A WSOP Main Event Hand

[MLG]

I still hadnt mastered way ahead/way behind when i was 4.

[Double Eagle]

OK I give, pushing = not such a good idea.

I seem to have perfected the jam-into-the-nuts play recently so i thought this would be a good spot for it....

[MLG]

to be fair, the mistake is usually gonna be bigger than 1/5 as usually he will be drawing to a flush draw + over or pair, or gutshot or some combination of them. The point still stands though.

[locutus2002]

Villain can only have you crushed 5% of the time, and have the nuts < 1% of the time. I don't think he'd check it if he was ahead on this board that could improve for anyone. I think hero is ahead and should assert it. After hero checks behind his flop bet looks like a continuation bet and he is vulnerable to getting blown off the hand.

Is a push correct? Hero pushes 14K to win 9K and has to get villain to fold at worst 64% of the time to make it EV+. With this flop alot more than 64% of the hand will be drawing hands that villain will be getting the incorrect odds to continue with. couple this with some FE, and some K-rags that call and hero is way ahead. Pushing is EV+.

Is checking behind more EV++? This is a judgement call and very situational. Overall, I would put hero all in on the river if I was villain after hero failed to show me that he was committed to the hand.

[ansky451]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain can only have you crushed 5% of the time, and have the nuts < 1% of the time. I don't think he'd check it if he was ahead on this board that could improve for anyone. I think hero is ahead and should assert it. After hero checks behind his flop bet looks like a continuation bet and he is vulnerable to getting blown off the hand.

Is a push correct? Hero pushes 14K to win 9K and has to get villain to fold at worst 64% of the time to make it EV+. With this flop alot more than 64% of the hand will be drawing hands that villain will be getting the incorrect odds to continue with. couple this with some FE, and some K-rags that call and hero is way ahead. Pushing is EV+.

Is checking behind more EV++? This is a judgement call and very situational. Overall, I would put hero all in on the river if I was villain after hero failed to show me that he was committed to the hand.

[/ QUOTE ] '


Where are these numbers from? the nuts less than 1%?

[Iconoclastic]

Now that the momentum of this thread has gone in the way of the Keep the Pot Small school away from the Push All Your Chips In And Pray You're Ahead school, why not go all the way and just check the Flop.

If Villain bets the Turn and River call him barring read.

Think, would most hands that you want to call such as a lower pair or lower kicker actually CALL on the Flop? No, why would they? There is NO value bet, only a bluff.

Plus not betting the Flop keeps the Pot small enough so that you're not milked too much while paying off a flush.

This way, if he has a Heart, most of the time he won't improve anyway and you'll win. He may even catch an undercard and "value" bet into you later or bluff you thinking your checks=weak and give you more chips. The chips you lose from being outdrawn are outweighed by the chips he "value" bets into you or bluffs off to you and the times you don't get check-raised out the hand.

But if I already bet the Flop, I would have rather Pushed the Turn. Once you make a mistake, make it all the way.

And finally, I'm not results oriented but had the Hero taken my line it would have ended up

Flop: check, check
Turn: either check, check or bet, call (pot ~6000)
River: bet, call (lose a ~12,000 or ~6,000 pot)

rather than lose a ~30,000 pot