**Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge** (Xpost)

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if i were adanthar, i'd just have someone pass me some chips in each of my tourneys.

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You mean cheat?

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if i were adanthar, i'd just have someone pass me some chips in each of my tourneys.

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I assume if the account gets frozen by party, adanthar loses.

Also, I think we can trust him not to cheat.

[EverettKings]

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if i were adanthar, i'd just have someone pass me some chips in each of my tourneys.

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Well then thank god I'm not betting with you. I'm betting with a Adanthar.

Besides, he's a lawyer: he wouldn't lie, cheat or steal if his job depended on it. Wait a tick....


Everett

[cha59]

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I'm rooting for Adanthar...but I don't think he can pull it off. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

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This is possible for players of far less ability than Adanthar.

I say he will do it. GL Adanthar! [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

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Of course it's possible, the point is how probable.

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All he has to do is get to the step 5, not win it. Once you get past step 1, the top two places move up. Its hard to get knocked all the way out of these.

I dont know what the odds are, but I like his chances.

[bones]

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There's just so many bad beats on L1 & 2. This is where the real trouble is.

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Poker is 5% luck, 10% bad beats, all the rest skill.

[valenzuela]

forum experience of wild prop bets:
Irieguy: LOSE
Gigabet : LOSE
Adanthar: xxxx

Btw we are talking about great posters, we arent talking about the avg. dude that beats the 33s.


PS:I feel like puking every time I see one of those " the lower buy-ins are hard because of bad beats".( yep thats u scuba...)

[beeyjay]

I agree but don't think this should be enough to make you think he is a good bet here. That said my money is on him.

[Freudian]

There is no way this is a +EV bet for Adanthar. That said, he might pull it off if he hits a lucky streak.

[EverettKings]

Alright, this thing definitely dragged on for much longer than it should, but apparantly these ministeps were a real pain/bore to play so it took a few prods to get adanthar to finish these suckers but....

Adanthar busted. Sweeeeeeeeeeeet-- I mean, how unfortunate.

If you go to my
Ministep Calculator

you can tinker with a little applet I made to simulate the ministep challenge. It just takes your given bankroll and (based on the given percentages) simulates stepping through the levels until you either hit step 5 or don't have enough $$ to buy in any more. It does this a few thousand times (or however many times you tell it to) and spits out some data. Anyway.

I thought that the numbers that I gave Adanthar in that applet were quite generous, and he came out to be about 25% to succeed. I don't doubt that he's an outstanding tournament (and satellite) player, but a >1000% ROI is a little trickier to achieve than it seems.

I dealt with this stuff a whiiiiiiiile ago (when these ministeps were brand new) to figure out if they were worth playing. After playing a bunch to get a feel for my chances and running some numbers, I basically came to three conclusions:
1) The ROI is HUGE for a good player.
2) The variance on cashes is ENORMOUS and you need to really invest in this and be sure that you're a winner.
3) The number of games that you have to play is GINORMONSTROUS. For a strong player, on average, youll play about 80 games (mostly in the form of step 1 freerolls) for every step 5 entry that you earn. So that means 160 games per cash. Though you'll have only paid about 8 buy ins. Do the math and it's like $30-$40 bucks an hour, but considering the absurd variance, you'd have to be a very patient soul to play these properly.


I wish I could give some more satisfying numbers on Adanthar's performance (like finish distributions at each step, etc), but party is being stubborn loading the account activity so I'll give a quick synopsis (Adanthar will probably chime in later).
A) Adanthar ran badly. No doubt about that. But that's part of the intolerable variance of this little challenge.
B) He didn't get past ministep 3. He spent almost all (maybe 85%) of his steps on ministep 1.
C) I would gladly take this bet up again with anyone.



It's amazing how split the forum was on the outcome of this bet when it turned out to be so heavily one-sided (or so I still think). It just goes to show you how bad we people are, intuitively, at grasping fuzzy probabilities and understanding the depths of variance. Doing computations away from the table can help fine-tune your intuition, not to mention keep you from getting an ear full of cider.

Cheers,

Everett

When they say freeroll to the next Step, do they credit your account with the entry+buyin and you can do whatever you want with that money? Or do you have to use it specifically for that next step?