Everybody poops

[Catt]

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My guess is that a high percentage of my opponents at this limit (30/60) are the types that are pretty much ready to give up on the hand once they've missed their draws, rather than re-analzying the situation in light of the unusual action on the big streets. I definitely think a lot of people are going to make that fold given 5 seconds to decide, when they might realize that they'd have a fairly easy call if they'd instead had 5 minutes to look things over.

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There's a reasonable chance that I would fold my Ax with the table blinking at me for my action -- so my previous statement that I would almost certainly call is probably over-optimistic, induced by the warm-fuzzies of forum thinking rather than in-the-hand-thinking. Which of course makes the thread more valuable since I've seen it once in the calm of forum-think rather than the more pressurized play-think.

What seems pretty interesting about the river play from unknown's perspective is his view of you as a solid player. Whatever the limit (and I have never come close to 30/60), I don't think I as the unknown would accept that a solid player would allow this turn to possibly be checked through if solid player held a PP or a made hand on the flop. If, on the other hand, unknown's view of you was as a donk, he might actually worry about a PP or a Q that was spooked by the flop raise from MP1, and therefore might be more reluctant to call your river bet with A-high.

To bore you with repetition -- very nice thread. Eye-opening, especially since I am struggling with river play decisions.

Edit: To be clear; after your analysis of the hand and my own thinking about the situation, I see that a bet here is way better than a check. You have little to lose with a bet, but much to gain. I originally opined that I'd check and call a bet from the unknown (but not overcall) and would fold to a bet from any others.

[rory]

Great post. I am glad I stumbled on this forum today.

[DMBFan23]

nate,

re: the big street action

any chance you could represent your hand as something AQish or TTish? I think the fact that you might have a made hand < top pair could add to your folding equity vs. the other possible ace high hands

[SippinSoma]

Welcome. I hope you contribute here like you do in HUSH.

[imported_PP123]

I don't know if it has been metioned yet in the thread, but I have some doubts about the flop bet. Is it standard? You only have 3 opponents and one has already checked and you have a gutshot and an overcard, but I don't like it anyway. I think it will be hard to get UTG+2 and MP1 to fold with a bet. They cold-called preflop and a lot of the hands they would cold-call with (especially MP1 who you descibed as a tight) includes a Q or K. On these high-card, coordinated boards I generally don't bet into 3+ opponents OOP. But I guess it's me that's wrong.

[imported_PP123]

Ooops... should have read the whole thread before I posted. Just saw the flop bet has already been discussed. Sorry, but I only have like 19 posts here so be nice at me [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]