First Hand of WSOP 2005

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
having Big Slick might change my play her, but if it is sooted, I'm in.

Thats truly scary...do you really think you are that bad with an avg stack??

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for once, I agree with you re: AK, zaxx.

[sloth469]

Yeah an attempt at sarcasm that didn't translate well, I spelled suited wrong figuring you would all pick up on it. Oh well.

-sloth

[Huskiez]

Thanks everyone for responding.

I was just curious as to what MTTers would do in this situation. I think there are a couple of interesting things to point out:

11% of voters changed from calling to folding KK when UTG was a senior citizen instead of college player. I think this is incredible. I have rarely played live poker at a casino, but am shocked that such a number of people would change their decision based on a stereotype. I am on the young side, so I guess I'm happy people would think of me as a loose cannon at the table.

4% of voters changed from fold to calling with KK when UTG was instead SB. I think this too is a huge increase given that the player probably would have moved all in in both positions.

It appears there was no change from TV table to non-TV table for calling KK. I would have expected more people to call at the TV table for two reasons:

1. You're up against tougher competition with the poker pros, so you might not see such a favorable spot any time soon.
2. It will be televised, so if you happen to make a terrible laydown, you'll probably get flamed for a very long time, though not by anyone who knows poker.

FWIW, my personal answers were Call, Fold, Fold, Call, Call, Call.

[zaxx19]

Your post may well have been sarcastic...22 voters seemed to aggree with calling with AKs though....

Again that is very very scary IMHO.

p.s. Id be WAY in over my head poker wise at the main event( or any other WSOP event lol) so I think I make a crying call with KK here. Just cant see myself laying KK and telling myself I was playing to win the thing.

Now if the raiser was a known player I might have to fold bc I dont see how a pro could be moving in with less than AA here..and perhaps the pro has some Meta-reasoning for just pushing here.(i.e. creating a loose image at the table??)

[yoshi_yoshi]

I know some people want to drop this thread but I got to it late and after browsing through I just had to put my two cents in. Unless you find something wrong with my math, I am absolutely sure folding is the right play,

and calling w/ anything but AA is ridiculous!

The guy just pushed in for 200 big blinds. Is it that hard to believe he has AA? About one in 25 times someone at your table will have AA when you have KK.

I'll put out another hypothetical. It's not quite the same situation, but by the end it should support my point.

You are in the small blind now with KK, and everyone has folded to you. Blinds are 25/50. However, in this one decision, you can only push or fold. The question is: How deep does your stack have to be for your push to become -EV, assuming that the big blind will only call with AA.

Right off the bat... 220/221 of the time you will win 75 chips. The 1/221 of the time, however, you will have an ~18% chance at 2*x chips. (x being your stack size)

220/221 * (x+75) + (0.18)(2x)/221 = x - 25 (amount of chips if fold)
x ~ 34413 chips. You only have 10000, so this is an easy push.

However, let's look at from the button. 1/110 either SB or BB has AA.
109/110 * (x+75) + (0.18)(2x)/110 = x
x ~ 12773 chips. Hmmmm.... still a push, but getting closer.

You probably know where I'm going - zoom all the way back to UTG. From here, 1 in 25 times you will run into AA.

24/25 * (x + 75) + (0.18)(2x)/25 = x
x ~ 2813 chips. Don't push with more than 50-60 big blinds! At 200 big blinds, pushing UTG with KK is theoretically major major -EV, (except of course, in real life it's not, because all these people are calling with QQ, AK as well.)

Now back to your original question. With all this math in mind, no intelligent player would move in with anything but AA, so you must fold.

So you argue, but THIS guy is an idiot... who would move in UTG w/ AA the very first hand of the WSOP?? He doesn't have it, so I should call.

Well, I had never thought it myself, but after seeing this poll, you can see why moving in is not at all horrible. You're probably not maximizing EV, but you can't call this guy an idiot (if he did have AA). In fact, if he knew anyone with KK would call....

EV =
24/25 * 10075 + (0.82)(2*10000)/25 = 10328
That's about 6.5 big blinds. Isn't the average for AA something like 3 BBs? (I'm not sure about this last statement, just heard it somewhere)

So at the 2005 WSOP, if you get AA UTG, don't be afraid to push it [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] If 60% of 2+2 would call with KK, how many 'outsiders' do you think would?

[Damian UK]

dead easy - you fold every hand even AA.....

why? coz you want to win the tourney right?? coz you want to play some hands - its a marathon not a sprint - double up later

you aint interested in being a numpty and being busted out first hand are you?

easy throw away - I wouldn't even look at my cards if I heard ALL IN

Damian

[Masquerade]

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I fail to understand how someone could possibly justify calling w/ KK here...

[/ QUOTE ]

I fail to understand how someone could possibly justify folding KK here...

[DesertCat]

[ QUOTE ]
dead easy - you fold every hand even AA.....

why? coz you want to win the tourney right?? coz you want to play some hands - its a marathon not a sprint - double up late

Damian

[/ QUOTE ]


Your chances of winning the tournament will decrease significantly if you fold AA preflop. And you are unlikely to ever get a better opportunity to double up than calling an all-in with AA pre-flop.

[SoCalPat]

[ QUOTE ]
dead easy - you fold every hand even AA.....

why? coz you want to win the tourney right?? coz you want to play some hands - its a marathon not a sprint - double up later

you aint interested in being a numpty and being busted out first hand are you?

easy throw away - I wouldn't even look at my cards if I heard ALL IN

Damian

[/ QUOTE ]

Weak-tight thinking at its best. What difference does it make if it's the first hand or the 1,000th? Unless playing AA would severely damage your chances of significantly moving up in the prize pool (see Sklansky's hypothetical in TPFAP to know what I'm talking about), there is never a reason to dump this before the flop.

Why should I worry about doubling up later when I'm a huge favorite to double-up now? Are you afraid of going up against the other AA and losing when he makes a flush? This "fold AA" thinking is absurd.

And frankly, why should I be afraid of being looked at as a "numpty" (whatever that is) when I'm getting in all my money with the best of it on my side. Only a numpty folds AA here, or anywhere (Sklansky's hypo notwithstanding).

[REL18]

How can u call with kk here explain it