Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba

[Ulysses]

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MP3 calls....

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(MP3) rarely calls anything on any street. He's certainly the raise or fold type. He has about 14k chips, and does not seem to be afraid to put them in for any reason.

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What do you make of MP3's call pre-flop? Also, against a guy who will be very suspicious of your move (and who knows that you can easily put him on making a move) and is not afraid to mix it up, I don't like your move.

If it weren't for your comments re: MP3, I would like the move. It just sounds that this is the kind of guy who will gamble with his tourney life getting a nice overlay and maybe having the best hand, even with something pretty marginal.

I predict he called w/ 88 and you hit a 9.

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I like the move, takes a lot of guts and I think is a winning strategy.
The only real drawback would be if you got called, won the hand (which is not as unlikely as some seem to assume) and then had to stay at the table for awhile. You'd have to adjust your game to your radically changed image and that would not be easy (well it's the kind of thing that isn't easy for me anyway).

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That would be the perfect image. They would have no clue what to think of me. I am tight, but I risk all my chips with J9s?! I play one hand every 30 minutes, but it's a bluff? What do I do when I get a real hand?! They would have no clue how to play against me.

I certianly don't make plays like this very often, so if they start getting suspicious of my big all-ins, that's great for me.

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I may not be as experienced as you are Justin, but I do love the impression that you can put on people when your playing history at the table speaks for itsself (1 hand every 30 minutes or so). This tight image can confuse players greatly, and the confusion will generally create fear in them, I can get the same kind of respect when I push all in at the casinos as well, even if I do have a semi-marginal hand people will be too confused to call or feel way behind if they do.

[SossMan]

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Everyone at the table knew what happened with the SB. While he was still semi-confused, Dave actually flipped the purple chip over so the big 500 written on it was showing. I would be very surprised if anyone at the table was not aware of what happened.

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hmmm, knowing that the SB mistake was that obvious, I like it less. It's probably still a good move, though. If the MP3 is a 3 level thinker, then he knows that you know that he knows the SB made a mistake and he knows that you would be suspicious of his wake up raise and therefore put you on exactly the type of hand you had. So, depending on how much gamble he had in him (with a small pair) and how confident he is in his reads, your FE might go down somewhat.

Overall, though, great recognition of a profitable situation.

[Wake up CALL]

The results aren't necessary. It is evident you would't post this hand if you lost so you won. Yawn, next hand please.

[psyduck]

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The results aren't necessary. It is evident you would't post this hand if you lost so you won. Yawn, next hand please.

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Sorry, but you're an idiot.

[locutus2002]

I don't like the play, I don't think its EV+ and consequently there is no reason for hero to risk his chips at this early point, or spend his tight image.

Here is my simplified reasoning based on the premise that SB and MP1 can see that MP3 and CO are putting moves on.

I think its too incredible for MP3 or CO to have a big hand and to flat call the first time and then make substantial raises: especially the push by CO. I don't think it takes a rocket scientist to see this, and I think both SB and MP1 will call with TT++, AQ++. (~60 hands)

MP3 has a much wider range: 55++, A8s++, suited broadways (~200 hands)


Here is my at the table back of the envelope math (no calculator)

SB calls ~60 hands out of ~1200 or 5%
MP1 calls ~60 hands out of 200 hands or about 30%
MP3 calls 70% of his range since he will be getting ~2:1 on his money.

Ignore multiple callers.

SB and MP1 become 1 player with a combined calling rate of 35%, MP2 calls 70%, Hero wins the pot ~20% (.7 X .3) of the time winning 20% X T13,500 (uncontested) EV= ~2700 chips.

Hero is 30% against SB and MP1's range; 35% X T24,000 = ~8000
EV = 35% X T8,000 = T2,600.

Hero is 40% against MP3 range; 45% X T24,000 = ~11,000
EV = 45% X T11,000 = ~T5,000

total EV = T2700 +T2600 + T5000 = ~T10,000 or EV neutral.

[Punker]

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type. He has about 14k chips, and does not seem to be afraid to put them in for any reason. He is definately a thinking player, possibly even a very good player

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I'd be worried here that he could deduce the same thing I had deduced, and figure out that I am not strong. Its not terrible, but undoubtedly risky.

[SossMan]

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I don't like the play, I don't think its EV+ and consequently there is no reason for hero to risk his chips at this early point, or spend his tight image.

Here is my simplified reasoning based on the premise that SB and MP1 can see that MP3 and CO are putting moves on.

I think its too incredible for MP3 or CO to have a big hand and to flat call the first time and then make substantial raises: especially the push by CO. I don't think it takes a rocket scientist to see this, and I think both SB and MP1 will call with TT++, AQ++. (~60 hands)

MP3 has a much wider range: 55++, A8s++, suited broadways (~200 hands)


Here is my at the table back of the envelope math (no calculator)

SB calls ~60 hands out of ~1200 or 5%
MP1 calls ~60 hands out of 200 hands or about 30%
MP3 calls 70% of his range since he will be getting ~2:1 on his money.

Ignore multiple callers.

SB and MP1 become 1 player with a combined calling rate of 35%, MP2 calls 70%, Hero wins the pot ~20% (.7 X .3) of the time winning 20% X T13,500 (uncontested) EV= ~2700 chips.

Hero is 30% against SB and MP1's range; 35% X T24,000 = ~8000
EV = 35% X T8,000 = T2,600.

Hero is 40% against MP3 range; 45% X T24,000 = ~11,000
EV = 45% X T11,000 = ~T5,000

total EV = T2700 +T2600 + T5000 = ~T10,000 or EV neutral.

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you really think that people are calling the 4th raise (no matter what whacky action got them there, with hands like AQ?) Don't you read all the 'should i fold KK preflop' threads over in MTT?

[Vincent Lepore]

You forgot to figure in the liklihood that a better situation will arise in which to risk all of your chips when you determined calling was better than folding.

Vince

[Ulysses]

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The results aren't necessary. It is evident you would't post this hand if you lost so you won. Yawn, next hand please.

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I could see ZJ posting this after getting called by something like 55 and losing.