Whats the move here? - Page 5

deathpotato · #41 09-13-2005, 03:49 PM

Adanthar, I'm really curious as to why you say this. Do you think the fact that shortie is in the BB next hand improves your equity by >2.1% (the equity ICM tells us we lose by folding JJ)? I can see folding 99 for this reason, as ICM says this only makes a difference of .6%, but TT, at 1.4%, seems a lot tougher.

It seems pretty tough to analyze the next hand, where shortstack is in the BB. The fact that big stack didn't steal from you on the previous hand means he may very well not be seeking to preserve the bubble to steal from the 2nd stack. I think we can expect him to raise about 20% of hands here. I'm guessing on this one, but I think we can expect 2nd stack to raise about 25% of the time button folds, as he has a definite interest in getting ITM as soon as possible. When both of them fold, you obviously push with any two. We'll ignore the times that you or 2nd stack call, because that will happen very, very rarely.

Big stack pushes
.2*.635 = .127 Big stack wins
.2*.365 = .073 Big stack loses

Big stack folds, 2nd stack pushes
.8*.25*.624 = .1248 2nd stack wins
.8*.25*.376 = .0752 2nd stack loses

Big stack and 2nd stack fold, hero pushes
.8*.75*.5 = .3 Hero wins
.8*.75*.5 = .3 Hero loses

So .127 of the time the stacks will look like this:
5230 $EV = .427
2355 $EV = .3455
415 (HERO) $EV = .2275

.073 of the time they will look like this:
4830 $EV = .4103
2355 $EV = .3283
425 $EV = .1292
415 (HERO) $EV = .1322

.1248 of the time they will look like this:
4980 $EV = .4202
2605 $EV = .3532
415 (HERO) $EV = .2266

.0752 of the time they will look like this:
4980 $EV = .4155
2180 $EV = .3211
425 $EV = .1332
415 (HERO) $EV = .1302

.3 of the time they will look like this:
4980 $EV = .4184
2355 $EV = .3395
665 (HERO) $EV = .2421

and .3 of the time they will look like this:
4980 $EV = .4171
2355 $EV = .3342
350 $EV = .1307
315 (HERO) $EV = .118

So, assuming raising ranges of 20% and 25% for the biggest and 2nd biggest stacks, respectively (I think these are reasonable ranges?), hero's EV in this hand is:

.127*.2275+.073*.1322+.1248*.2266+.0752*.1302+.3*. 2421+.3*.118 = ~0.1846

Calling with 99 against any two in the hand in question gives us equity of .187, and as such I can see folding it if you think the numbers in the following hand could be even more favourable than the ones I picked. But calling with TT gives us equity of .195, and I think it would be difficult to stretch the numbers in the next hand enough to give us that much equity.

curtains · #42 09-13-2005, 06:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
No worries, I found that as I learned more and more and improved at the SNG game things that once seemed counterintuitive became much more easy. Eventually the decisions that seem tough are in fact the ones that are within a few tenths of a % of each other when you check them out later on.

The logic behind this play is really quite sound when you think about it. 99 crushes the vast majority of hands that AQ is only slightly ahead of, and it is that difference that makes 99 callable while AQ is not.

And hey, I won my HU SNG [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

high pairs are very strong against any 2 pushes. I think 88 is slightly better than AK.....Another extremely funny thing is that AJs is better than AKo against any 2!

MegaBet · #43 09-13-2005, 08:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
No worries, I found that as I learned more and more and improved at the SNG game things that once seemed counterintuitive became much more easy. Eventually the decisions that seem tough are in fact the ones that are within a few tenths of a % of each other when you check them out later on.

The logic behind this play is really quite sound when you think about it. 99 crushes the vast majority of hands that AQ is only slightly ahead of, and it is that difference that makes 99 callable while AQ is not.

And hey, I won my HU SNG [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

high pairs are very strong against any 2 pushes. I think 88 is slightly better than AK.....Another extremely funny thing is that AJs is better than AKo against any 2!

[/ QUOTE ]

OMG, really? Interesting...

#44 09-13-2005, 09:57 PM

That is interesting guess I never thought about AJ being stronger against any two due to the fact that it's a better drawing hand.

deathpotato · #45 09-13-2005, 11:28 PM

Any thoughts on my last post? Still think QQ is a fold? I'd like to get some discussion going about 99-JJ because it sounds like there's a fair bit of difference in opinion regarding them.

lastchance · #46 09-13-2005, 11:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Any thoughts on my last post? Still think QQ is a fold? I'd like to get some discussion going about 99-JJ because it sounds like there's a fair bit of difference in opinion regarding them.

[/ QUOTE ]
It all depends on what Villain pushes. If Villain's 2+2, I instacall 99+. If Villain's limps every other hand, and hasn't raised all day, I have to put him on a 50% range or so, and call QQ+.