Maybe Silly but Good Hypothetical Question - Page 5

Shoe · #41 07-11-2005, 11:03 PM

When I first saw the title of this post, I was going to chime in and say all of your questions are silly. But then I read it and have a little bit to add.

I would still play all of my hands that are stronger than QJs in the same way. When those hands miss but the QJs does hit, I will be able to bluff my opponents out of the hand every time (assuming that they really do believe i have QJs and they will fold when they "know" they are beat).

Every hand that I get that is worse than QJs, I will play as if I have QJs. I'll still fold if it has been raised and re-raised to me pre-flop. Actually I would open my requirements a little as I have 2 chances to hit the flop instead of 1, but I'm still not going to go overboard with my trash hands.

You can now win by bluffing whenever a QJ of diamonds would make a good hand. However, you can no longer win by bluffing when the QJs does not hit.

You can now win huge pots when you get a good hand (that is your real hand, not QJs), as your opponents should pay you off dearly (if they truely believe you have QJs they would cap it every flop when they have you beat).

Anytime they bet, and you can't beat QJs, you will usually assume they have you beat, as they aren't going to be bluffing most of the time. This one would depend some on the player.

It will take some more thinking for my guess on how his winrate will increase, but I'm thinking it will increase anywhere from 3 - 10 BB per hour. It could be a lot because he has the potential to really get paid off. If there is unlimitied raising heads up it could go even higher if people are willing to commit their entire stack on the belief you have QJs.

Edit: Sorry if any of this has already been posted, I didn't have time to read any of the responses yet.

catlover · #42 07-12-2005, 12:11 AM

David --

Maybe this is too optimistic. My thinking is that my suited QJ will make a flush 5% of the time, and when it does I may win anywhere from 10 to 20 big bets -- or maybe more if a lot of people are still in when my flush gets there. I know, the rest of the time it's terrible, and I may lose money calling with my flush draws that then miss. Maybe I am overvaluing the flush possibility.

I'll say this much. If there is no cap on raises heads up, I should definitely play QJ suited, not diamonds [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img].

Shoe · #43 07-12-2005, 12:14 AM

Also, I'd fold QJ diamonds whenever it is dealt to me.

LethalRose · #44 07-12-2005, 01:46 AM

I would think infinite. If you know what your opponent has put you on you cannot make a mistake on any street.

SheetWise · #45 07-12-2005, 02:44 AM

I may be the outsider here -- but I thought the question was pretty straight forward, and can't believe how over-analyzed it is in this thread.

SheetWise

btw- KIP

DougOzzzz · #46 07-12-2005, 03:32 AM

[ QUOTE ]
David --

Maybe this is too optimistic. My thinking is that my suited QJ will make a flush 5% of the time, and when it does I may win anywhere from 10 to 20 big bets -- or maybe more if a lot of people are still in when my flush gets there. I know, the rest of the time it's terrible, and I may lose money calling with my flush draws that then miss. Maybe I am overvaluing the flush possibility.

I'll say this much. If there is no cap on raises heads up, I should definitely play QJ suited, not diamonds [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img].

[/ QUOTE ]

Best case scenario for QJs (not diamonds) is you flop a flush, and get paid off 4 bets on each street. Total win would be about 12 BB's. Note it's unlikely it's going to be a "family" pot, because your opp's are going to have to be aware of each other too.

Now, other scenarios:

Much more likely is you flop a flush draw. Assuming your opponent has QdJd beat, he'll bet on the flop. On the 20% chance your flush hits on the turn, you might win 10BB. On the 15% chance your flush misses on the turn and hits on the river, you might win 6BB, but you are also charged an extra BB to see the river.

Also, you could end up losing to a better hand, even if you make the flush.

In other words:
1) 10-20BB is too high an estimate for your average win when you hit your flush.
2) MOST of your flushes are going to cost you at least 1 BB and sometimes 2+ BB to hit. So you're not really getting huge implied odds.

You will win a few small pots when QJ hits in other ways, of course. But I think it's clear it's -EV to play QJ of any suit in this situation.

kasey2004 · #47 07-12-2005, 09:36 AM

This question doesnt seem to require deep thinking. Your profts would go up since your big hands would be guarenteed to get paid off & u can get people to fold when Queens or Jacks flop. This post seems like a no brainer to me. Just dont play JQ of Diamonds [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img], since it would be of no real value.

[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Kasey [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

DougOzzzz · #48 07-12-2005, 12:55 PM

Yes of course. But the question is not "what hands do you play?", but "what is your expected win rate?"

Most people are severely underestimating the amount of money you should win.

erby · #49 07-12-2005, 01:18 PM

I admittedly haven't read all the replies, so someone might have brought this up. But, if they put you on 100% QdJd, and the flop comes 7-4-T, and you really have JJ, how can you tell if you're opponent is playing KK or 22. He's going to figure he has you beat with either hand, and if he has KK he has you beat in reality. So I guess I'm saying that maybe knowing that he has put you 100% on QJ might not be as profitable, since you have now lost the ability to discern what hand he has when he starts capping, and you would not know if you are way ahead or way behind. I think I would actually rather not have the hypnotist here, because raises mean nothing from your opponents, except that they can beat Q high...

Just a thought...
Erby [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

erby · #50 07-12-2005, 02:05 PM

Thinking about it more, I'm going to make the most radical statement ever. Being the hypnotized person is +EV. Before anyone starts flaming away, let me explain. The hypnotized person has no qualms with laying down anything that can't beat QdJd, so he won't lose much at all when those come on the board. He'll fold immediately. If a diamond draw comes out, he'll bet trying to make you pay for the draw (does he have a pair? does he know you don't? does he have AdKd-in which case once the flush hits you still can't take down the pot? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] You just DON'T KNOW!!!!) When the board doesn't help the QdJd, he might actually have an even bigger advantage. He will bet whether he has the other person beat or not, as long as he can beat QdJd. What has effectively happened is that this has turned him into a TAG...and on the other hand, since you have lost all ability to read hands, and know that you could be up against anything from K high to a straight flush, you can't feel comfortable putting in too many bets with anything much less than the nuts...AWWW CRAP!!!! He's reduced you to a loose passive call station (remember that you all think that you should be playing tons of hands now). What's more, you're convinced that you have the upperhand because you've been given information. However, the information given (that the guy can beat QdJd) is worth less than the information you can get from bets playing it straight and thinking about raises, calls, etc... so this is worse accoridng to FTP...

Summing up, i'd rather be a TAG playing on false pretenses... than a Loose passive call station looking to flop close to the nuts with every hand (i've seen what happens to those guys at the Taj...and it's not pretty)...
FLAME AWAY!!!
Erby [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]