Yet Another Pot Odds Question

[Mangatang]

Here's an example:

There are 2 limpers to you. You limp along with JTs on the button. The SB fold, and the BB checks.

The flop comes Q 9 2. You have an open-ender. It's checked to the second limper who bets. At that point you are getting 5:1 pot odds (which is good enough to draw one card in seach of your straight). But let's say you decide to calculate your effective odds. To do so, you need to estimate who you think will call this bet, and who will bet on the turn. Let's assume that you guess that only one of the two remaining players will call this flop bet, and you assume that the same guy will bet it on the turn. That means that you are getting 9:3 effective odds, or 3:1. Since 3:1 is greater than the 2.5:1 that you need to complete your straight with two cards to come. So you call.

And as expected, the BB fold, and the first limper calls the flop. The turn brings no help. But the actions goes different than anticipated. The first person bets, and the second person raises. At that very moment, you are getting 6.5:2, or slightly greater than 3:1.

At this point, you only have one card left to come. You know the odds of you hitting your straight are 5:1, so you correctly fold your hand.

It doesn't matter that your flop decision was using effective odds assuming that you would see 2 cards to come, you still should fold on the turn. Making a call on the turn when you clearly don't have the odds to do so, doesn't somehow make it correct because of your flop decision.

[AngryCola]

Tell me I have no understanding of odds or probabilities one more time.

[AngryCola]

[ QUOTE ]
Making a call on the turn when you clearly don't have the odds to do so, doesn't somehow make it correct because of your flop decision.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? I didn't know that. Gee, thanks. That was never the point. Again, you are arguing that you shouldn't be USING effective odds for the reasons you stated above, THATS FINE. I'm sorry, Mangatang, I've been talking about this issue for days, and I'm a little tired of discussing it. That is why I am getting frustrated with you. You are right, and at the same time you are wrong about me not understanding odds. I do understand them. Dave wanted to know what effective odds are. You told him you shouldn't bother with them. Again, this is a fair point. But don't lecture me about what effective odds are, because I know. Effective odds deal with 2 card combinations. "You are correct to see your hand through to the end" is a quote that comes to mind.

Think about it like this. If you were wrong about your effective odds estimation on the flop, then yes, you would have to change to immediate odds. IVE NEVER DISPUTED THIS. In fact I have told Dave as much in the probability forum. That was never the point!

If you estimate yoru effective odds correctly (as is easier to do than you apparently think), then there is no reason to re-evaluate your turn call. It's that simple. If you have MADE A MISTAKE, then yes you must re-evalute. But, only if you have made an error. Your comparison of poker opponents to roulette balls, again, leads me to believe that you would think the free card play is completely ridiculous. Why use it? You don't know for SURE your opponents will check to you.

Damn, I guess that's another section of TOP we need to inform Sklansky to leave out. I'm sorry Mangatang, I have been harsh with you, but I think it is a simple misunderstanding. Some of the things you are advocating I actually agree with.

But effective odds have NOTHING, and I repeat NOTHING to do with missing on the turn. Again, your assertion that you should be using immediate pot odds is a valid point. I was just explaining what effective odds are. Not whether you should use them, but what they are. I have done that. I would appreciate it if you wouldn't insult my intelligence again. Goodbye, and have a nice day. [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[Mangatang]

Ok. It seems that we are arguing the same point. I thought in your earlier post that you advocated not considing at all what happened on the turn, and just calling no matter what, just because you used 2 cards to come in you flop effective odds calculation. But it seems that you were just saying that if the flop misses you, and all your pre-turn predictions remain the same (same amount of players and bets to you), then you still call the turn, which is correct. But, you would come to the same conclusion if you recalculated on the turn, using the odds of 1 card to come.

If you reread Dave's orinignal post in this thread, he was asking if you should use the odds of one or two cards to come when you use POT odds. That was the question I was answering. Dave did not ask about effective odds. I was just trying to give a simple answer that when using pot odds, you need to use 4:1 for a flush draw, not 2:1.

I agree, that I should have also included a reference to effective odds in my first explination, for completeness, but I didn't think that is what Dave was asking about.

[AngryCola]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree, that I should have also included a reference to effective odds in my first explination, for completeness, but I didn't think that is what Dave was asking about.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm glad we could come to some common ground, as I have stated before, and will say again: I respect Mangatang's advice and almost everything he posts.

One thing:
Dave may not have been originally asking about effective odds, but he quickly became curious given our discussions. See the probability forum for details of this. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Maybe, I shouldn't have brought it up? Heh. Again, the whole reason I got involved in this topic is because you told him "No no no this is the only way". That kind of advice usually makes my blood boil. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Anyway, good to see the confusion got worked out. I really am out this time. [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[Mangatang]

Hatchet, buried. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

This was fun.

[Dave H.]

Angry...did I state it OK...see my post at 1:40 p.m. in this thread.

Also, did you ever see my last post in the Confused about Odds in Holdem post in the Probability forum? You never commented on that!

Dave H.

[dgoldsmith]

[ QUOTE ]
That is not the final place you use them. For the love of god, read the effective odds section of TOP. And reread my post as I do not think our opponents are roulette balls.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know the two of you seem to have come to an understanding but I have 1 question for AngryCola. I've read Chapter 6 - Effective Odds from TOP and I don't see a reference to where else you would use effective odds other than on the flop in hold'em.