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#42
10-31-2004, 04:36 PM
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Re: Tosh?
[ QUOTE ]
Betting this flop is a good play because the BB is likely to fold, so that means for it to be profitable I need 2 players to fold one if 4 times. But, it's actually more like 1 in 5 times because I have outs. [/ QUOTE ] Your thinking that BB is going to fold is purely based on him being a 'decent' player? I am not buying that for a start, and as BB you can't rule out a 7. You have some possible outs of course, but you also have the likelihood of reverse implied odds, but no great implied odds to counter balance. Why would you not want a free card here? You already know that the reason you make money on Party is because you pay you off so much, why all of a sudden are they going to be bluffed? 
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#43
10-31-2004, 04:40 PM
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Re: Party 3/6: Summoning my inner calling station....
[ QUOTE ]
who said anything about protecting a hand? everyone has agreed that this bet is a semi-bluff with emphasis on the bluff part [/ QUOTE ] who mentioned semi-bluff with emphasis on the bluff part. you really think the 3 others will fold this flop? and your outs are just a J or T, not much to get excited about,no backdoors or anything
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#44
10-31-2004, 04:43 PM
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Re: Tosh?
[ QUOTE ]
You already know that the reason you make money on Party is because you pay you off so much, why all of a sudden are they going to be bluffed? [/ QUOTE ] C'mon Tosh...without reference to this specific hand, you must realize that many players at 3/6 on Party actually will fold the flop when they have nothing.
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#45
10-31-2004, 04:47 PM
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Re: Party 3/6: Summoning my inner calling station....
[ QUOTE ]
you really think the 3 others will fold this flop? [/ QUOTE ] As difficult as it is for some people here to believe, I thought I had a 25% chance of taking down this flop right here...and I further thought that I at least had a very good chance of getting HU (and with position, or course) with someone who might also have a unmade hand.
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#46
10-31-2004, 04:49 PM
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Re: Tosh?
[ QUOTE ]
C'mon Tosh...without reference to this specific hand, you must realize that many players at 3/6 on Party actually will fold the flop when they have nothing. [/ QUOTE ] What hands are they folding then? Examples.
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#47
10-31-2004, 04:53 PM
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Re: Party 3/6: Summoning my inner calling station....
[ QUOTE ]
As difficult as it is for some people here to believe, I thought I had a 25% chance of taking down this flop right here [/ QUOTE ] Bluffing this type of flop is a well known play now (in the 15/30 games at least - they will often re-bluff the bluffer but also call an awful lot with almost any two cards since they know the bluffer often has no pair). I think you have a much lower than 25% chance of winning this pot immediately. I agree with what GOT said though, change the texture of the flop and I bet this.
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#48
10-31-2004, 04:54 PM
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Re: Tosh?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] C'mon Tosh...without reference to this specific hand, you must realize that many players at 3/6 on Party actually will fold the flop when they have nothing. [/ QUOTE ] What hands are they folding then? Examples. [/ QUOTE ] For the limpers, they might fold any two overcards: QJ, KT, AX. BB could have anything, and I wouldn't put him on a 7 or 2, when it's checked to me. For the record, I don't know if I'd bet or not. I'm Undecided (Go Nader).
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#50
10-31-2004, 05:27 PM
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Re: Party 3/6: Summoning my inner calling station....
[ QUOTE ]
I think the reason not to bet this flop and go after the pot is the size, only 4.33 SB or whatever. [/ QUOTE ] huh? that would be a good reason to try a bluff,youre saying you would try a bluff if it was 10sbs? no way is anyone folding then
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