A baseball bet

[Jack of Arcades]

120 years of MLB history

Jeter's best year = 1999 (25)
Bernabe's best year = 1998 (29)
Sheffield's best year = 1996 (27)
A-Rod's best year = 2000 (24)
Posada's best year = 2003 (31) - which happens when you don't start playing regularly until you're 27.

[Jack of Arcades]

[ QUOTE ]
i understand baseball and how it is played (no need to get into that) and errors (when talking about pitch counts) is the stat to look at instead of fielding percentage. it is a baseball fact, if a team commits 40 more errors than another team then the pitcher will throw more pitches on the team with more errors. you cant dispute that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Except that if an arizona player gets to a ball and bobbles it, it's an error, while if a yankee player watches it go past him, it's not. The pitcher has thrown the same amount.

I'm saying that measuring defense by errors (or fielding percentage) will get you nothing.

[tdarko]

this is irrelevent, especially with the more productive guys. just because a-rod put up astronomical numbers in 00' has nothing to do with production at an early age since he has put up numbers very close to it every year since.

i will say this, even though you have been kind of a dick in a few posts it's nice to have someone hear to talk baseball and not just people that bash it b/c they don't understand it.
i don't understand hockey too much but i would never bash it b/c its a sport that deserves respect. just my two cents

[bugstud]

[ QUOTE ]
this is irrelevent, especially with the more productive guys. just because a-rod put up astronomical numbers in 00' has nothing to do with production at an early age since he has put up numbers very close to it every year since.

i will say this, even though you have been kind of a dick in a few posts it's nice to have someone hear to talk baseball and not just people that bash it b/c they don't understand it.
i don't understand hockey too much but i would never bash it b/c its a sport that deserves respect. just my two cents

[/ QUOTE ]

Arod may have the a better year this year, BP seems to think it's a good shot anyway. Just the statistically inclined posters on here, especially after that cliutch thread, really don't have fun trotting out the numbers time and time again. I'm not even that good with it, I just do entirely too many fantasy leagues not to be familiar with it.

Essentially, notice how Nate doesn't post much about baseball here...

[ethan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do you even play poker? Are you the kind of person that thinks because you flipped a coin and it was heads last time, there's only a 25% chance of it being heads this time?

[/ QUOTE ]
without a smart ass comment what is this in reference to?

[/ QUOTE ]

If I flip a coin twice, the probabilities of:
2xH: 25%
1xH, 1xT: 50%
2xT: 25%

You flip it once, and it lands heads. Clearly, when you flip it again the probability of it being heads is only 25%, because 2xH only happens 25% of the time.

[tdarko]

[ QUOTE ]
Except that if an arizona player gets to a ball and bobbles it, it's an error, while if a yankee player watches it go past him, it's not. The pitcher has thrown the same amount.



[/ QUOTE ]
when did yankee infielders start watching balls go past them? this really makes zero sense.

brandon webb and i share the same agent (seriously, just trying to point out why i understand what the d-backs staff had to go through is all) and webb has countless stories about how he had to throw 7 outs in an inning and about how instead of throwing 15 pitches in an inning he is out ther for 20 extra minutes and 30 extra pitches. he also mentions the lack of range his defense had, balls dropping that should be caugh etc. the yankees had a decent outfield (sheffield is shaky) matsui and bernie are very good at roaming out there.

the d-backs got to less balls and made more errors than the yankee last year, say what you want about "do you even play poker" and "flipping coins."

[ethan]

[ QUOTE ]
you win

tell him he can buy out of the bet now for $50

[/ QUOTE ]

This sounds about right.

[Jack of Arcades]

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when did yankee infielders start watching balls go past them? this really makes zero sense.

[/ QUOTE ]

Since Derek Jeter started playing shortstop?

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matsui and bernie are very good at roaming out there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bernie's the worst regular defensive cf in the league. Sheffield's one of the worst defensive players in the league, period. Derek Jeter's one of the worst defensive shortstops in the league. A-Rod's one of the best, but he's at third...

The Yankees defense wasn't insanely horrible last year because A-Rod and Cairo put up some very solid years. However, Cairo's gone and replaced by Womack (who was one of those guys Webb was likely complaining about), and everyone, once again, is a year older. Age declines defense a lot more rapidly....

PS: Tell your buddy Webb that his troubles (and I use that term lightly, he was pretty good last year) probably had more to do with his declining K rate and ballooning BB rate than his defense.

[ethan]

[ QUOTE ]
Essentially, notice how Nate doesn't post much about baseball here...

[/ QUOTE ]

Also, be sad he doesn't. It's pretty clear he puts some thought into the game.

[Benholio]

There are a bunch of silly arguements in this thread. Give the yankees the #1 offense and #1 defense in the league, and it still isn't even money for anyone to win that many games.

Clearly it is possible (he won 24 for arizona in 2002), but it is also clear that it is unlikely (of his 16 seasons, only once did he win enough to pay off this bet).

Find out what other players this guy is a fanboi of, and make some more hugely +EV bets off of him while you can.