ATo preflop - I have no idea

[tiltaholic]

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop only. No reads, <10 hands on the table. This can not be right.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (9 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, SB folds, UTG calls, Hero folds.

Turn: (5.50 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, MP1 checks.

River: (5.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, MP1 folds.

Final Pot: 6.50 BB

[/ QUOTE ]

i think this would be a slightly loose flop call, but not a horrendous mistake of a call. i think at most we have 3-4 outs. but the problem is we have no reads and no sense of what are opponents will do, either pre or postflop. this makes it hard to assess which if any of our outs might be tainted.

in general, i'd say that unless you can recognize situations favorable for ATo, have confidence in playing it, or have a read on the opposition, it is good to muck it preflop from EP/MP.

how do you give a 2-gap bdsd draw 1 out? i pointed out that this is &gt;90 to 1. and how do you give an A 3 outs?

LOTS of room for argument there.

[HouseCalls]

ok first you are right on the 2 gap; I counted it as 1 [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] so reduce that to .5 outs. But even if we call the aces 2 outs that still leaves 4 outs for break even odds of 10.5:1 and its ok to take one off. I am NOT saying that this would be the end of the world if you fold here but my point was that (at least for me) some of these flops that look like no brainer folds when I first look at them are actually marginal calls when you figure out all the outs...
Of course now that I have figured that out I will probably call a little too aften for a while [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
Also i did not take into account btspiders ideas about implied odds (which I usually don't and is yet another leak in my game) but it may be that implied odds make this a fold whereas just out counting seems to make it a close call.

[tiltaholic]

[ QUOTE ]
how do you give a 2-gap bdsd draw 1 out? i pointed out that this is &gt;90 to 1. and how do you give an A 3 outs?

LOTS of room for argument there.

[/ QUOTE ]

your primary error seems to be using the percentage of filling a hand preflop. perhaps one is 100:1 to fill a 2 gap straight draw starting from preflop, but once the flop comes, we have AT on a J82 board.

from here, it is fairly simple to calculate that the nut straight will arrive by the river 1.5% of the time (8/47 x 4/46).

this works out to a little more than half an out for one street (or 66:1, i think), so I think 0.5 outs would be more accurate.

of course, i'm not good at math so this could be wrong.

yeah, that appears about right. so, .5, 1.5 for the flush draw, and 1.5-2 (assuming AA would win, 3. i seem to recall from SSHE a discussion on the outs to an overcard getting 1.5 on the flop; and here in this instance you can see why: a raise by villian on the preflop would likely indicate an AJ-AKs, given the subsequent check when royal cards failed to drop, so the A probably will not help you at all), so between 3 and 4 outs seems reasonable. if it's 4 outs, the call is still marginal, and depends a lot on how much coffee you'd swallowed that morning.

[mvoss]

[ QUOTE ]
how do you give a 2-gap bdsd draw 1 out? i pointed out that this is &gt;90 to 1. and how do you give an A 3 outs?

LOTS of room for argument there.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that 5.5 outs is too much, but hero actually has both a 2 gap BDSD and a 1 gap BDSD (JT8). I'll give us 4 outs here. 1 for the BDSD's 1.5 for the BDFD and 1.5 for the Ace. I don't think folding is bad but to me a call seems fine as well.

you know, there's actually two two gap gutshots there. i wonder if that would count for 2x(argument for one 2gap gutshot)?

[tiltaholic]

[ QUOTE ]
you know, there's actually two two gap gutshots there. i wonder if that would count for 2x(argument for one 2gap gutshot)?

[/ QUOTE ]

i specifically didn't include straights in which we use one and only one of our hole cards.

the chance of having any straight by the river is 3.7% but i think we need to discount one card straights here because we're unlikely to win the whole pot...so i still think 0.5 outs is ok.

[ QUOTE ]
we have AT on a J82 board.

from here, it is fairly simple to calculate that the nut straight will arrive by the river 1.5% of the time (8/47 x 4/46).

[/ QUOTE ]

shouldnt that be:
(4/47 * 8/46) + (8/47 * 4/46)

[tiltaholic]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
we have AT on a J82 board.

from here, it is fairly simple to calculate that the nut straight will arrive by the river 1.5% of the time (8/47 x 4/46).

[/ QUOTE ]

shouldnt that be:
(4/47 * 8/46) + (8/47 * 4/46)

[/ QUOTE ]

no. because we dont have the nut straight unless we have AKQJT.