway. in this case the pot will be biger than on average, making you lose about as much as you win on average when you win. that's why cutting it down 50% is (roughly) correct. and to your "reads": to think you know almost exactly how your opponents play after observing 30 - 50 hands is ... well, everybody knows how it is...
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#46
07-06-2005, 06:39 PM
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Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Quote: On one hand you say this. On the other hand, the maniac doesn't raise 2 of the 3 postflop streets on the hand you show us. Which should we believe? LMAO.. nice one! I'm sure this was just a rarity. After all, OP has 30 hands of reads that say otherwise!! [/ QUOTE ] Dont be a dick. When someone doesnt fold and shows down things like bottom pair or mid pair every hand for 30 hands it generally means they are going to continue on that way. I agree with you that 30 hands is not enough for reads against most players, but against someone who does the same thing every hand regardless of what they are holding or how much heat they are facing I think you can gather a lot of information from those 30 hands. [/ QUOTE ] he raised every pot at every street so far, but not in this pot. i would lay very high odds that it is simply not true. and even if everything you wrote would be perfectly accurate, including that you had a guarantee to be able to push the pot up to 20BB your cold call would be marginally profitable at very best. and that is obviously (for everyone but you, i guess) not the case.
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#47
07-06-2005, 06:42 PM
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Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, What if any point is the cut off for pairs that are acceptable cold calls in this situation. I figure rebump with everything TT and up. So is 99, 88 acceptable and nothing else? Or should we rebump 99, 88 as well and muck everything else. Cold calling does suck though, I tend to think raise or fold. Anyone? [/ QUOTE ] i agree that cold calling sucks. but i think a 3-bet is even more out of line than a call. UTG will probably cap it and even in the very best situation you are only even money against UTG and SB might beat you with his near-random hand.
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#48
07-06-2005, 06:44 PM
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Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Because you can't expect to win a 20 BB pot every time!!! (or even 10 BB for that matter). All you have is a read that SB is a maniac. [/ QUOTE ] Are you misunderstanding what I am saying? The average pot size at this table was 10BB's. From watching the table play almost all of the pots could have been substantially larger if people were willing to get into a raising war with the maniac. [ QUOTE ] There's no telling what he'll do. He may fold behind you! He may fold the flop! Both players may fold at any point..... [/ QUOTE ] At this point I have probably 30 hands on the maniac. He has never folded. UTG I have about 30 hands on as well, he has 10% VPIP but of the hands I had seen him play he took them too far when he was obviously beat, it is unlikely that he will fold after raising UTG. [ QUOTE ] So on one hand you're saying that you may even be a slight favourite if UTG has 66. Then you're saying that you'd fold if you don't flop a set..... ARE YOU STARTING TO SEE SOME OF THE FLAWS WITH YOUR REASONING? [/ QUOTE ] Get your facts straight. I might even be a slight favorite over AK, the lowest of his possible holdings. [/ QUOTE ] everybody tells you that you are wrong. you should focus on understanding why. do you honestly think that there is any chance that you are correct and everyone else is not?
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#49
07-06-2005, 06:49 PM
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Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
[ QUOTE ]
everybody tells you that you are wrong. you should focus on understanding why. do you honestly think that there is any chance that you are correct and everyone else is not? [/ QUOTE ] It has been true all my life. Why would it be different now? And since the first 30 posts or so of this thread offered no explanation or thought to their responses should I just take their word at face value? If I do take their word at face value, how does that help me or anyone reading this thread to improve as a poker player? Explanations help to change minds and rid people(myself included) of incorrect thought lines. I also can dismiss anyone who isn't being constructive in my learning process(Adam)
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#50
07-06-2005, 06:53 PM
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Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
[ QUOTE ]
And since the first 30 posts or so of this thread offered no explanation or thought to their responses should I just take their word at face value? [/ QUOTE ] I should think 30 posts explaining why you were wrong should have been enough. After that, any explanation is a waste of time. [ QUOTE ] If I do take their word at face value, how does that help me or anyone reading this thread to improve as a poker player? Explanations help to change minds and rid people(myself included) of incorrect thought lines. [/ QUOTE ] That's what everyone has been doing. You've just decided you don't want to accept any of it, which you can do all you want at your risk. [ QUOTE ] I also can dismiss anyone who isn't being constructive in my learning process(Adam) [/ QUOTE ] As well as anyone who disagrees with your play at all.
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