how much can you make and misc thoughts

[Ulysses]

I don't know anything about you or your circle of friends and how good any of you are, so this isn't directed at you, but I think it's important for people to know that there are numerous online players who made over $200k last year that I am certain will be bust within the next year or two. Many if not most of the players I've come to know online, especially the younger ones, vastly underestimate the degree of luck in this game and how long the long term really is when it comes to making money at the game.

[mike l.]

"Many if not most of the players I've come to know online, especially the younger ones, vastly underestimate the degree of luck in this game and how long the long term really is when it comes to making money at the game."

im not sure if that's true. if theyre beating something like 15-30 between 5-8 tables for that much over a year of consistent (30+ hours a week) online playing that's like 3-5 years or more of my live play. so it's like theyve already reached the long term, at least what my long term will be.

[Ulysses]

You'd be very surprised at the level of difference in results looking at multiple 100k hand samples from individual players. That's hands-wise equivalent to 2000+ hrs of live play.

[snakehead]

she doesn't make anywhere near $1 million. she only plays that high because her boyfriend bankrolled her.

[mike l.]

great so what that means is i could just be running good the past 5 years live games.

[snakehead]

[ QUOTE ]
There are plenty of players who make over 200k a year online. Hell, I know a bunch personally, and that's just in my little circle of friends.


[/ QUOTE ]


sorry, I don't buy it. you're telling me there are lots of internet players out there driving porches and living in penthouses. it just doesn't happen.

[snakehead]

believe it or not, there are many players who play 8 hours a day and more. but I think it isn't so much quantity hours as quality hours that produces profit in poker. while my snide remark about vegas players was a little tounge-in-cheek, it is true that there is s big difference in the games, and it takes different skills to win in LA than in LV.

vegas games are usually several regulars (locals) who are feeding on one or two helpless tourists. los angeles games are full of gamblers who have lots of money, but the also have lots of experience. they will go off for big bucks, but it takes a little more skill to beat them than the vegas tourists.

since there are more and bigger donators in ca, the games are much more profitable.

as far as the 'name pros' who didn't make as much as my estimates, that just supports my contention that people don't make nearly as much as theory suggests.

[snakehead]

[ QUOTE ]
That'd be about $240/hour, which seems reasonable

[/ QUOTE ]

sheeat. even if her win rate was that high (it isn't), there aren't enough games that are good enough to turn it into $1 million a year. also remember, she is going to have bad runs during the year just like everyone else.

[GuyOnTilt]

Hey Snakehead,

I don't have much to say that hasn't already been said here, but just wanted to say that your posts and threads are virutally always really insightful and helpful to me.

GoT

[Michael Davis]

They're not going to go bust, they're just going to regress to the mean and become breakeven players, especially as the games continue to get worse. If they beat the game for $200K in any year they are not losing money players and probably never will be.

-Michael