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#41
03-09-2005, 12:47 AM
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Re: 66 raises limpers from the Button
On average, how many bets do you think you will win when you bet and are called on the river?
I'd say probably about 2. What happens if you are chechraised? You lose 2 bets. Do you really think you will be checkraised here 50% of the time? No way. This is all worst case scenario. The river bet is easy. Also, I don't like the PRF though it's probably not horrendous, just bad. The river check is horrendous IMO. 
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#42
03-09-2005, 12:48 AM
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Re: PFR?!
I ran a simulation with a bunch of typical hands that you might see and 66:
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=816059 pokenum -h as kc - qc 9c - ks 5s - jd 9d - 6c 6s Holdem Hi: 850668 enumerated boards cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV As Kc 195062 22.93 647321 76.10 8285 0.97 0.233 Qc 9c 175054 20.58 668895 78.63 6719 0.79 0.209 Ks 5s 87863 10.33 754520 88.70 8285 0.97 0.107 Jd 9d 182308 21.43 661641 77.78 6719 0.79 0.217 6s 6c 197955 23.27 650135 76.43 2578 0.30 0.233 It looks like you have a pretty considerable edge in a situation like this. Although, I'm familiar with the idea of making a play like this to entice people to play on with marginal hands if you hit your set. It's suggested you raise KTs against a bunch of limpers. To see your edge in a situation like that: pokenum -h ks ts - qc 9c - ac 9h - jd 9d - 6c 6s Holdem Hi: 850668 enumerated boards cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV Ks Ts 214978 25.27 634506 74.59 1184 0.14 0.253 Qc 9c 132837 15.62 711776 83.67 6055 0.71 0.158 Ac 9h 150671 17.71 693942 81.58 6055 0.71 0.179 Jd 9d 160468 18.86 684145 80.42 6055 0.71 0.191 6s 6c 185659 21.83 663825 78.04 1184 0.14 0.219 KTs is almost as much of a favorite here as 66 was in the previous hand, with 66 now in a close second. I would imagine raising preflop with this considerable edge would be +EV. Also, it's easy to fold when you whiff, but collect a bunch more bets if you hit as people will be more willing to play on after the flop. JellyRoll
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#43
03-09-2005, 12:51 AM
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Re: PFR?!
If you are fairly sure the blinds will call as they did, I think the raise is good. If not, I'm not so sure...
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#44
03-09-2005, 01:38 AM
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Re: 66 raises limpers from the Button
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I would bet the river for value. [/ QUOTE ] Two players called 2 cold on 2 streets. This is a bad river bet. (Marginal at best) Krishan [/ QUOTE ] I dont disagree that a flush is possible, but is the frequency you lose two bets vs the flush worth more than the calls you get the times you are best and do value bet? ultimately it depends on some pretty good assumptions and the math gets a bit involved. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, the other thing is that people are going to play differently in a pot this large - calling down with any pair, gutshot and so forth. In a normal size pot, you can usually narrow down cold calling hands to strong draws, slowplays, and possibly weakly-played hands like top pair middling kicker by passive opponents. In huge pots like this, people will cold call much more liberally.
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#45
03-09-2005, 01:47 AM
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Re: PFR?!
[ QUOTE ]
I really like the PF raise. [/ QUOTE ] I do too. In fact, with 7 opponents, it may be more +EV to raise here than to just limp. Hero surely has an equity edge when there are 8 opponents. Considering implied odds, hero is investing 1 extra SB to win multiple additional double-sized bets later in the hand.
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#46
03-09-2005, 08:25 AM
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Re: 66 raises limpers from the Button
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, the other thing is that people are going to play differently in a pot this large - calling down with any pair, gutshot and so forth. In a normal size pot, you can usually narrow down cold calling hands to strong draws, slowplays, and possibly weakly-played hands like top pair middling kicker by passive opponents. In huge pots like this, people will cold call much more liberally. [/ QUOTE ] I conceed. Between the large pot and the chance that someone would be if they had a flush, I think this is a fairly easy value bet on the river as well. Like Nate says, in a smaller pot you can usually read people who call two cold for a good draw, but when the pot is large, people stay in with much weaker hands. Krishan
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#47
03-09-2005, 11:21 AM
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Re: PFR?!
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] 1) Table texture.... a Laggy Table you can expect to make up those bets..easily [/ QUOTE ] True...but at the same time, they're not going to check to you on the flop either. [/ QUOTE ]  Sarge[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
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