Marginal Hand #3 Bad call here? - Page 5

jrz1972 · #1 04-14-2005, 05:19 PM

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I notice a lot of you guys don't add the implied odds to your calculations. I think that's a pretty big mistake.

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What implied odds? When you "hit" your hand, all you got was a measley 1 BB out of Villian. That sucks.

If anything, what you've illustrated is a "reverse implied odds" situation. You hit your hand on the river, but you still weren't in a position to bet it aggressively and collect extra bets from your opponent. That's the opposite of what people mean when they add in implied odds to justify an earlier call.

Entity · #2 04-14-2005, 05:25 PM

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Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, CO raises, Button calls, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (12 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP3 checks, CO bets, Button folds, Hero calls, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, MP3 calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP3 checks, CO bets, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

River: (10.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP3 checks, CO bets, Hero calls, MP3 folds.

Final Pot: 12.50 BB

Results in white below: 
Hero has 8h Th (two pair, tens and eights).
CO has Kh Kc (one pair, kings).
Outcome: Hero wins 12.50 BB. 

So I lucked out and my 8 outs were good afterall. Even after thinking about it for a while I believe I still call the turn. Seems like I have just enough outs to call with the implied odds added in.

I notice a lot of you guys don't add the implied odds to your calculations. I think that's a pretty big mistake. Especially on marginal flop calls.

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Your call was profitable by the thinnest of margins -- you had a 5 outer getting 8.5:1 with the possibility of it being raised behind you. You got a bit lucky this time.

In the future, I'd say your weighted outs put this closer to a 3 outer, given that you'll frequently be drawing dead, occasionally be drawing to 9ish outs, and often be drawing to 4 outs. Even if we were to bump the estimates up and give you 4 outs on the whole, the fact that you aren't closing the action on this turn with bottom pair and a gutshot makes it a good time to fold.

I will also say that your preflop call is less sound if you routinely make calls like this on the turn. You seem to overvalue your outs frequently on the turn.

Rob

grjr · #3 04-14-2005, 05:49 PM

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I will also say that your preflop call is less sound if you routinely make calls like this on the turn. You seem to overvalue your outs frequently on the turn.

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Yeah, like I said at the beginning I realize this was probably a bad call on the turn. I made a snap judgement and decided to call. Like I said earlier, I play a lot of hands on 4 tables so I'm usually not going to figure out exact clean and dirty outs. If you're off by 1 out (which is a guesstimate anyways because you don't KNOW what the other player has) then I don't think that would be a "serious" leak--at least not at this level.

Entity · #4 04-14-2005, 05:53 PM

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I will also say that your preflop call is less sound if you routinely make calls like this on the turn. You seem to overvalue your outs frequently on the turn.

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Yeah, like I said at the beginning I realize this was probably a bad call on the turn. I made a snap judgement and decided to call. Like I said earlier, I play a lot of hands on 4 tables so I'm usually not going to figure out exact clean and dirty outs. If you're off by 1 out (which is a guesstimate anyways because you don't KNOW what the other player has) then I don't think that would be a "serious" leak--at least not at this level.

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If you can't make proper decisions 4-tabling, you should probably be playing less poker. The intent of playing .5/1 is to learn to play better poker, which involves thinking about some hands.

A quick guesstimate (should take a few seconds at most) should put your outs here at between 3 and 4, realistically no higher than 5 on average. You need 8.2:1 to call for a 5-outer so I'd fold here, not closing the action, with less than 5 outs on the whole.

Rob

Catt · #5 04-14-2005, 08:08 PM

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So I lucked out and my 8 outs were good afterall. Even after thinking about it for a while I believe I still call the turn. Seems like I have just enough outs to call with the implied odds added in.

I notice a lot of you guys don't add the implied odds to your calculations. I think that's a pretty big mistake. Especially on marginal flop calls.

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I KNEW I worded that poorly and someone would misunderstand. What I meant was my outs if an 8 hit were actually good (although there was no way to know that in advance).

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Hey grjr, I like some of the hands you post -- generates good discussion. I also like that you take debate and dissension with a pretty good attitude. That said . . .

I have no idea what you mean by counting "implied odds, especially on marginal flop calls." You have no T or 8 outs on your flop call. You basically have a gutshot and a BDFD. I really don't think you can count undecards as legitimate outs, facing this field, on this flop, with this pre-flop action. You may as well give a hand of 72o on this board some out value too, because it can runner-runner two pair.

I think your flop call is fine (as is pre-flop) -- even if there's an aggressive player to act behind you, getting 13-1 plus the implied odds if you spike a 9 makes this a comfortable call for me.

Once the T falls on the turn, your BDFD is gone, your 9 outs are significantly devalued, but you pick up 2 T outs and 3 8 outs, which also need to be discounted a bit given the risk on this Board -- I'd say you have at most 4.5 outs and I think more realistically you have ~3 to 3.5 outs.

And add to this that you really don't have any significant implied odds on the turn call -- even if you spike an 8 or a T, your hand is probably not strong enough to both bet/raise the others to collect a number of extra BBs and win the hand. It might, might be strong enough to win. Assume you collect 2 extra BBs on the river when you spike a T or an 8 -- a reasonable assumption I think, because (1) I don't think it likely you can call and get raised behind, (2) I don't think you raise, get a river CC and another call; or (3) get 3-bet with a hand that you beat. Add those 2 BBS (implied odds) to the turn, and you're getting 11.5 to 1 not closing the action. That is not quite enough to call -- even assuming a generous "out count" and a resonable turn / river action IMHO.

I think pf and flop are fine. I think the turn call wasn't.

grjr · #6 04-14-2005, 09:02 PM

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I have no idea what you mean by counting "implied odds, especially on marginal flop calls."

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I wasn't talking about this hand specifically when I said that. I'm talking about the people who have a gutshot draw to the nuts on the flop and say, "I have a 10.5:1 chance of hitting my nut straight but the pot is only offering me 9:1 so I can't call here".

That's what I'm talking about and I see it all the time here. Not from the old time math guys but from the "wannabe" math guys. I think the wannabes would improve more if the implied odds part was pointed out to them more.

Catt · #7 04-14-2005, 09:51 PM

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I wasn't talking about this hand specifically when I [referenced implied odds]. I'm talking about the people who have a gutshot draw to the nuts on the flop and say, "I have a 10.5:1 chance of hitting my nut straight but the pot is only offering me 9:1 so I can't call here".

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OK - I understand better - I was confused by the subject in this hand / thread. I will say I see references (implied [Ha!] or explicit) to implied odds often enough, but it certainly cannot hurt to specifically state in other posts that a call makes sense when considering implied odds.

mvoss · #8 04-14-2005, 05:22 PM

I'd fold this one. CO could be trying to steal the blinds but you really don't know, and you haven't gt a very good hand.

HiatusOver · #9 04-14-2005, 05:26 PM

This is a very easy pre-flop fold. If you are in the Big Blind u can call

Entity · #10 04-14-2005, 05:28 PM

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This is a very easy pre-flop fold. If you are in the Big Blind u can call

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This is far from an easy fold at these limits, against these opponents, especially in a 1/2 structure. Getting somewhere between 6-7:1 on the preflop call with good relative position and some donks in between, it's ok.

Rob