hand vs. Angelina

[James282]

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A checkraise on the river is one thing but a checkraise river bluff is another. In order for the latter to work, one has to be very confident that the other guy will bet the river for him. If that confidence is not there, a bluff bet is the safer course than a river checkraise bluff.

IME, most river checkraise bluffs come to mind after the fact. That is, they happen when player A has given up on a hand because he expects Player B to call if he bluffs. But then he also expects Player B to check if he checks. But when Player B bets instead of chceking, it then dawns on Player A that perhaps Player B may also be weak thereby making Player A think that a river chcekraise bluff might work.

Here, that situation would not arise given the board and previous action thereby making a river checkraise bluff quite risky for Angelina. So, if she did chcekraise DCFIR's river bet, I would be hardpressed to think that she might be bluffing often enough to make my call positive Ev.

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You are right, but against a player like Angelina ruling out a river cr could be pretty dangerous.
-James

[mike l.]

"afterwards though i thought that i might fold out a better pair of 7s w/ a draw of somekind in addition to the 9."

so even though he's clearly calling you down with a pair of 6s maybe he'll fold a pair of 7s or 9s. right. good thinking.

[DcifrThs]

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"afterwards though i thought that i might fold out a better pair of 7s w/ a draw of somekind in addition to the 9."

so even though she's clearly calling you down with a pair of 6s maybe she'll fold a pair of 7s or 9s. right. good thinking.

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i dont think he calls the river with the K6.

Barron

[James282]

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Hey flawless, I have check-raised rivers like this several times in my poker career, especially when playing shorthanded against people who think that no one would ever bluff a river like this.
-James

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I think checkraises in spots like this work better on slightly different boards where it's more clear what you are representing.

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I agree. I would almost never checkraise here. That doesn't mean that there are other tough and over-aggro players in shorthanded games who wouldn't.
-James

[flawless_victory]

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"afterwards though i thought that i might fold out a better pair of 7s w/ a draw of somekind in addition to the 9."

so even though she's clearly calling you down with a pair of 6s maybe she'll fold a pair of 7s or 9s. right. good thinking.

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i dont think he calls the river with the K6.

Barron

[/ QUOTE ]youre most likely wrong here.

[elindauer]

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Here, that situation would not arise given the board and previous action thereby making a river checkraise bluff quite risky for Angelina. So, if she did chcekraise DCFIR's river bet, I would be hardpressed to think that she might be bluffing often enough to make my call positive Ev.

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This board has a couple of missed draws that may have been raised on the turn. Diamonds and spades both missed.

For exactly the same reason that a pair is always calling your river bet, a low missed draw may take a shot at raising. He can easily think that you are on a draw.

Whether or not your analysis is correct that you can't call a raise is another question. Maybe, maybe not. The point is, it's perfectly reasonable for him to think you may have been drawing and missed, so assigning him a probability of ZERO (not your words skp, I know) to bluff raise this draw heavy board is crazy.

-eric

[skp]

All true but the natural inclination for Angelina if she considers the probability of Dcfir being on a draw being high enough is then for Angelina to bluff herself rather than going for a bluff checkraise.

For a bluff checkraise to be put into action, several elements need to be present:

1. Angelina must have a nothing hand - for if she had a little something, checkcalling is better

2. DCFir must have a nothing hand which he will bet or Dcfir must have a weak hand with which he will bet and release to a checkraise

So, if say Angelina had a missed spade draw or whatever was on the board but also felt that DCFir may have been on a draw and missed, she would way more likely bluff than bluff checkraise.

But I agree that her chances of bluff checkraising aren't zero.

[mike l.]

"turn is a great card for me, 6s. angelina bets out, i raise, he hesitates for a sec and calls my bet."

"i dont think he calls the river with the K6."

he is definitely calling you down man.

[DcifrThs]

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"turn is a great card for me, 6s. angelina bets out, i raise, he hesitates for a sec and calls my bet."

"i dont think he calls the river with the K6."

he is definitely calling you down man.

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yea you're right. i thought that at the time he could have maybe folded a 7 with a better kicker, but ex post ante its clearly not happeneing. i should probably adjust my value betting range accordingly.

Barron

[krishanleong]

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"turn is a great card for me, 6s. angelina bets out, i raise, he hesitates for a sec and calls my bet."

"i dont think he calls the river with the K6."

he is definitely calling you down man.

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yea you're right. i thought that at the time he could have maybe folded a 7 with a better kicker, but ex post ante its clearly not happeneing. i should probably adjust my value betting range accordingly.

Barron

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If you are being called down by a pair of 6s in this spot. Doesn't that make the turn semi-bluff pretty iffy if not downright bad?

Krishan