KK on like worst river ever in the history of rivers - Page 5

Klepton · #41 09-21-2005, 06:54 PM

bet/fold

if you can't, c/c

adamstewart · #42 09-21-2005, 07:10 PM

One other strong point that I forgot to mention (and it doesn't sound like you've considered) is the following:

Checking will allow us to see a free showdown against some better hands (like straight - either with an Ace or Nine, or a low flush - like 2-5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]).

THIS IS A HUGE CONSIDERATION. These hands are going to call anyway if we bet, but they just may check it through if we check, thus often saving us a big bet.

(By the sounds of your reply to my post, it sounds like you are overestimating the times hands like a 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or a straight will bet this river, imo).

Adam

RunDownHouse · #43 09-21-2005, 07:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
It lets villain play perfectly against us. He bets his better hands, and checks his worse ones. Maybe he'll check a 9 through.

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This is a huge point for me, and a concept I really try to consider on each and every applicable river.

Adam, I think that any straight bets this river if checked to.

kidcolin · #44 09-21-2005, 07:23 PM

On a slightly different board in a slightly different situation, I might agree with this:

[ QUOTE ]
Checking will allow us to see a free showdown against some better hands (like straight - either with an Ace or Nine, or a low flush - like 2-5 ).

[/ QUOTE ]

Remember this guy called Did's UTG raise on the button AND Did's says while he's not awesome, he doesn't suck. I took that to mean his hand range doesn't have a lot of low clubs. Maybe some low-mid pocket pairs, but they've come a long way after a flop most would fold on. I would weigh broadway-type hands more heavily in his hand range.

And I don't think an A checks behind that often, but maybe you've got a point there.

meanjean · #45 09-21-2005, 07:24 PM

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1) What hand is he possibly hoping you'll fold? Almost everything imaginable is up there. Is he really going to bluff > 15% of the time?

Surf

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no I don't think he'll bluff 15% of the time....I think our hero is good perhaps 20% of the time or more (on a tight schedule or I would figure a more accurate percentage) and should be sure to see the showdown for only one more bet. 15 cards beat you the rest don't....I want to see if the villian has one of those 15 cards for the 7BB's

B Dids · #46 09-21-2005, 07:55 PM

Don't get too specific with the hand range. I don't have PT at work, so I don't know the exact numbers, and nothing he'd done play wise had left me with much of an impression. My guess would be he's not calling the turn w/o at least a jack if I had to (obv prior to what I learned at showdown).

Surfbullet · #47 09-21-2005, 08:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Surfbullet:

It lets villain play perfectly against us. He bets his better hands, and checks his worse ones. Maybe he'll check a 9 through.

[/ QUOTE ]

I mentioned that here, and in a couple other spots I think...but he's not going to check a 9 through that often. He also won't check a club through, since there's almost no way for a "semi reasonable" player to get to the river here with the 2-5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]...he'll bet most of the better ones, especially because our check says "I don't have a club(and probably don't have an ace!)."

Food for thought.

Surf

Alobar · #48 09-21-2005, 08:14 PM

Im bet/folding. at 3/6 you dont have to worry about bluff raises or what not. And he will call you with plenty of worse hands, that wont bet if you check. Hell call you more times with some [censored] pair or 2 pair, than he will with a club or A or 9, he may even fold something like J9 that doesnt have a club cuz hes scared of the clubs. Tho its not likely, due to the reason I like a bet, which is people at 3/6 will call you with anything.

ggbman · #49 09-21-2005, 08:33 PM

I never agree with any of you. This is 3-6. He could so easily have a naked jack or queen and had the intention of raising the turn, but didnt because of clubs. You never want to not see showdown with top set when you have never been raised in the whole hand, and this river is SUCH a great card for someone to bluff raise. Also, to those of you who say "bet b/c a straight won't raise" should realize most of the time they won't bet in the first place so you save a bet.

kidcolin · #50 09-21-2005, 09:01 PM

At 3/6 you gets calls from worse hands that won't bet way more than you'll get bluffed by a hand that you beat. Way more.

I said early in the thread this a great board to bluff at. That might've been a poor choice of words. I can see skilled players take shots at other skilled players on this board, and even then it's close. It's tough because in order for a bluff raise to be successful, you have to have some confidence the PFR is willing to fold an Ace here.

I'm with surfbullet here. I take the bet/fold line, and if someone takes the cold-call, call, call, raise line and bluffs me out of this pot, I tip my hat to them.