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#41
10-31-2005, 05:53 PM
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Re: minus 581 bets.
[ QUOTE ]
pull a mike i, buy a house. [/ QUOTE ] It's Mike L, and yeah, I'll be doing that in the spring/early summer. 
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#44
10-31-2005, 06:22 PM
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Re: minus 581 bets.
[ QUOTE ]
Amazingly after a huge Saturday night, I am up for the month, BUT I definitely noticed that I was slightly gun shy and lost some bets on rivers since I was so accostom to being beat by the river card. I too am way overbankrolled for that game, but the doubt has to creep in. Eventually you get sick of being raised on an innocuous card on the river and having to call down becasue you think people have to be putting plays on you since they cant suck out every time. It is a difficult cycle to work through. [/ QUOTE ] Play NL. More control.
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#46
10-31-2005, 06:25 PM
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Re: minus 581 bets.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Amazingly after a huge Saturday night, I am up for the month, BUT I definitely noticed that I was slightly gun shy and lost some bets on rivers since I was so accostom to being beat by the river card. I too am way overbankrolled for that game, but the doubt has to creep in. Eventually you get sick of being raised on an innocuous card on the river and having to call down becasue you think people have to be putting plays on you since they cant suck out every time. It is a difficult cycle to work through. [/ QUOTE ] Play NL. More control. [/ QUOTE ] That wasn't my quote....it was dpr's.
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#47
10-31-2005, 07:10 PM
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You probably have figured this, but FWIW
I am calcing this in my head, but I think this is a -3.3s.d. event for a 1.5/18 player in 40k hands.
So as with any event of course it is possible it is variance, but it is pretty unlucky if it is so. Of course this month sample is not random as you have selected your worst month so this stats is not as meaningful as many people would like it to be. Nevertheless, being over 1100 BB below expectation is pretty big swing. Seems like as good a time as any to evaluate some plays. Would be interesting to run the sim to see how many players out of 1000 1.5/18 players would experience this bad a swing in 500k hands.
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#49
10-31-2005, 07:27 PM
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Re: minus 581 bets.
[ QUOTE ]
so you're up overall? you're up 500+ bets? umm.. [/ QUOTE ] Yes. So you could say this really is all pretty stupid. It's just kinda crazy how much I'm down on one site. People talk about such huge swings beeing next to impossible...well...I pretty much proved they're not eh? but still I've lost the last 7 of 8 days overall. Blegh. Getting a little annoying.
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#50
10-31-2005, 07:34 PM
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Re: minus 581 bets.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] so you're up overall? you're up 500+ bets? umm.. [/ QUOTE ] Yes. So you could say this really is all pretty stupid. It's just kinda crazy how much I'm down on one site. People talk about such huge swings beeing next to impossible...well...I pretty much proved they're not eh? but still I've lost the last 7 of 8 days overall. Blegh. Getting a little annoying. [/ QUOTE ] Kind of sounds like doubts are creeping in (not in your game but of the site). And I can't see this big a swing being play related. After so many hands played and practiced, your skill level, PT notes + HUD, a lot of your play is second nature with that VPIP. You're either running into big hands or getting drawn out (both or had 1 huge tilt induced session, done that when I was drunk and didn't remember). That's an insane number, to me it's almost unbelievable for a player of your caliber. It's Oct 31st not April 1st. Maybe this is a belated joke
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