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#41
10-17-2005, 07:30 PM
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Re: Possibly dumb question about preflop equity and potsize manipulati
[ QUOTE ]
I only raise AA for chop value. I call all suited connectors and pocket pairs. you're behind the vast majority of the time with every other combination of cards, and your equity won't go up until the flop. Also, suited connectors do not have enough value because they are <font color="red">highly susceptible to redraws by Jason. </font> Consider this: Jason holds A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and limps UTG. Its called to you on the button where you raise your 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Jason re-raises, and three people call the two more cold. You call and seven head to the flop. The flop is A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Jason bets (attempting a bet/threebet) and it's called to you where you raise. Jason re-raises and one person calls two cold between you. You call behind. the turn is the J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] You've made your flush, but here's the dilemma - at this point Jason has a ton of outs on you. He's got 8 hearts, 1 ace, three jacks, three fives, and three twos. Yup. 18 outs to beat your flush in a huge pot. how much value did that hand have pf again? [/ QUOTE ] This scenario does nothing to determine whether or not raising 98h preflop had value. Rob 
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#42
10-17-2005, 07:42 PM
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Re: Possibly dumb question about preflop equity and potsize manipulati
[ QUOTE ]
I only raise AA for chop value. I call all suited connectors and pocket pairs. you're behind the vast majority of the time with every other combination of cards, and your equity won't go up until the flop. Also, suited connectors do not have enough value because they are <font color="red">highly susceptible to redraws by Jason. </font> Consider this: Jason holds A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and limps UTG. Its called to you on the button where you raise your 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Jason re-raises, and three people call the two more cold. You call and seven head to the flop. The flop is A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Jason bets (attempting a bet/threebet) and it's called to you where you raise. Jason re-raises and one person calls two cold between you. You call behind. the turn is the J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] You've made your flush, but here's the dilemma - at this point Jason has a ton of outs on you. He's got 8 hearts, 1 ace, three jacks, three fives, and three twos. Yup. 18 outs to beat your flush in a huge pot. how much value did that hand have pf again? [/ QUOTE ] Is it a bad scenario? You have the edge here on the turn.
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#43
10-17-2005, 07:54 PM
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Re: Possibly dumb question about preflop equity and potsize manipulation.
it seems to me this is a straightforward example of a good scenario to not raise. if you are VERY sure that UTG is limping a big hand, it is a hand that either has few outs(big pp) or AK. regardless, you are getting a premium on pot odds being able to get in so cheaply against a hand with such a pf equity advantage. the biggest change in value will be on the flop, and as that is completely speculative until it happens, you can maintain the best odds, and consequently the most profitable scenario by taking the nice implied odds a suited connector or pp has against a hand like AA with very few outs after the flop. no raise for me.
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