Party 55, Who's the donk here?

[michw]

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The point is, you can't just ignore the ICM numbers. If your goal is to make money, you should be following the ICM numbers unless you believe that the assumptions of the model do not apply to a particular situation for one reason or another. You can't just go against ICM unless you understand exactly why it might be in error. That requires a solid understanding of the model. I'm not trying to be harsh here, but for you to say something like "ICM says AK is a fold here, but I think calling is right" without even trying to explain why ICM is wrong shows that you really don't have this understanding. But since I see posts like that all the time, you clearly aren't the only one.


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Agreed, and I'm unable to do that in this scenario given my current ICM knowledge.

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Sorry I had to call you out like this, but it needed to be said. The good news is that there's a TON of information on this stuff for you to learn if you choose to. I think if you read up on some of that ICM theory and maybe try to do some calculations (by hand, not with SGA), your game will improve a lot

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Agreed. I actually ran through several hand ICM calculations on this board earlier in the year with some help from others. I'm proficient with the calculations just not understanding the underlying assumptions that drive the model. But.... maybe if i thoroughly understood the underlying assumptions, the anomolies, and the practical application of the tool, I could then show why my intuition is right in this situation, and that that ICM cannot be applied, and that I was right all along, and glorious vindication!!! bwahahahahaha...i've got some work to do

[Chaostracize]

The BBs range for calling is huge. I don't care about reads. I fold this. Period. I want to make money. The difference between third and fourth is 100 bucks.

[Chaostracize]

As villain I am only calling with AA and KK... maybe QQ.

[KingDan]

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At this level people do not understand that it is incorrect to call with AK. This is the reason you should fold.

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Folding AK 4 handed is not easy, and you cannot expect anyone at this level to do so.
This does not mean it is not a push, it just means you have to include it in their range. You can't assume that he will only call QQ, KK, and AA even, even if that is the best play.

[BadMongo]

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I don't care about reads.

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I want to make money.

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I think you may have a problem here. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[lastchance]

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I don't care about reads.

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I want to make money.

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I think you may have a problem here. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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Yeah, I have to agree. If Villain can smartly lay down AT here, and SB isn't calling any 2, you push this if you want to make money. At a place where most understand gap concept, and people understand principles behind ICM, this is an autopush without reads.

[FlyWf]

This is one of the situations ICM gets wrong. Things like a 2BB stack being UTG tend to muck up the numbers, ICM will overrate the shorty's chances because it doesn't know that half his stack is going into the BB next hand.

Thing is, ICM understates how bad a call here is. It's a bad call at 50/100, it's grosteque at 250/500. You cannot call off your entire stack when you have a big stack and there are two tiny stacks, one of which is about to face the blinds. ICM probably likes a call with something like 99 there, I say QQ is a borderline call.

Excellent question. I thought about this myself not during the hand but later. I have been avoiding this play lately however as I just feel like such a donk when I do get raised but this may have been a good spot for it the stacks being the way they are. Pushing seems like the simpler play though.

Thanks for all the responses, FWIW after reading them all I think J-Lo's comment expresses my thoughts very well. BadMongo also made much sense to me. Gotta call people on statements along the lines of "well I know 2+2 is 4 but I don't think 5 is such a bad answer".