WPT Championship Event hand

[jerrybai125]

Even though button checked the flop, i still think there is a chance he can have a set. How about an internet qualifier that slowplays too much? How about a scared player that wants to wait for a safecard to hit on the turn to put in his stack with his set?

Regardless, Paluka's raise on this turn is representing a lot of strength and players can read it as a set or top two in this case and button is going all in for 50k over that, early in the tournament. Because of that, its hard to see button doing this with a draw. If i was the button I can not see good folding equity with a semi bluff in this spot. Who would make this play with a draw here?

I still think button has a set here, you dont know much about this random player. And if he is decent enough to know to bet the flop with a set he should be decent enough to read Paluka for having a lot of strength.

[tpir90036]

Wow. Tough one. I suppose I should make some sort of attempt at a hand range/equity estimation before I answer it.

Range of hands in no particular order: KQ, AJs, JTs, 87s, 65, 66, 55, KK, QQ.

Some of those make a lot more sense than others... but without any sort of read I think they all have to be in there with some small % chance. If the player was a clown I guess other two-pair hands are possible and maybe even something really weird like AK or some other 43s semi-bluff hands.

Assigning a probablitly to those holdings given the play thus far is certainly not easy. A set does not make a ton of sense to me as he not only slow-played it on the flop, but is now killing his action on the turn. Maybe this is an overbet with the nuts (or close enough to it) type of play that is supposed to get a curiosity look-up....or maybe he is pertrified of the potential draws that are out there.

Common wisdom says to fold against a good player... but a good player probably does not have us beat here the way the hand played out thus far. And if it's a bad player... there are too many other hands that sneak into the hand range.

I call and most likely walk away from the table looking silly.

[Matt Flynn]

fold of course. unless you can make a huge read or the opponent is nutty.

[Paluka]

The player on the button is an aggressive player who has made a WPT final table before, but he is not particularly well known. I do not know if our hero with KQ knew any of this.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
fold of course. unless you can make a huge read or the opponent is nutty.

[/ QUOTE ]

really? that clear cut?

[A_PLUS]

I was discussing this hand with a friend last night, and decided that the only way someone sould definitely call, was to an aggressive MTT pro. I think the range of hand estimates really change dramatically based on the type of player, we are up against.

If it is an internet qualifier, who has never played deep stack poker, you should probably fold. I think a small set and QQQ get a bump in probability here. That type of player, will be more likely to miss the probe bet, to build the pot on the flop. Also, they are also more likely to me scared of draws with a set of Queens on the turn, happy to win 13+K.

Exclude the two extremes (aggressive pro / internet newbie) I dont think this is a sure fold.

This is one aspect I havent seen anyone discuss, which I would like to see the better players opinions on. What if we are on the button, what do we think you have?

Limp-Call preflop, check K high flop, 10K raise with Q, and 2 spades on turn.

I would come close to throwing out KQ. I cant see why Hero wouldn't bet the flop with KQ. I have a hard time giving our hero a set of King or Queens as well, given the preflop limp. A set of 5s or 6s is unlikely without a bet on the flop. So what might a good player put the Hero on?

Semi-bluff hands (all at least possible given flop betting)
AJs, JTs, ATs, 78s.

Made hands (this depends on my view of the original 3.5K raiser as well). This is where I am having a hard time.
AQ (As), KT, KJ
A would think AQ is the most likely of these hands. Although you cant rule out a player playing a middle king like this. Not a great play, but I dont think you can rule it out.

So I am the button. It doesnt look to me like you have a monster. If the 1st 3.5K bet is aggressive I dont think we have to give a HUGE amount of credit to either hand (Im not saying likely, just possible). If that is so, he very well may have K5, K6 here. I dont play any deep stack MTTs, but I know in deep stack ring play, I will occasionally limp with K6s, into a unraised pot from the button. Also will call the raise with great odds and position.

My point is, given how the HERO played the hand, I think we can upgrade the % that the button is bluffing and upgrade the % of K6, K5. Enough to make a call? There are better players here to answer that.

BTW, I make this call for no other reason than I will need to win hands like this if I am going to win the tourney.

[MLG]

who?

[chuddo]

fold. deep stacks, raised pot, 5 see the flop, which is checked through, and then the action gets crazy on the turn. the re-raising allin button is most likely not a big-draw semi-bluff, as he would probably be worried about not having enough folding equity if a monster is out there, as the action has indicated may be the case.

i think the bare minimum that you are going to be shown here is a matching KQ, but i don't even think that is as likely as the set.

a weekly tourney that i play in is ridiculously deep-stacked, and at the early levels limping the button with a hand like QQ and playing it in this fashion is very effective.

[Paluka]

[ QUOTE ]
fold. deep stacks, raised pot, 5 see the flop, which is checked through, and then the action gets crazy on the turn. the re-raising allin button is most likely not a big-draw semi-bluff, as he would probably be worried about not having enough folding equity if a monster is out there,

[/ QUOTE ]

So you think both these things can be true a) You should fold top 2 pair and b) a big draw would not go all-in because of a lack of folding equity?

[Paluka]

Well, I have learned something from this thread. Semibluffing all-in is a huge winner against the typical small-winner straightforward playing internet tourney player. Against big fish or tourney pros, I'm still not sure.