Pop quiz

[mack848]

I am still struggling a little with this.

I have added specific values to you example.

The pot is 7.1 BB when back to you on the turn. You know you have 5 outs to win.

EV of calling the turn = (0.11*8.1)+(0.89*-1)= +0.01BB

If you decide that his is bluffing 11% of the time -
EV of calling the river = (0.11*9.1)+(0.89*-1)= +0.11BB

So, the both the turn and river calls are +EV.

But when you decide to call down it will cost 2BB to win 8.1BB, so 4.05:1 pot odds.

11% of the the time you will improve to the winning hand.
89% you won't improve.

But you will win 11% of the time unimproved, so you actually win the hand 21% of the time (11% when you improve + 11% of the 89% of the occasions that you don't improve).

Winning 21% of the time means that you need nearly 5:1 odds to call down - and you're only getting 4:1 - so it's -EV.

Where is my mistake here?

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
Winning 21% of the time means that you need nearly 5:1 odds to call down - and you're only getting 4:1 - so it's -EV.

Where is my mistake here?

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't check all your math, but what I put in bold is wrong.

You need to be getting slightly less than 4:1 odds if you're going to win 21 percent of the time. (79:21 odds would be break-even for your 21-percent figure.)

[mack848]

Wow, yeah - can't believe I missed that. Thanks.

[flair1239]

[ QUOTE ]
Here's a simple test of your poker logic. This kind of thing happens all the time. Do you know the answer?


You have bottom pair and you are facing a bet on the turn in a heads up pot. You think you are most likely behind, but of course you aren't sure.

You decide it'll probably take 2 pair to win. The pot is just big enough that, with your implied odds, you can barely call if you plan to fold unimproved. You are getting the proper odds to draw, but just barely.

You are just getting ready to call when you realize that you have some doubt about whether or not you are losing. You think there's an outside chance your opponent is bluffing. If you call the turn, you decide that you're going to be forced to call a river bet unimproved.

What's your action?

[/ QUOTE ]

Have not read the whole thread. But, don't you guys figure a likelyhood of a bluff into your decision to begin with?

Kind of a "I am ahead x% of the time, and will draw out x% of the time, the pot is offering me X, implied odds are Y, so I ___________."

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
Have not read the whole thread. But, don't you guys figure a likelyhood of a bluff into your decision to begin with?


[/ QUOTE ]
You should do that, otherwise you might fold in profitabel situations. But this is "a simple test of your poker logic" and the information given in the post is enough to answer the question.

[ QUOTE ]
Kind of a "I am ahead x% of the time, and will draw out x% of the time, the pot is offering me X, implied odds are Y, so I ___________."

[/ QUOTE ]
Important to understand is that if we're not ahead enough on the turn to be able to call the river it doesn't matter. Being ahead ~9% on the turn in this hand doesn't help us, unless we think villain will give up on the bluff on the river. How often he does that is another thing to evaluate. This way it can become profitable to call the turn without having the odds to draw and still be planning to fold the river UI.

[SeaEagle]

[ QUOTE ]
Have not read the whole thread. But, don't you guys figure a likelyhood of a bluff into your decision to begin with?


[/ QUOTE ]
Well, yes and no. The most important aspect of this example is that you know you are going to call a river bet, in which case you should figure in the % of the time you're ahead of villian. However, if you're going to fold UI to a river bet, then you have to ignore any bluff equity.

For me, personally, it was a huge epiphany when I realized that I couldn't always play one street at a time. In the example Eric presents, you would need about 6.5 outs (getting 6-1) to make the turn call if you would fold UI on the river. But you only need about 5 outs if you are calling down (this assumes that your river call is +EV when you're UI). So if you give yourself, say, between 5 and 6 outs, you can't make the correct turn decision unless you know what you're going to do on the river as well.

[flair1239]

This seems like a trick question.

What you have basically said is that we have a live draw on the turn that we are getting odds to draw to... so we should call the turn.

Incidently we have also concluded that on the river there is a good enough chance we are ahead where the pot size will dictate that we also call there as well.

So we are basically intending to make two calls that are +EV in the longrun.

I think so many people chose fold, because you intentionally obfuscated the issues at hand.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
For me, personally, it was a huge epiphany when I realized that I couldn't always play one street at a time. In the example Eric presents, you would need about 6.5 outs (getting 6-1) to make the turn call if you would fold UI on the river. But you only need about 5 outs if you are calling down (this assumes that your river call is +EV when you're UI). So if you give yourself, say, between 5 and 6 outs, you can't make the correct turn decision unless you know what you're going to do on the river as well.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't know from where you get these numbers from, cause we're not given any any numbers from OP. I would guess the pot is about 7BB (if he assumes he'll win 1BB extra on average when he hit) on the turn when it gets to you, but it's not important. And in this example it's not the +EV call on the river that makes the turn call possible...

I would say this is an easy fold because u think ur behind, and in low limit holden the best thing if ur not sure u have the best hand or drawing for the nuts is to fold and wait for a better hand!

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
I would say this is an easy fold because u think ur behind, and in low limit holden the best thing if ur not sure u have the best hand or drawing for the nuts is to fold and wait for a better hand!

[/ QUOTE ]Read SSHE, spend some time at the micros and start play 0.5/1 (if you have the bankroll).