Party 3/6 turn decision

[sublime]

Raised behind you, MP1 calls, you call.

and you now are playing catchup, as you are getting around 13-1 to spike a set. so you need about 9 sbs for this to be profitable. with your position on the CO i can see you getting that in the turn and river. cool

Raised behind you, MP1 3-bets, you fold.

so if that happens 25% of the time, that is another SB that you need to account for on the turn and river when you do spike. also take into account that you are only seeing the river if you improve and your hand will not always be good when it does(of course holding the 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] helps)

am i making verbal diareha right now? [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

EDIT: I am probably overestimating how oftn its two back to me. i also dont like putting two bets in here regardless.

[freehat]

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Why did you raise the turn?

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johnny here was my thinking during the hand and for why i raised the turn

after mp1 bet the turn there were 13bb's in the pot, so i raised the turn because

1. i might actually have the best hand

2. i felt i had a pretty good chance to get heads-up, as it seemed the co has ak,aq,aj,kq or aa,kk,qq,jj, 10,10 that is waiting till the turn to raise (but i felt that since there many more combos of the overcards and he would those without spades and possibly the naked j or q.

3. also the chance to fold out pockets pairs 9,9 8,8 7,7 5,5, 4,4, 3,3 that are ahead of me now and might even fold a spade.

4. mp1 has a decent chance of being a maniac given his second limper limp re-raise and does not need anything to bet the turn given no resistance from his flop bet

[Entity]

Ok, here are my assumptions. I think when you hit on the turn and it was raised behind you, you'll make 7BB on the turn and the river. This accounts for trapping UTG+1 sometimes and having 3 potential callers for turn and river action. I think this is a fair estimate.

When everyone just calls on the flop, I think you'll earn an extra 5BB on the average, since you'll get at least 2BB from MP1 and will often get another few BB's thrown in from UTG+1 and CO.

So:

It'll get raised and 3-bet behind you around 20% of the time, and you'll fold then. -.2SB.

It'll get raised and everyone will call about 50% of the time. 4% of that time, you'll win 40SB (not including what you put in). So you lose 2SB 96% of the time (-1.92SB), and win 40SB 4% of the time, (+1.6SB), for a net EV of -.32SB. Since this only happens 50% of the time, that's -.16SB.

I said everyone will call about 30% of the time (which I think is conservative), and you'll lose 1SB 96% of the time and win 33SB 4% of the time, for a net EV of .36SB/time. Since this happens 30% of the time that's .108SB overall.

It looks like if you use those numbers, calling the flop is -EV. However, I think the numbers I used are fairly conservative, and if you were to change the numbers to something like:

Called behind 50% of the time, raised and 3-bet 10%, raised and called 40%, the whole thing is pretty close to neutral EV. I'm also not sure how many bets you earn in each of those instances; I think it's pretty realistic to assume you'll earn 5BB when everyone just calls behind you, but 7BB may not quite be right if it's raised behind you.

Anyway, I guess that changes my answer from "easy call" to marginal call, but I don't think calling the flop is bad at all. It's probably only bad when MP1 and CO are very very aggressive postflop.

Rob

[sublime]

rob-

excellent math, something i struggle at for sure.

Anyway, I guess that changes my answer from "easy call" to marginal call, but I don't think calling the flop is bad at all. It's probably only bad when MP1 and CO are very very aggressive postflop.

thats the thing with me, i am used to playing in overaggressive games, so to me this is a fold. the more passive the game, the more you can get away with it. although like i thought it wasnt as easy as it was being made out to be. turns out like most decisions its fractional.

again, excellent write up.

[Justin A]

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hehe, upon doing some of the math, it is a fairly easy call even if the flop did get raised 80% of the time because of implied odds. if hte flop gets raised, you're paying something like 24-2 on the flop, giving you like 12-1, meaning you'd have to make up 5-6 big bets on the turn and river. assuming our bad guys all have big pairs, that should be fairly easy to do if you can manage a raise on the turn and the river goes bet call call thats 6 bets there. however, dont' forget the times where you may be drawing dead or have sets redrawn on you. so thats why i didn't say 100% of the time its okay. (i'm really just guessing on the 80% actually, it could be much different)

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I don't think this is right. I did some numbers for the flop getting raised by the CO 75% of the time, and I figured you need to be able to make up nine bets on the turn and river. The other problem is that your position in the hand makes it very difficult to get a lot of bets on the final two streets. This also discounts the times that it's two bets back to you and you have to fold. I think this is a fold on the flop.

What are you thoughts on my 75% number? I think this is reasonable given that CO capped preflop into a decent field.

Justin A

[sthief09]

I actually like it other than the river call.

[irisheyes]

Thanks for the breakdown, Rob. I think my concern (on the flop) is what capping hands would you put the CO on where calling MP1's bet is correct? Either he needs to raise to protect his hand (fold out UTG+1 and maybe MP1 or Hero) if he is weak, or he's way ahead and should value bet after Hero's call here.

I think a 50% estimate that he raises is very conservative, and this hand is an exception case.

[freehat]

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I agree - this isn't a turn decision. You should fold the flop when you don't hit your set. Even if everyone else is playing overcards, all you've got is a lousy pair of 2s. There is practically no chance you're going to drag this pot by the time the river comes without hitting your crappy 2-outer.

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if everyone has overcards then folding is a catastrophe

[freehat]

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[ QUOTE ]
hehe, upon doing some of the math, it is a fairly easy call even if the flop did get raised 80% of the time because of implied odds. if hte flop gets raised, you're paying something like 24-2 on the flop, giving you like 12-1, meaning you'd have to make up 5-6 big bets on the turn and river. assuming our bad guys all have big pairs, that should be fairly easy to do if you can manage a raise on the turn and the river goes bet call call thats 6 bets there. however, dont' forget the times where you may be drawing dead or have sets redrawn on you. so thats why i didn't say 100% of the time its okay. (i'm really just guessing on the 80% actually, it could be much different)

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I don't think this is right. I did some numbers for the flop getting raised by the CO 75% of the time, and I figured you need to be able to make up nine bets on the turn and river. The other problem is that your position in the hand makes it very difficult to get a lot of bets on the final two streets. This also discounts the times that it's two bets back to you and you have to fold. I think this is a fold on the flop.

What are you thoughts on my 75% number? I think this is reasonable given that CO capped preflop into a decent field.

Justin A

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Why is my position bad on the turn if it gets raised by the CO and then checked to him on the turn? Then CO bets, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, Hero Raises, thereby trapping the field for a likely two bets.

[freehat]

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I actually like it other than the river call.

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the river call, was i guess for the slim hope that utg+1 has the naked A, that was overplayed on the turn