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#41
08-13-2005, 04:13 AM
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Re: Should You Quit Your Day Job? — Part I
You wrote: "This really is the golden age of poker right now."
I agree, but ALL golden ages end. My next two articles in "Card Player" magazine are Parts I and II of "It's a great party, but..." You'll be able to read Part I in about two weeks at cardplayer.com. The fact that almost anyone with reasonable skills and discipline can win right now means ABSOLUTELY NOTHING for the long term. The parellels to the stock market are revealing. Every time there is a bull market, lots of people make a pile of money. And then most of them give it back when the market corrects. Regards, Al 
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#42
08-13-2005, 06:03 AM
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Re: Should You Quit Your Day Job? — Part I
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] In fact, not many people play well enough to survive as full time pros, but LOTS of people think they can do it. [/ QUOTE ] Alan, doesn't the same hold true for anyone starting any home based business? Wouldn't you agree that there are some people, who if they went into it with the right mindset and education, have a chance to actually increase their lifestyle? Wouldn't you agree that someone who looked at playing poker as a business opportunity would have a higher chance of sucess than your average joe playing poker for entertainment/social value? [/ QUOTE ] You can only go pro if you treat it like a business. It has the great advantages over other new businesses in that you can prove the concept before you launch, startup capital is generated by proving the concept, no stock, no staff and no demanding customers. Downside is your not building up a business that can be expanded or sold. There's not much excuse to fail if you've proved the concept and planned properly. No doubt some will, I wonder which is more absurd 99% success rate or <5% success rate. chez
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#43
08-13-2005, 06:09 AM
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Re: Should You Quit Your Day Job? — Part I
[ QUOTE ]
You wrote: "This really is the golden age of poker right now." I agree, but ALL golden ages end. My next two articles in "Card Player" magazine are Parts I and II of "It's a great party, but..." You'll be able to read Part I in about two weeks at cardplayer.com. The fact that almost anyone with reasonable skills and discipline can win right now means ABSOLUTELY NOTHING for the long term. The parellels to the stock market are revealing. Every time there is a bull market, lots of people make a pile of money. And then most of them give it back when the market corrects. Regards, Al [/ QUOTE ] but it means a lot for the medium term. To quote somebody, in the long term we're all dead. chez
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#44
08-13-2005, 07:44 AM
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Re: Should You Quit Your Day Job? — Part I
Hey Al, I'm very looking forward to read your new article. Great stuff.
I'm not quite sure what you mean by players with reasonable skills and discipline who can win now means nothing in the long term. Are you saying that the poker boom will go bust or games will dry up in the near future with the fish going broke? I for one am not too concerned about this. Poker has been around for a long time and will continue to be. Like everything else it will evolve. The internet has opened many doors that just weren't possible before and there's tons on markets that haven't even been tapped (ie Asia). The golden age of poker will end but it won't be anytime soon in the foreseeable future. Even then, the industry will still stay strong much more so then the pre poker boom.
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#45
08-13-2005, 11:59 AM
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Re: Should You Quit Your Day Job? — Part I
Not too long ago many casinos closed their poker rooms. For example, Mohegan Sun in CT closed its room, even though there was only one serious competitor in all of New England. A number of LV casinos closed their rooms. A new room opens every month now, but some of them will fail.
Online has opened new markets, and some of them have enormous potential, especially Asia and South America. I have no idea how long the boom will last or how severe the correction will be, and neither does anyone else. Perhaps it will last for years, perhaps it will end abruptly if the US government takes certain actions. However, there is no doubt that the boom will end because ALL booms end. I agree that poker will evolve. In fact, poker has always had a Darwinian evolution. The weakest players quit or learn how to play, and the games get continuously tougher. If you played the strategies recommended in the classic books such as "Education of a poker player," you would get slaughtered. Tools such as computer simulations and Poker Tracker now provide types of data that the old-timers never even considered, and some of their strategies were just, plain wrong. The games are extremely soft now because so many newbies are playing, but the supply of newbies is not infinite. It's an exciting time to be involved with poker, but over-comfidence can be deadly. The Chinese have a strange curse: "May you live in interesting times." It means that interesting times are dangerous. All I am trying to do is to get people to think of longer term issues. Regards, Al
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#46
08-13-2005, 04:39 PM
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Re: Should You Quit Your Day Job? — Part I
[ QUOTE ]
However, there is no doubt that the boom will end because ALL booms end. [/ QUOTE ] This is great advice for anyone. Especially someone who is self-employed. I have no aspirations or ability to play poker professionally. But I always wondered how pro poker players increase their income over the long term (10-20 years). Do you play higher limits or more tables? Do the higher limits become easier over the long term. In 10 years will the competition at the $55 SnGs be comparable to the $10 SnGs?
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#47
08-13-2005, 05:04 PM
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Re: Should You Quit Your Day Job? — Part I
[ QUOTE ]
I have no aspirations or ability to play poker professionally. But I always wondered how pro poker players increase their income over the long term (10-20 years). Do you play higher limits or more tables? Do the higher limits become easier over the long term. In 10 years will the competition at the $55 SnGs be comparable to the $10 SnGs? [/ QUOTE ] I think that a good point and anyone going pro has to be aware of it. My plan is to invest in my future and in a few years time to be playing much less. In 10 years I hope to be pretty much retired and playing for pin money. It would be nice to increase my win rate as well but I'm not banking on it. chez
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#48
08-13-2005, 05:36 PM
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Re: Should You Quit Your Day Job? — Part I
[ QUOTE ]
I have no idea how long the boom will last or how severe the correction will be, and neither does anyone else. Perhaps it will last for years, perhaps it will end abruptly if the US government takes certain actions. However, there is no doubt that the boom will end because ALL booms end. [/ QUOTE ] Just like the lottery boom, or the casino boom, or the bingo boom, people just get too smart for these games. What are you even talking about? It takes one simple concept to understand that lotteries are -EV. But millions of dollars are poured into these scams, on a yearly basis. Online players getting tougher? Have you even played online? The lowest games on party are being played by people that should be at home playing nickel games, but the internet allows them to play anytime for any amount. When comparing the internet to B&M its not a BOOM, its more of a Super Nova. I've been to the casino once to play poker. grinding out 40 hands/hr? No thanks. It infinitely easier, faster, and cheaper for someone to find out if they can become an internet pro than it was for someone to become a B&M pro 10 years ago.
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#49
08-13-2005, 06:38 PM
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Re: Should You Quit Your Day Job? — Part I
You wrote: "It infinitely easier, faster, and cheaper for someone to find out if they can become an internet pro than it was for someone to become a B&M pro 10 years ago."
The word "infinitely" is absurd. It indicates that you have not thought carefully about your response. If it is infinitely easier, then it has absolutely no difficulty. If it is infinitely faster, then it occurs instantaneously. If it is infinitely cheaper, then it costs nothing? Do you seriously believe that? That's what you just said. Someone else said that the chances of making it as a pro with a few rudimentary qualifications were 99%. Where do people get numbers like that? David's column was once titled, "Fighting fuzzy thinking." We are seeing a lot of it on this issue. And this issue does not have essentially trivial effects such as whether you win a pot. It affects your entire life. For decisions with such large effects, the most careful thought is necessary. Regards, Al
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#50
08-13-2005, 08:06 PM
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Re: Should You Quit Your Day Job? — Part I
[ QUOTE ]
It infinitely easier, faster, and cheaper for someone to find out if they can become an internet pro than it was for someone to become a B&M pro 10 years ago. [/ QUOTE ] Has it occurred to you that this is the problem? Contrary to what some have suggested, it's extremely easy to become a successful online poker pro. By "extremely easy" I mean in comparison to other career changes and entry into most professions. How many other professions have allowed significant numbers of people to go from no skills and no credentials to six-figure incomes in a year or two? The explosive growth of poker cannot go on forever. At some point the fad will end and poker will either return to relative obscurity or become something like bowling--solid and permanent but not booming. The problem is that entirely too many people are turning pro. There isn't enough poker money in the world to accomodate the ever increasing number of pros (and sites too, for that matter). There are an enormous number of extremely talented people in places like India and the CIS states that don't make much money by Western standards. I hear the Internet goes to those places now [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]. The competition for fish money is going to become intense and it won't end until most pros and sites are driven out of business.
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