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#43
05-17-2005, 11:18 PM
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Re: Do I feel lucky?
The action is bet, call, small raise.
If there was ever action that told you that at least 1 of those people is attached to their hand this is it. If you are looking for justification to push the only reasonable argument I see is the dead money likely to be in the hand if its HU but I don't think its significant enough here to justify taking your flip. 
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#44
05-17-2005, 11:19 PM
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Re: Do I feel lucky?
[ QUOTE ]
what makes you think someone WONT call here? i estimate a 99% chance you get called here with all the donks that play 109s. holla [/ QUOTE ] Of course it depends on their hands. There is no way that AA would fold here. KT should fold here of course. Yes, there was action on this flop but none of is particuarly strong. If people would call with anything here 99% of the time, why on earth is sustainable ROI lower on 109s than 22s? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
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#45
05-17-2005, 11:31 PM
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Re: Do I feel lucky?
[ QUOTE ]
If you are trying to get into coinflips early you are doing serious damage to your ROI. I would pass up a 60/40 early in a SnG and be correct, the key is surviving until the later rounds and outplaying your opponents when the blinds are ginormous. [/ QUOTE ] The only thing that would do serious damage to my ROI would be listening to your advice. How do you plan on "outplaying" your opponents when the blinds are big? Winning more coinflips than they do??
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#46
05-17-2005, 11:47 PM
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Re: Do I feel lucky?
By repeatedly winning them without seeing a flop. Building a big stack isn't needed in a SnG and its best to avoid confrontations early when you are only a slight favorite in order to be around later when you can significantly increase the size of your stack with no confrontations
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#47
05-17-2005, 11:57 PM
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Re: Do I feel lucky?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If you are trying to get into coinflips early you are doing serious damage to your ROI. I would pass up a 60/40 early in a SnG and be correct, the key is surviving until the later rounds and outplaying your opponents when the blinds are ginormous. [/ QUOTE ] The only thing that would do serious damage to my ROI would be listening to your advice. How do you plan on "outplaying" your opponents when the blinds are big? Winning more coinflips than they do?? [/ QUOTE ] you outplay them by having a far superior understanding of probability late game and pushing/stealing more hands.
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#48
05-18-2005, 01:27 AM
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Re: Do I feel lucky?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] If you are trying to get into coinflips early you are doing serious damage to your ROI. I would pass up a 60/40 early in a SnG and be correct, the key is surviving until the later rounds and outplaying your opponents when the blinds are ginormous. [/ QUOTE ] The only thing that would do serious damage to my ROI would be listening to your advice. How do you plan on "outplaying" your opponents when the blinds are big? Winning more coinflips than they do?? [/ QUOTE ] you outplay them by having a far superior understanding of probability late game and pushing/stealing more hands. [/ QUOTE ] The late game is almost all luck. You aren't outplaying people - you are running well. The real skill in SnG's comes when the stacks are deep - same thing with NL cash games. Push and pray isn't great strategy, guys. I'd take a 60/40 edge in a heartbeat because SnGs are short and taking edges like that gives you the best chance to have a deep stack late and get into the money. Your "wait til the end and hope" method won't work as you move up in the SnG limits, folks. -James
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#49
05-18-2005, 02:37 AM
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Re: Do I feel lucky?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] If you are trying to get into coinflips early you are doing serious damage to your ROI. I would pass up a 60/40 early in a SnG and be correct, the key is surviving until the later rounds and outplaying your opponents when the blinds are ginormous. [/ QUOTE ] The only thing that would do serious damage to my ROI would be listening to your advice. How do you plan on "outplaying" your opponents when the blinds are big? Winning more coinflips than they do?? [/ QUOTE ] you outplay them by having a far superior understanding of probability late game and pushing/stealing more hands. [/ QUOTE ] The late game is almost all luck. You aren't outplaying people - you are running well. The real skill in SnG's comes when the stacks are deep - same thing with NL cash games. Push and pray isn't great strategy, guys. I'd take a 60/40 edge in a heartbeat because SnGs are short and taking edges like that gives you the best chance to have a deep stack late and get into the money. Your "wait til the end and hope" method won't work as you move up in the SnG limits, folks. -James [/ QUOTE ] taking every 60/40 is not quite the correct strategy. however, yes, having the capability to play poker preflop and post flop that doesn't involve any kind of "10xbb rule" makes a player better. further, push and pray is well, a pretty damn good strategy. getting there with some extra chips helps out a lot though. it is very true that knowing how to play the short stacked poker is a skill, and in fact, it is a skill that some people are good at and others are not. further, it is true that as you move up the stakes of sngs, it is more and more true that your opponents converge on playing "correctly" with short stacks as well, not just the hero in whatever hand is being played. so yes, it becomes important to learn to play the early and mid game poker. taking every edge because the game is short is, sadly, some of the silliest analysis i've seen in a long while. and i've seen some doozies. citanul
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#50
05-18-2005, 02:59 AM
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Re: Do I feel lucky?
[ QUOTE ]
Your "wait til the end and hope" method won't work as you move up in the SnG limits, folks. [/ QUOTE ] interesting description. you would probably be hard pressed to find someone who plays tighter than me in the first 3 levels. however, i DO have a fairly decent idea of how to play the late game, where you say it is all push and pray, wait and hope, luckbox who is running better strategy. ill tell you, i have ran awful, and i have ran amazing, and yet i always seem to be ahead. must be because of some reason other than waiting and hoping. MAYBE there is some sort of math behind playing a NL game with less than 10x the BB. interesting.. holla
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