Live 2-4: AA on Drawless Board and Top Card Pairs on the Turn

[joker122]

nm

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, this is an easy situation to deal with so long as you know your opponent and arent married to your hand. So long as the opponent is not tricky or lag I fold, especially if he is passive or weakish (as you describe).

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a short, simple (in a good way) answer to respond to. Some people are saying it's an easy decision as long as your opponent isn't an over-aggressive or tricky player. But, the size of the pot often means you have to call on the turn even if you're 100% certain you're behind.

If he has a Queen, you've got two outs and need 22.1:1 to call. If he has a flopped set and turned a full-house, you've got four outs and need 10.5:1 to call. Since he could have either when you're behind, splitting the difference and calling it a 3 out hand which needs 14.3:1 to call is reasonable.

So, you need 14.3:1 to call when you know you are behind. The pot is offering 12.5:1. But, there's a small chance you're actually ahead of somebody making a play at the pot. So, that should make your leans towards calling.

But, if you call the turn, you are most likely going to call the river unimproved. So, that could make you lean towards folding.

You know what. I don't think it's easy to find the right answer.

[Victor]

"You know what. I don't think it's easy to find the right answer. "

I realized this after reading a very similar post in the Small Stakes section. JDERICKSON Post

Most of the posters advised to call down here. Some even advised to fold in your post, but call down Ericson's post even though the pot is much smaller. In fact, that post immediately made me think of this one and after some thought I realized that these are the hardest situations in low limit poker.

Ultimately, the only way to safely navigate these situations is refine your reads on players.

But if there is almost any chance your opp is bluffing you lose a ton of money by folding. Or, even if you know your opp has you beat and you fold, another player may pick up on your "ability" and come at you in these situations.

"But, if you call the turn, you are most likely going to call the river unimproved. So, that could make you lean towards folding."


Round and round we go.

[BottlesOf]

If the "correct" answer is as close as it appears, doesn't it mean that what we do here doesn't really matter?

[brick]

[ QUOTE ]
If the "correct" answer is as close as it appears, doesn't it mean that what we do here doesn't really matter?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's interesting because, as the decision gets tougher, it actually matters less.

The decision to fold, call or raise when you have the nuts on the river is the easiest decision, but if you make the wrong choice it would cost a ton.

Now that I know this decision is so tough I'm not going to worry about it anymore.

I feel so free.

[arkady]

Ay, you are right - this is a case of when the EV is so neutral regardless of what you do, that cracking your skull trying to calculate the best scenario is not worth the time or effort. Good point bottles.

[shadow29]

1) This stems from an RGP post, so there is no good read on this player.


2) The pot is large, thus you should concentrate on winning the pot. Because there is both a chance that your opponent is bluffing and thus your hand could be good AND the fact that this is 2/4 and your opponent could thing even middle pair is good I think turns it into calling. Getting 12.5:1, I think that you call the turn and check/call the river unimproved.

3) Also- I posted the original thread. What I found so funny was not the situation, as it is obvious that this is a very tough decision. If you look at the thread some of the comments are just too good to pass up. "Math isn't everything." etc. Check it out, I think it's humorous, but my sense of humor is a bit strange.

[Gordon Scott]

[ QUOTE ]
Is this an easy situation to deal with?


[/ QUOTE ]
Not easy, but I call it down, cuss and pray he has me on AK which I likely play the same way up to the point where our hero got raised on the turn.

I probably bet out the turn with AK a lot more than I should. I’m probably 50/50 in this spot. How bad is that? I see it happen a lot.

Anyway this is way out left field but I’m just a beginner;

We have the benefit of knowing what the Hero holds. Looking at the hand through the “very loose and average, though tending towards passive, opponent’s” eyes, our hero (being a tight aggressive player) may just be pushing AK. With that board, I put our opponent on trying to push out over cards with A7 or 99 or just betting to get win right there. He may have the goods but why would he raise the turn with that board and that may players left to act if he had a Q or a boat? Anyway he knows the late position players didn’t raise to protect Qx on the flop so why not take a stab with a chance that he has the best hand. If he gets 3 bet by one of them or the Hero, he has an easy fold with A7 or whatever. If he’s called down he will likely get a shown down for the same price.

Just a rookie’s take,

Great post,

Thanks

[MrHorace]

[ QUOTE ]
I did fold aces once tonight when the board was Q J 10 9.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hmmm. I'm not a poker expert, yet, but why would you do that. Doesn't a K give you the nut straight as well? Do let me know if I missed something, please.

[Michael Davis]

Yes, this is an easy fold.

-Michael