Typical preflop situation

[Schneids]

You raise from CO-1 with KQs, CO 3-bets (who now only has 1SB left on the table), and BB who is a TAG caps, back to you -- what is your play? Another 2+2er and I disagreed on this and I'd like to hear your opinions.
- Mike

P.S. James it's CO-1. CO+1 == button.

[etizzle]

I fold, the BB must almost certainly has you dominated.

[worm33]

[ QUOTE ]
You raise from CO-1 with KQs, CO 3-bets (who now only has 1SB left on the table), and BB who is a TAG caps, back to you -- what is your play? Another 2+2er and I disagreed on this and I'd like to hear your opinions.
- Mike

P.S. James it's CO-1. CO+1 == button.

[/ QUOTE ]

Im not really seeing how this situation is any different than usual. As long as the BB doesnt drop his capping requirements to 88 99 or AJ because of the all in player, its still an easy fold.

[William Jockusch]

Call and flop a six [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[sthief09]

seems like a great situation to me. you are sure you're behind an overpair or two, which is great. there's no way this thread should've gotten so many responses

[SoBeDude]

I'm really suprised at how much activity this question has received.

It helps underscore the point as to why so few people can show a longterm positive expectation.

Now granted I know my game isn't perfect. I still make too many mistakes. But folding is such a fundamental mistake, anyone who thinks there is a fold here really really needs to go back to hitting the books and focusing on the fundamentals.

-Scott

[roy_miami]

How often does this situation come up? Once every 20000 hands, maybe? If calling has a positive expectation of 1 BB per hand, what are you costing yourself by folding really? 0.003 BB/hour? Is this significant enough to make anyone who folds here a long term loser? Is it even worth arguing? I don't know, maybe 0.003 BB/hour is alot, but for now I'm gonna keep folding.

Now I'm not arguing that folding is the right play, because it obviously isn't for most, but for some people it may be. I actually had this almost excact situation come up yesterday, I have notes on the capper as having low preflop raise standards I called 2 cold with my 88 (the call was based entirely on this thread), 3 to the flop of T25 the capper bet, the other dude folded on the flop, i knew this player could push AK to the river so I called down to see his KK. Obviously I don't have the discipline to get away from this hand post flop and I'm sure I'm not alone. I would think it would be especiallly hard to drop an overpair after the flop. So, at this point in my career its probably a negative play for me to see flops in this situation, when I get good enough to fold on the flop here maybe I'll start calling, but for now I'll have to live with the 10 cents (give or take a few pennys) an hour this fold is costing me.

[joey_qz]

Assumptions:

1. You can only win by flopping a set. If you don't flop a set you fold. You do not play straight/flush draws. This is done to simplify the analysis.

2. When you win, you win 23 SB. A fairly generous estimate.

3. When you flop a set and lose, you lose 9 SB. Fairly conservative.

4. When you flop a set, you win 75% of the time. So, 25% of the time you will run into an overset on either the flop, turn, or river, or AKs or similar hand will run into a straight or flush. This seems fairly conservative since against only 1 overpair, he will hit an overset about 16% of the time with any of the other 4 board cards when you hit a set.

Analysis:

Won with set - Lost with set - No set =

(1/8.5 * 3/4 * 23) - (1/8.5 * 1/4 * 9) - (7.5/8.5 * 2) =

2.029 - 1.765 - .2647 =

0 SB

Conclusion:

Given my assumptions, you will break exactly even with this call. Straight/flush possibilities will swing this to a call, less friendly estimates on pot size for winning and losing can easily swing this to a fold. This tells me that, at the very least, some of you should have given this problem more consideration than just dusting it off as a stupid question. It certainly made me think.

-joey

[stoxtrader]

[ QUOTE ]
When you flop a set, you win 75% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you should work on your assumptions.

[joey_qz]

Can you provide a more accurate estimate of how often you flop a set and win? And explain why? As I stated in that fourth assumption, one of your opponents will hit a set 16% of the time you hit a set, if he holds a pair. And in this problem you have two opponents of which at least one is very likely to hold an overpair.

I may be wrong, but just telling me I'm wrong

a.) Doesn't shed any light on the situation, and
b.) doesn't convince me I'm wrong

I'm more than open to constructive criticism of my assumptions as my only goal is to get to the *right* answer.

-joey