88

[gumpzilla]

Of course, I'm also taking a risk by pushing without huge hands, because you could always wake up with JJ+. But you're not advocating folding because of that. It's kind of meaningless to talk about the risks associated with a play without also talking about the rewards if it succeeds.

Yes, I will bust reasonably frequently even if I take my AA against you. But most of the time I won't, and most of the time I'm now in strong position to compete for first, whereas I'm not really if I just bust the shorty here. Limping and playing it against the big stack if you knew you could seems to me like it has to be almost the best way to play AA here (the only better way would be to play the button, but that's less likely) because you can extract maximum value from it that way.

[jcm4ccc]

Great discussion. I've created a new thread with a poll.

[Voltron87]

I call/minraise, willing to sacrifice my 300 or 600 chips for 300 of BBs.

[TheUsher]

[ QUOTE ]
Of course, I'm also taking a risk by pushing without huge hands, because you could always wake up with JJ+. But you're not advocating folding because of that. It's kind of meaningless to talk about the risks associated with a play without also talking about the rewards if it succeeds.

Yes, I will bust reasonably frequently even if I take my AA against you. But most of the time I won't, and most of the time I'm now in strong position to compete for first, whereas I'm not really if I just bust the shorty here. Limping and playing it against the big stack if you knew you could seems to me like it has to be almost the best way to play AA here (the only better way would be to play the button, but that's less likely) because you can extract maximum value from it that way.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, I'd like to thank you guys since you gave me some fresh eyes on how to play AA in this situation as UTG/button, but I'd still prefer to push if I had it. I don't like the added aggravation of busting here trying to be too tricky. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[uphigh_downlow]

Dont you love poker?
[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[UMTerp]

[ QUOTE ]
I call/minraise, willing to sacrifice my 300 or 600 chips for 300 of BBs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is the right idea. You're not limping to "trap", like you would be with AA or KK. You're more or less buying insurance here, ans willing to lose the 300 chips should BB make a bad play (he HAS to call if you limp and SB pushes, he doesn't if you push and SB calls). If for some reason you limped, SB pushed, and BB folded, you're willing to lose those initial 300 chips you invested, because BB just made such a bad error that he increased your EV in the tournament even with 1200 chips in your stack rather than 1500.

[microbet]

I think your range for SB is too wide.

In your previous analysis of call/fold EV you didn't seem to allow for the possibility that short stack win the hand.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]
I think limping is probably a good move here with AA and maybe KK, but big stack cannot put you on those hands because you limp.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with some of this. I think it's probably a good move even with QQ, but much beyond that it's iffy and would have to be looked at more carefully. Also, there are certain players who you can put on huge hands when they limp PF in the late game.

My response isn't supposed to suggest that you should be limping everything here, just that limping can be a good play with the right kinds of hands if you think the big stack is going to come over you with frequency. 88 isn't necessarily one of those hands, but let's take a quick look.

Let's assume big stack is pushing over me with any two. ICM tells me that if big stack pushes, BB folds and you call, you have 33% equity when you win, 0% when you lose. Now say you push, and we'll neglect for now the chances that anybody gets a big hand, and just say the shortstack calls from the SB. You now have 29% equity when you win, 17% when you lose. In both cases, we're assuming you're up against random hands. So how often do you need to beat a random hand before limping to draw a push from a random hand rather than going up against the BB is a good play? It looks like x = 17/21, or 81%, basically. That's quite high; in reality, it's probably a little lower since we're not considering the chance that button or big stack wakes up with a big hand if you push, but it's still very high. AA and KK meet this criterion, and QQ is borderline. But much lower than that and it's no go.

[sofere]

Wow, I think that range of hands is huge. Do you really think BS will call with K2s here? I highly doubt it. He has to put you on a small range of hands if you push in this situation. The only way he calls with K2 is if he's the type of player or thinks "Who is this guy kidding, I'm the BB, I don't care if I'm dominated I'll laugh when I suck out on my 3 outter (at best)"

I'd say the range would be A8s+, ATo+, 66+, KQ, maybe two broadway. And I'd say that is the loose end of it.

[Unarmed]

I didn't read all of this but:

Pushing is the unexploitable play.
Calling is fine if SB is a known fish because:

- He'll call and check down pretty much every hand to help bust out the BB.
- He'll call with a fairly liberal range of hands if you push, the bulk of which either have you dominated or coin flipping.