99 3-bet PF

[Shillx]

Random thoughts:

1) The problem with raising the turn in most cases like this is that the SB will only bet the turn when he has us in bad shape. So he will fire at the flop with all kinds of hands, but when he is UI on the turn with AK and 3 people calling, he will check. If he bets again, he has a bigger overpair and we are just giving away money by raising.

2) However in this case, waiting for the turn might not be a bad idea. Let's say that the SB checks the turn (when it bricks). If we had to act right behind him, we would be in bad shape because everyone can take a look at the river for one bet. But with 2 people in the middle, we still might be able to get a raise in when the action goes check-bet-call-hero raises or check-check-bet-hero raises and thus put the screws to the SB and his overcards.

3) So in this case I really don't mind waiting until the turn. If we were to act directly behind him, we would need to raise the flop (for value) because we would only be raising him with 2 outs should he bet the turn with a bigger overpair. Interesting hand.

Brad

[KaiShin]

You've made a lot of posts lately regarding relative postflop position. Its taking me a long time to digest all this but its great to introduce these advanced concepts to this forum, I think. Awesome stuff.

[Zoelef]

(curious) What happens if you're check-raised on the turn?

I would check through on the river, even if it's 'weak-tight'.

Edit: Wow, this hand is older than my poker experience and I didn't realize it. ...um, hot damn!

[btspider]

[ QUOTE ]
(curious) What happens if you're check-raised on the turn?

I would check through on the river, even if it's 'weak-tight'.

Edit: Wow, this hand is older than my poker experience and I didn't realize it. ...um, hot damn!

[/ QUOTE ]

fold to a check-raise.. I don't think Hero should have bet the turn though.

[car ramrod]

Fold to the cap, or to the first raise?
I think I would 3 bet here with 99's, unless I have a read that he is tight.
So assuming you would also 3 bet with 99, do you fold for one more bet when he caps.
I agree I raise this flop, great flop for your hand.

[btspider]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold to the cap, or to the first raise?
I think I would 3 bet here with 99's, unless I have a read that he is tight.
So assuming you would also 3 bet with 99, do you fold for one more bet when he caps.
I agree I raise this flop, great flop for your hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

if you 3-bet and he caps.. folding would be unbelievably terrible, even if he shows you AA... do you see why?

[HajiShirazu]

I think preflop is fine. I would always 3-bet but calling isn't the biggest crime in the world here, you could just play for a set, but I do think trying to get the blinds out is a better choice in the long run.
What I don't understand here is why people are talking about raising postflop.
On the flop, raising is just horrible. It accomplishes nothing at all. First, a raise has no value, because probably 70-90% of the time you have 2 outs and no fold equity. People just don't cap with only AK in the passive 1/2 game. Second, even if there was a decent chance you were ahead, raising does little to nothing to protect your hand unless SB 3 bets, in which case you are beat anyway and just wasted money. But, you're getting odds to draw to the set so you do have to see the turn.
In the situation that the turn was a blank instead of an ace, I would fold if SB bet and was called by MP1, and probably fold in the other SB betting scenarios as well. I just don't think the effective odds on a calldown are good enough even though the pot is big. If SB checked and MP1/CO bet I would raise and if checked to me I would bet.
The ace is an interesting card. SB turns his JJ-KK over by checking, and then MP1 doesn't bet, so he has a pair also or perhaps a KQ type hand, or maybe AJ. I can actually see the point in betting here, I would bet, because the pot is big, a "thinking" but WT player would put you on the big ace and MAYBE make a big laydown.
On the river, just give up, somebody has an ace or a bigger pair that they have decided to call down with. That's just wasting a bet, you'll never get two folds there.

[car ramrod]

I agree, you then have odds to hit your set, right?
So I guess your argument was to fold to the first raise then. How close is it to a 3 bet, assuming unkown raiser?
I would think you would be 3 betting here pf, maybe I'm wrong.