Super Tuesday Hand - JJ against chip leader with 15 left

[Lloyd]

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it's not about the flip at all. You push just to pick up the 35%!

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That was part of my struggle, I wasn't sure how much folding equity I had based on his play thus far.

[Lloyd]

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I had an almost identical hand in a tourney yesterday, except I had tens instead of jacks. Would you all still push preflop with tens?

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Don't hijack my thread!

[adanthar]

Folding equity is a huge bonus, but a 60/40 edge (and if he doesn't fold tens or nines and doesn't have aces, it's certainly that much) is not anything you can possibly pass up to begin with.

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On that flop...I'm betting 16K, and if called or CR'd, I'm done with the hand, half of my stack or no.

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[img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Why is there a flop again?

I like that we're looking at a standard play here and considering other options, but this time I really think there's no room for argument.

Going back to the math I did earlier, in a situation designed to be about the worst possible, he folds 45% of the time and calls you 55% of the time, in which case you have 47% equity.

This means that 45% of the time you have ~66k, 55% * 47% = ~26% of the time you have about ~108k, and ~29% of the time you have 0. Thus, the cEV of the push is ~57.8k, or ~+6.8k . Granted, it's pretty high variance, but you're only busting 30% of the time.

Now, if we relax his raising hands a little to include weaker holdings like AT and KQ and 66, 77, and throw in the odds of him bluffing, you gain huge FE, and the play becomes obvious.

[Exitonly]

oh man 43 responses... so what i'm going to say has probably been said.. and i dont feel like reading all 43.


but i push this preflop, because i think i have the best hand, think he'll call with an inferior hand, and i'd be pissed if i let his inferior hand catch up to me (ala this flop)