Would you push here?

[willie24]

i found the ICM and tried it for the first time, and got the same results as him, for what it's worth.

I am confident that pushing is right, because it works.

I can no longer argue with dali though. if we make the 20-40-40 assumption, and assume that the ICM is correct, folding is better.

i don't know yet if i trust the ICM, since I know nothing about it, but i think it is fair to assume it is correct.

the problem then becomes, how often will UTG call a push, what range of hands did he miniraise with, etc. the problem is now read-dependant, and there's really no sense in arguing it.

20-40-40 and ICM is right=pushing is wrong.

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Push and win
35.76%

Push and lose
0%

Push and UTG folds
28.48%
Fold
23.6%

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sorry to question your greatness, but I don't get where you get these numbers from?
Push and win
35.76%
Are you assuming there is 10,000 total chips? I'm pretty sure this is an 8,000 chip (below $50_5) game.

And i don't understand your calculations for the rest of the numbers as well, except for losing of course?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, first off ICM

When you punch in all chip counts, it gives you a decimal which is the percentage of the prize pool that that stack is worth on its own. There is some dispute over ICM's validity, but as it stands, it is industry standard.

The ICM only factors total chips whether 8k or 10k, or 5 or 5 million, for that matter.

The only confusing # otherwise should have been for the 61.8% figure. I multiplied the ICM value of Push and win by 61.8%, then by 80% since 20% of the time the UTG player is folding.

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
Dali- on an unrelated note- do you ever play at AP?

[/ QUOTE ]
no

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
i found the ICM and tried it for the first time, and got the same results as him, for what it's worth.

I am confident that pushing is right, because it works.

I can no longer argue with dali though. if we make the 20-40-40 assumption, and assume that the ICM is correct, folding is better.

i don't know yet if i trust the ICM, since I know nothing about it, but i think it is fair to assume it is correct.

the problem then becomes, how often will UTG call a push, what range of hands did he miniraise with, etc. the problem is now read-dependant, and there's really no sense in arguing it.

20-40-40 and ICM is right=pushing is wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yet another thing to factor beyond static chip counts is that theoretically, if you make a 20% more than the average player in SNG's, your chips are worth 20% MORE in your stack than in theirs. When you have chips, you have power. When you take skill out of the equation, you lose power.

If you are getting a 15% ROI, you are doing more than 20% better than the "average" player. Therefore in this specific case, it can be said that you must make a 20% overall profit here to make it worth your while. When there is SUCH a strong chance of going to showdown here and risking busting out w/o cashing, folding is all the easier a call.

[Daliman]

Thanks to ImageShack for Free Image Hosting

Sorry, had to be done. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[willie24]

blow me (wink)

what does pwn3d mean anyway?

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
blow me (wink)

what does pwn3d mean anyway?

[/ QUOTE ]

Comp geek for owned.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]

Fold
23.6%

[/ QUOTE ]

I checked your #s and the only one I think is slightly off is this one. ICM gives me 23.79% which would translate into an extra $.19 more reason for the hero to fold. Or in a $215, it's $3.80 (a cup of coffee!) extra added to your figures.

Anyway, yeah, as you mentioned you're not even taking into account the BB calling (small chance but still...). One other thing I noticed is if you push and win a showdown then there isn't any clear shortstack and I don't really see a huge positional edge that would perhaps gain you future $EV to make up for the $EV you're losing by pushing here.

Yugoslav

[willie24]

something else that would be of interest to me:

assume opponent has KJ. what range of hands will he put you on given you push? what does the ICM say for him- calling vs folding?

same thing assuming your opponent has AQ, same thing assuming opponent has A4.

I'm not requesting that anyone actually do this work- but I am curious as to what the results would be.

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
something else that would be of interest to me:

assume opponent has KJ. what range of hands will he put you on given you push? what does the ICM say for him- calling vs folding?

same thing assuming your opponent has AQ, same thing assuming opponent has A4.

I'm not requesting that anyone actually do this work- but I am curious as to what the results would be.

[/ QUOTE ]

KJ and Aq are effectively the same hand vs 99. Neither of which is really germaine to this discussion. This, however, IS Jermaine to this discussion;