Simple Common Tournament Situation

[jakethebake]

Brooks Brothers

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What suit? This is important.

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[Robb]

I was going to respond with "Yes sir, I know". I'm so used to posters talking about a specific hand that I didn't take into account the fact David is asking for the best play on average--not a specific hand - which is exactly what you mentioned.

So my answers still apply if the table's stack sizes are skewed one way or another. Using the stack sizes of an average table at that stage of the tourney.....dunno. My inclination is to push. Since I posted my first response I've been thinking about whether I would rather have a good but not great hand with bad position to push with..or wait for position and any hand dealt to me in the cutoff/Button which will be on average, well....average.

When I consider the fact that if I wait til the blinds pass that I may not get a chance to steal the blinds (because of a raise in front of me) -I would still push UTG with QJs.

Regards

[binions]

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Middle of a major no limit holdem tournament. About half the field is gone and your original $2000 is down to $1100. You are the best player at your table but there are no live ones there. Nine handed. 100-200 blinds. You are dealt QJ suited under the gun.

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Blinds = $300
No live ones = you'll get called 20% of the time. Gap concept.

80% chance to win $300 = fold equity of $240

The 20% you get called, you'll lose your stack 75% of the time, and double up 25%.

The amount you lose on average when you get called does not offset the fold equity.

The EV of the play evens out at a call rate of 39%, assuming a 75-25 won-loss ratio when you got called.

Raise all in.

[Easy E]

Raise to $500 or $600, go all in if reraised. I need to gamble for some chips if they aren't that weak

If I fold preflop, I'm looking at crappy hands and blinds that could pot-commit me.

If they call and I fold the flop, then I'll have to push in one of the blinds probably with any semi-mediocre hand

[fnurt]

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I say that, because we know that if we get called we are beat. What is worse is the fact that we will only get called by 1 person who surely has us in bad shape.


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A lot of the folders seem to be saying something like this. I don't get it though. First of all, with a short stack you could get called by a lot of things. Pairs you are favored over. JTs from a big stack looking to bust you. With 5 big blinds it's not like only AK, AA-JJ are going to call.

More importantly, if you get called, they still deal all five cards as far as I know. If you get all-in as a 40-60 or even 30-70 underdog, it's not that much lost EV compared to folding and taking random hands in the blinds.

Any time someone postulates a preflop scenario, there is a tendency to assume the other players will call with exactly the range of hands that beats you. If you have KQ, suddenly you're up against the mythical player who calls only with "any ace or any pair." If you have QJs, all of a sudden people will call with AJ and KQ right and left, but not TT! HOW DO THEY KNOW??

To me, you have a reasonable hand, you are about to lose a big chunk of your folding equity after you take the blinds, so this feels like a push to me. I'm not convinced I'm right, but I think it's going to take a little more analysis to justify a fold than most people are offering.

[KC50]

I only read a few replies but no one has mentioned that you have T$1100 which is 5.5 BB. IMO whether you are the best or the worst player at the table it's push or fold time. Being utg and the next 2 hands will eat up almost 30% of your stack and at a 9 handed table you will have to post again soon.

I think with QJs allin is the play here.

KC

[AngryCola]

I actually do agree with some of what you said.
Still, if you do get called at a tight table while holding QJ it usually turns out to be the worst of the 2 hands. Its very unlikely someone at a tight table will call a fairly big raise with the hands you have dominated. That's the only way you could get called and have the best hand before the flop, and it just isn't likely.

No matter how any of us look at this it still seems to be very marginal either way.

I do not claim to be an expert. I don't even claim to be right. All I can do is offer my opinions. I'm glad you did so as well. The poster on the end of the thread titled "answer" got me thinking too. That's the important thing: that we all think and learn.

Seems to me that the big question is: What is your goal in this situation?. If it is indeed correct to have the blinds as your goal (as suggested in the "answer" thread) then the move that would be correct is all in.

I just don't think the risk vs. reward of that situation is very good. I could very well be wrong about that, however. Nonetheless, if you move all-in here your goal has to be to steal the blinds.

Side note: I never have any problem eating crow when it has been shown that I'm wrong. I'll always admit it. To do otherwise has always seemed silly to me. [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Binions:

I've only read David's post and your post. So perhaps this comment of mine has already been addressed.

You're assuming that if you fold your expectation is zero. Now in a side game that would be the case because you have the option to quit. But in a tournament that's not the case since you must keep playing.

For instance, suppose you adjusted the rules of the tournament so that if you fold here you must take the big blind but then you are allowed to quit. So by folding, your expectation is no longer zero, it now becomes negative.

Best wishes,
Mason

[gergery]

Push all-in. It’s EV-, but folding and waiting is more EV-.

Whether you push now or later, you are only likely to be called by a top 15-20% hand. QJs is in the top 15% of hands you could have to go against that range of hands. Which means that its quite possible you will not have cards this good for another orbit.

Pushing now with 5xBB means you still have some fold equity, as the BB is getting 14:9 odds or 1.5 to 1. Wait til you have 4xbb and now the person who has to call in the BB is getting 11:6 odds or almost 2:1 AND places your range of hands even wider, making a call more likely. 2:1 odds is the tipping point at which a) 2 low undercards are correct to call two big overcards, and b) an overcard/undercard is correct to call a pair (ie. A2 should call 99). Thus making calls MUCH more likely when odds hit 2:1

So the 5x vs. 4xbb is actually an important cut-off point where vs. good players you will be MUCH more likely to have to showdown to win if you fold this hand. Thus your fold equity declines dramatically by folding here.

Calling would only be good if you were highly likely to get 4-5 callers as well – the chances that happens must be very low here.

One wacky option I’ll throw out there is this: Raise 2.5xbb now, with the expectation that all your chips are going in no matter what on this hand. This gives you two ways to win – they could all fold now to your bet. Or, if called, you push on the flop and they could fold if they miss.

--Greg

[Dominic]

If I'm going to play this hand, I'm going to push...if I make a reasonable raise, we're talking more than half my stack - so that's why I push.

But why would I want to risk it all on QJ?

Hmmmm....if I don't play this hand and I don't play the blinds, I'm down to 800 on the button and any hand I play after that I WILL be pushing, obviously.

So...if my goal is to win the tournament, maybe I should push now with my QJ UTG , pick up the blinds if no one calls, and still have 1100 on the button once the blinds go by...then at least when I do pick up a hand and push, I'll still have some folding equity.

Interesting situation...but you're right....pretty common!

edit: the more I think about it, the more I'm pushing.

But really, it'll all depend on what I feel my image is at that particular table: you say I'm the best player, but do the other players think that to? If so: push. If they think I'm a loose, aggressive player, maybe I'll have to fold.

But all things being equal: push.