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#41
12-15-2005, 12:05 AM
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Re: 98s.
[ QUOTE ]
I don't see how you can both put him on a "good hand" on the flop, which I don't consider a small overpair to be, while putting him on a different holding as the hand progresses. [/ QUOTE ] This was what I was getting at. If you don't adjust your reads as the hand progresses you'll get yourself in trouble. Don't get married to a hand, or a read. On the flop a tight player bet in a multiway flop on an all low card flop. Right there I want to maximize value from a set because it's very likely he has that hand. You made a just under pot raise and the villian calls. Now it really doesn't look he has a set, wouldn't a set 3bet here to insure action from two pair, and to protect against a semibluffing type hand? Now the turn, he bets small when the board pairs. Sure this could be a boat, but it's also likely that he is making a pseudo blocking bet with 88 again to defend against your possible blocking bet on the river. Now he bets again on the river, you're getting a good price in a pot where your hand is (justly) underrepresented. So I say again I like a call. -SmileyEH 
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#43
12-15-2005, 03:46 AM
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Re: 98s.
[ QUOTE ]
folding that river is horrendous... [/ QUOTE ] like, really really awful. like, wow. OMG. woah. that is one horrible play. BTW/ plz dont yell at me.
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#45
12-15-2005, 06:04 AM
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Re: 98s.
This is one of the worser folds I've seen. It's almost horrible.
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#46
12-15-2005, 06:47 AM
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Re: 98s.
I would definitely call, but I don't really have a problem with a fold. I'm not familiar with full ring stats, but for 6 max, those stats would indicate a set miner. It looks like you are getting value bet by a set that boated up. Possibly weak lead on turn and river praying to get raised?
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#48
12-15-2005, 09:08 AM
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Re: 98s.
I think your read is valid.. and it's coupled by the fact that he bet perfectly.. nearly half the pot both times..
This allows you to catch a possible straight with 7/8s (if he reads you for that possiblity) by simply calling, and also gives you the option of reraising if you think he's weak. He's betting into you on purpose, and with exreme strength in my opinion. I put him on a Boat, and I think you're less than 25% to win in this situation. Great fold in my opinion
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#49
12-15-2005, 09:14 AM
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Re: 98s.
If you people put so much faith in stats, why don't you take a look at his WSD, which is 39%. Don't you think that set-miners would have a higher percentage of winning showdowns?
This fold is terrible. This is 200NL. Villain is not even showing much strength. You would think that on a board like that he would try to extract more value out of FH.
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#50
12-15-2005, 12:36 PM
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Re: 98s.
you can se 88's, 99's, and 34s enough times to make a turn and river call profitable. His bets look like scared blocking bets more than value bets. I don't think he'd raise either of those PP's either since his PFR is only 6
If you really think you're beat by a boat, you can't call that turn bet if you're folding to a small river bet on a blank river; you're just wasting money on the turn. That being said I call both streets.
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