$10/20... Marginal 44 in MP...

[spamuell]

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Your math assumes that it is 3-handed but actually when you raise the pot is 5-handed and you have 2 loose opponents behind you, massively decreasing your equity.

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I have 2 opponents who are slighty loose. I still don't think they are calling here with any great frequency unless they already have me beat, and possibly not even then.

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So you're just going to completely ignore them? Btw no one who cold-calls with 88 or 99 folds them here so it's really only 55 or 66 that you might get to fold, and even then you might not, especially from the first coldcaller.

Also, there are lots of cold-calling hands which have a Q in them.

[27offsooot]

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I can almost certainly fold 55-99 from the idiots behind me with my raise, there's a small chance they fold a 7.


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Can you explain this?

I don't like the flop for the fact that u're raising a bet-call in a large field where u're very likely behind. You do have a clean two outer with close to good odds, so i don't hate a call here, but think a fold is best not closing the action.

[TheMetetron]

Alright, spamuell, I'll let someone else figure this out. I'm running on 18 straight hours and would love to keep this going, but it's bed time. When I wake up, I'll post some final thoughts.

[spydog]

I don't raise this PF. However, I play the rest of the hand the same. Not sure why everyone is so easy to give up when this is a great flop for you in a large pot. I would be more worried if SB hadn't raised preflop and now led into 4 players, but this is a continuation bet a lot of the time. BB's call sucks but he's getting 16:1 on it, so it's not like he's folding much in this spot. Your hand is best on this flop very often, so your pot-protected raise will fold CO and Button unless they have something. If someone coldcalls this, then you don't have to spend any more bets.

Well played.

[oreogod]

Well I ran a few tests. Mostly just going off what he said on range of hands...whether I agreed or not, I was just putting the numbers out there. Also, I did do some tests going off 5 handed flops and the equity for Heros hands dropped at most 8% points. From a 29 percent equity to a 21 percent. This is of course going on the rounds that SB has overcards.

Obviously if CO and Button are bad cold callers they are probably calling w/ 88 or 99. I was tooling around w/ numbers...if u guys can do one better by all means...give it a shot. I try and do my best most of the time.

As far as the hand Hero has to at least call this flop. He is getting more than enough just calling to hit his set. The question is, while raising is marginal, does it improve the chances Hero will win this pot?

[Entity]

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I hate raising. What does it do for you? I would call and see what happens.

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I'm definitely not calling.

It's raise/fold for me here.

Very important point: This pot is HUGE and I want to maximize my chance of taking it down. Not raising gives any hand correct odds and no fear of seeing a turn.

Fold will clear out CO & Button from any hand that didn't hit the board + some pocket pairs. If they call, I'm out of this hand save a 4.

If SB 3-bets, I can figure out where I am much easier and will fold the turn without a 4.

We may (but probably won't) fold out the BB. At the very least, we find out where he is and get initiative for the rest of the hand against him to make him fold something with outs on the turn.

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I think this is really the wrong time to have a raise/fold mentality.

Rob

[Lmn55d]

I just want to say that I'm pretty sure that calling is better than raising by a pretty large margin here. If you raise you're still giving overcards odds to call. Calling allows you to get away if it's two bets back to you, or raise a nice turn and ACTUALLY protect your hand. Or fold to a bad turn. Obviously folding works as well. I think I would call though.

[bugstud]

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I hate raising. What does it do for you? I would call and see what happens.

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I'm definitely not calling.

It's raise/fold for me here.

Very important point: This pot is HUGE and I want to maximize my chance of taking it down. Not raising gives any hand correct odds and no fear of seeing a turn.

Fold will clear out CO & Button from any hand that didn't hit the board + some pocket pairs. If they call, I'm out of this hand save a 4.

If SB 3-bets, I can figure out where I am much easier and will fold the turn without a 4.

We may (but probably won't) fold out the BB. At the very least, we find out where he is and get initiative for the rest of the hand against him to make him fold something with outs on the turn.

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I think this is really the wrong time to have a raise/fold mentality.

Rob

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I honestly think in this case that letting in the last 2 players that would desperately calldown if they hit the turn after peeling is very wrong. without 2 others to act I think a call would be fine, and possibly best.

[Entity]

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I hate raising. What does it do for you? I would call and see what happens.

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I'm definitely not calling.

It's raise/fold for me here.

Very important point: This pot is HUGE and I want to maximize my chance of taking it down. Not raising gives any hand correct odds and no fear of seeing a turn.

Fold will clear out CO & Button from any hand that didn't hit the board + some pocket pairs. If they call, I'm out of this hand save a 4.

If SB 3-bets, I can figure out where I am much easier and will fold the turn without a 4.

We may (but probably won't) fold out the BB. At the very least, we find out where he is and get initiative for the rest of the hand against him to make him fold something with outs on the turn.

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I think this is really the wrong time to have a raise/fold mentality.

Rob

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I honestly think in this case that letting in the last 2 players that would desperately calldown if they hit the turn after peeling is very wrong. without 2 others to act I think a call would be fine, and possibly best.

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I don't think that you're doing trimming of the field when you're offering 9:1 and they're 'dumb calling stations.'

Rob

[MarkD]

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I just want to say that I'm pretty sure that calling is better than raising by a pretty large margin here. If you raise you're still giving overcards odds to call. Calling allows you to get away if it's two bets back to you, or raise a nice turn and ACTUALLY protect your hand. Or fold to a bad turn. Obviously folding works as well. I think I would call though.

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I read through the whole thread and this is what I kept thinking. At least someone else said it. I don't think I would be raising on the turn very often though as I am not good enough to know when my hand is good enough.

I dislike the PFR, but don't care about it that much.