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#42
09-23-2005, 06:25 PM
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Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
[ QUOTE ]
A stop-and-go is only profitable if you have some chance he will lay down a hand that is beating you on the flop. Good luck satisfying that condition here. If you have AK, he has AQ, and you only win half his stack when you could have had his whole stack by, at worst, giving him three outs twice, that is a mathematical disaster. So there is definitely a downside. The question is, in this situation, can you find me an upside? It is good to reduce your variance, but people tend to overestimate the extent to which a stop-and-go reduces their variance, and underestimate the value of the extra chips they gain by just pushing preflop. [/ QUOTE ] 
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#43
09-23-2005, 06:51 PM
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Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
I think some of you are too quick to say push.
What chip position were you in? Were you one of the tourney big stacks? You called the UTG raiser "tighty". How tight is tight? Would he fold on the button when folded to him? Would he fold the SB when folded to him? Had you seen him make pf raises then fold to a reraise? IMO, "playing to win" does not mean "I'm never folding AKs preflop". It means making the right decisions when it counts the most. Would you push if he showed you any pocket pair, knowing he'll call?
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#44
09-23-2005, 07:09 PM
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Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
[ QUOTE ]
Would you push if he showed you any pocket pair, knowing he'll call? [/ QUOTE ] this is the million dollar question. I really didnt feel like he would do this with AJ, AQ. he was short stacked for a reason...I played with this guy for 70+ hands and he wasnt raising nearly as often as he should be. I went back and looked at the Hand, here are the chip positions after the blinds were posted, I'am on the button. Seat 1: LethalRose (1204844 in chips) Seat 2: Neab (529924 in chips) Seat 4: Yankeefan77 (1085960 in chips) Seat 6: bbubba2 (634214 in chips) Seat 7: tijuanaguero (1186105 in chips) Seat 8: MB-2 (1755346 in chips) Seat 9: Axorm (642719 in chips)
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#45
09-23-2005, 07:15 PM
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Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
you sai dyou had 75% of the chips at the table??
W/ that position i definitely call you have to accumulate chips, you're probably best. (by call i mean push or Stop and go)
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#46
09-23-2005, 07:15 PM
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Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
[ QUOTE ]
I have 75% of the chips at my table. [/ QUOTE ] guess not
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#47
09-23-2005, 07:16 PM
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Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
stop n go isnt worth it and fnurt made a really good post pointing it out
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#49
09-23-2005, 07:19 PM
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Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
[ QUOTE ]
Would you push if he showed you any pocket pair, knowing he'll call? [/ QUOTE ] Absolutely not, but to say that his range is only pocket pairs is wrong.
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#50
09-23-2005, 07:35 PM
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Re: 11 Left in 10r - Is a fold here reasonable?
What do you think the range is for tight player to open 5XBB = half his stack UTG on the bubble 7-handed.
Especially after watching him for 70+ hands and he hasn't done anything unussual. It's very possible that you are not ahead.
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